ROEvember is Coming

Quote: SOOPOO

As long as you fully understand that virtually no one agrees with you, feel free to believe as you do. Since you are going to die, why do you care so much about the ambient temperature?

I agree with him; life has no inherent value.

That's not the same thing as saying that life has no value whatsoever and nor does it mean anyone who feels that way must immediately commit suicide in order to be philosophically consistent. Given one's own sentience and intellectual understanding of things, that person might simply choose to go ahead and live it all the way out, or even to live as long as possible, while not denying the reality that they will die---that will be it---and that life will have had no inherent meaning.

Quote: Mission146

Yeah; she had to go to that liberal hotbed of Indiana, where Mike Pence is from, to do so.

Only because Indiana was too slow in enacting their own draconian law.

Quote:

Abortion is completely banned in Indiana with very limited exceptions because of a Indiana law that went into effect August 21, 2023.

Hey Tanko, where’s Indiana’s “sensible” 15-week ban? I thought that’s what the GOP wants!

Quote: Gandler

SOOPOO, we have talked about this in the past, they won more seats but still lost public opinion, because they were projected to win far more..... This is a loss compared to the level that was projected. And, they did not win the Senate (which again they should have easily.) Doing far worse than everyone is projecting (especially on "easy" races) is a loss.

You are right, the GOP has had the same mindset for a while. But, it has been a moot point because of Roe, now that Roe is repealed, they can actually inform policy based on their primary issue, this is why abortion is becoming the top issue again. Roe was far better for the GOP than the Dems (you may not agree, but it is a statement of fact.)

Last cycle was a partial win (being generous) for the GOP, they did not win the Senate (easily should have), and they won less than projected in the house. It was not the platinum lock that you keep pretending that it is.

https://harvardpolitics.com/2022-midterm-election-forecast/
(An example of a forecast shortly before the election, which was a couple days prior, earlier forecasts were far more red....) You can do your own research back to June and see in real time how many votes they lost as Roe was overturned.... It is not a hidden attribute, people call it "Roevember" for a reason...

Constantly saying they won the house so abortion does not matter politically, is a huge misnomer. They were always going to win the house, they lost many races that they should have (and ended up winning by a small margin only.)

Reading comprehension problem? Where do I EVER say that abortion (politically) doesn’t matter!?!? I SPECIFICALLY said if the Republicans dropped their abortion stance they would easily win because OTHER THAN ABORTION the Democrat platform is a disaster.

I know the Republicans were ‘projected’ to win more races. They didn’t. But each and every House race was contested. ALL. And the Republicans won more than the Democrats. That means that, EVEN FACTORING IN the Republican stance on abortion MORE than half of the House districts voted Republican. MORE than in 2020.

Why did the Repubs lose the Senate? I’ll go with two abysmal candidates (Walker/Oz) more so than abortion.

By the way, you say ‘they were always going to win the house’. Why is that do you think?

Quote: SOOPOO

Reading comprehension problem? Where do I EVER say that abortion (politically) doesn’t matter!?!? I SPECIFICALLY said if the Republicans dropped their abortion stance they would easily win because OTHER THAN ABORTION the Democrat platform is a disaster.

I know the Republicans were ‘projected’ to win more races. They didn’t. But each and every House race was contested. ALL. And the Republicans won more than the Democrats. That means that, EVEN FACTORING IN the Republican stance on abortion MORE than half of the House districts voted Republican. MORE than in 2020.

Why did the Repubs lose the Senate? I’ll go with two abysmal candidates (Walker/Oz) more so than abortion.

By the way, you say ‘they were always going to win the house’. Why is that do you think?

To the last question, midterm elections have historically favored the party opposite of the incumbent POTUS.

Quote: SOOPOO

Reading comprehension problem? Where do I EVER say that abortion (politically) doesn’t matter!?!? I SPECIFICALLY said if the Republicans dropped their abortion stance they would easily win because OTHER THAN ABORTION the Democrat platform is a disaster.

