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January 5th, 2021 at 6:27:47 AM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 239
Posts: 6095
Sorry to change the topic, but I couldn't find a thread on the Georgia senate election today.

The betting odds at BetFair indicate a 45% chance on a tied Senate, not counting the vice president, after the election. For there to be a tie, both Democrats would have to win. I thought this probability was running only about 20% after the presidential election.

I can't think of any brilliant thoughts, but thought the topic was worth discussion.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
January 5th, 2021 at 8:03:13 AM permalink
SOOPOO
Member since: Feb 19, 2014
Threads: 22
Posts: 4182
Quote: Wizard
Sorry to change the topic, but I couldn't find a thread on the Georgia senate election today.

The betting odds at BetFair indicate a 45% chance on a tied Senate, not counting the vice president, after the election. For there to be a tie, both Democrats would have to win. I thought this probability was running only about 20% after the presidential election.

I can't think of any brilliant thoughts, but thought the topic was worth discussion.


Trusting polls is a failing proposition..... But I wouldn't be surprised if Perdue wins but Loeffler loses. Actually, out of the 4 possibilities, the only one that would shock me is a Loeffler win and a Perdue loss.

I read a take on the betting.... it basically said that most political betting is done by rich white men, who would favor.... rich white men.... Of course Loeffler is a woman..... but she is not a Black minister....

The country rebuked Trump, now let's hope Georgia can rebuke liberalism/progressivism. I'm not optimistic.
January 5th, 2021 at 8:12:12 AM permalink
terapined
Member since: Aug 6, 2014
Threads: 73
Posts: 11821
Dems take GA
At the Trump rally for the Senators, Trump talks about how he won GA in a landslide and then rants about the presidential election.
There are billboards up in rural GA telling voters not to vote because republicans have not supported Trump enough.
In the final days when campaigning is so important because the race is so tight, Perdue is quarantined.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/01/05/gop-pollster-says-the-next-48-hours-are-going-to-be-among-the-worst-ever-for-republicans.html
Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World"
January 5th, 2021 at 8:21:57 AM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 29
Posts: 12550
I have no idea what will happen with the GA runoffs.

If the Dems do somehow pull it off, I’m gonna say it was because of Mitch blocking the $2k stimulus from a vote.
“A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman
January 5th, 2021 at 8:26:46 AM permalink
SOOPOO
Member since: Feb 19, 2014
Threads: 22
Posts: 4182
Quote: ams288
I have no idea what will happen with the GA runoffs.

If the Dems do somehow pull it off, I’m gonna say it was because of Mitch blocking the $2k stimulus from a vote.



That is a small reason. The BIG reason is Trump dissuading people that would vote for Republicans to vote. The Democrats are already salivating on just how many additional trillion dollars they will be able to spend.... money that will crush us as soon as there are interest rates that will spiral our debt service.... but do you think more or less than 5% of Democrat voters would even understand that sentence?
January 5th, 2021 at 8:36:05 AM permalink
terapined
Member since: Aug 6, 2014
Threads: 73
Posts: 11821
Quote: SOOPOO
That is a small reason. The BIG reason is Trump dissuading people that would vote for Republicans to vote. The Democrats are already salivating on just how many additional trillion dollars they will be able to spend.... money that will crush us as soon as there are interest rates that will spiral our debt service.... but do you think more or less than 5% of Democrat voters would even understand that sentence?

I dont even understand where you are coming from
The world will not end if the Dems win Lol
If the Dems win, I imagine policys similar to Obama's 1st term. I'm looking forward to Harris breaking ties. You act as if Bernie Sanders won. Middle of the road Joe won and I expect him to stay in the middle of the road.
Are you developing Biden Derangement syndrome.
I attack Trump with facts
You attack with fantastical predictions that are BS
Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World"
January 5th, 2021 at 9:02:39 AM permalink
SOOPOO
Member since: Feb 19, 2014
Threads: 22
Posts: 4182
Quote: terapined
I dont even understand where you are coming from
The world will not end if the Dems win Lol
If the Dems win, I imagine policys similar to Obama's 1st term. I'm looking forward to Harris breaking ties. You act as if Bernie Sanders won. Middle of the road Joe won and I expect him to stay in the middle of the road.
Are you developing Biden Derangement syndrome.
I attack Trump with facts
You attack with fantastical predictions that are BS


Ed, I hope you are right. My fears are what I SAW. Democrat run cities burning down without leaders willing to protect life and property. Clear platform to give away more money (extra $1400) to many (my wife, and kids) who DON"T need it. My 'predictions' are just that. I take all the information available to me and make an educated guess. As far as the economy, I have spoken to many who make their living in finance, stock market, small business, and they ALL agree with me. Might we all be wrong? Hopefully!!! I think if you want to give me a label, BDS is just wrong. Perhaps DDS (Democrat Derangement Syndrome). I think Biden will try to 'keep it in the middle', but I fear Pelosi/Shumer will overpower him. Remember, the House and Senate send Bills to the President to sign. I would bet you Biden will veto ZERO bills sent to him over his four years.

Anyway, this may be a moot discussion.... or it may be life for the next (at least two) years.
January 5th, 2021 at 9:43:10 AM permalink
terapined
Member since: Aug 6, 2014
Threads: 73
Posts: 11821
Quote: SOOPOO
Ed, I hope you are right. My fears are what I SAW. Democrat run cities burning down without leaders willing to protect life and property.

yawn
You "SAW" ?????????????????????
Hmm. Can you testify in court what you "SAW"
What did you see in real life with your own eyes.
Edited videos dont count.
What have you seen with your own eyes that is so terrible??????????????????????????
I have been travelling all over the country
I have visited multiple downtowns all over the country
Only protest I "SAW" was in Santa Fe regarding a statue.
Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World"
January 5th, 2021 at 10:23:35 AM permalink
Dalex64
Member since: Mar 8, 2014
Threads: 3
Posts: 3687
Trump is in petulant child / burn it down mode.

His ego requires his loss to be blamed on elections being rigged. To support this, he is sabotaging the republicans in GA so that they also lose, so that he can proclaim that they were also rigged.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts." Daniel Patrick Moynihan
January 5th, 2021 at 10:29:55 AM permalink
SOOPOO
Member since: Feb 19, 2014
Threads: 22
Posts: 4182
Quote: terapined
yawn
You "SAW" ?????????????????????
Hmm. Can you testify in court what you "SAW"
What did you see in real life with your own eyes.
Edited videos dont count.
What have you seen with your own eyes that is so terrible??????????????????????????
I have been travelling all over the country
I have visited multiple downtowns all over the country
Only protest I "SAW" was in Santa Fe regarding a statue.


i saw the remnants of stores on Hertel Avenue in Buffalo, New York. I saw looted stores on Main Street near the University at Buffalo in Buffalo, NY.

LOL on 'edited videos don't count'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I have seen enough rioting and looting on CNN/MSNBC/FOX/CBS/NBC/ABC to not care what 'editing' was done to know the BLM looting and rioting and destruction was real. You can argue that the looters and rioters were not 'real' BLM, but you can't seriously argue that the looting and rioting didn't occur and wasn't widespread!

Do you think that the 'autonomous zones' in Portland and/or Seattle didn't happen because SOOPOO didn't see them with his own eyes? That I should I only believe things I see with my own eyes?

It is getting hard to argue with you when your argument is that nonsensical.....