I know the Republicans were ‘projected’ to win more races. They didn’t. But each and every House race was contested. ALL. And the Republicans won more than the Democrats. That means that, EVEN FACTORING IN the Republican stance on abortion MORE than half of the House districts voted Republican. MORE than in 2020.

Why did the Repubs lose the Senate? I’ll go with two abysmal candidates (Walker/Oz) more so than abortion.

By the way, you say ‘they were always going to win the house’. Why is that do you think?

You say it implicitly by brining this up whenever abortion effects on GOP get brought up since last fall.....

Somebody says (paraphrasing both statements), "GOP is losing ground because of abortion issues"
You say, "GOP won the house in 2022" without giving any context that this was a mathematical certainty (they literally could not lose.) And, even so, they barely pulled it off (basically won the minimum they could.) And, they did not win the Senate (which is far more important, and they were projected to likely win.)

It is drum banging for something that was guaranteed and always going to happen.

As for candidates, yes both were terrible (maybe don't put up two pop culture jokes for one of the most important races in recent history?) But, this was far from the only factor. Especially when you get down to state and local elections.

It is not a reading comprehension problem at all, I am just spelling out what you are clearly implying.

They were going to lose those elections because that is how cycles work. This happens after almost every "power shift," it is just politics (at least over the last 30 years.) The swaps happen in mid-term cycles (it is easier for power to stay consistent in presidential election years.) If the GOP somehow wins the presidency next cycle, the same thing will happen to them (as it has), it is life. This is not a zing against Democrats, anymore than the coming GOP loss will not be a zing against the GOP. However, doing terrible in a guaranteed cycle is a zing against the GOP....

Quote: Gandler

You say it implicitly by brining this up whenever abortion effects on GOP get brought up since last fall.....

Somebody says (paraphrasing both statements), "GOP is losing ground because of abortion issues"
You say, "GOP won the house in 2022" without giving any context that this was a mathematical certainty (they literally could not lose.) And, even so, they barely pulled it off (basically won the minimum they could.) And, they did not win the Senate (which is far more important, and they were projected to likely win.)

It is drum banging for something that was guaranteed and always going to happen.

As for candidates, yes both were terrible (maybe don't put up two pop culture jokes for one of the most important races in recent history?) But, this was far from the only factor. Especially when you get down to state and local elections.

It is not a reading comprehension problem at all, I am just spelling out what you are clearly implying.

They were going to lose those elections because that is how cycles work. This happens after almost every "power shift," it is just politics (at least over the last 30 years.) The swaps happen in mid-term cycles (it is easier for power to stay consistent in presidential election years.) If the GOP somehow wins the presidency next cycle, the same thing will happen to them (as it has), it is life. This is not a zing against Democrats, anymore than the coming GOP loss will not be a zing against the GOP. However, doing terrible in a guaranteed cycle is a zing against the GOP....

I’m glad you try to read my mind. How about reading my posts instead? I have REPEATEDLY AND UNEQUIVOCALLY stated that if the Republicans would get off the abortion is bad bandwagon they would wipe the floor with the Democrats.

What a joke your post is! ‘Mathematical certainty’! It’s only a certainty because more districts prefer the Republican candidate over the Democrat candidate. If the Democrats had a reasonable platform then it would NOT have been a ‘mathematical certainty’ that they would lose!

I don’t want to fight with you. But please, if you are going to call me out, please call me out on what I post, not what you think I want to post!

Repeat summary. Despite the stupid anti-abortion Republican mantra, more congressional districts chose Republicans than Democrats. Some just care more about the border, crime, the economy, than abortion rights. So that’s how the Republicans won.

Quote: SOOPOO

I’m glad you try to read my mind. How about reading my posts instead? I have REPEATEDLY AND UNEQUIVOCALLY stated that if the Republicans would get off the abortion is bad bandwagon they would wipe the floor with the Democrats.

What a joke your post is! ‘Mathematical certainty’! It’s only a certainty because more districts prefer the Republican candidate over the Democrat candidate. If the Democrats had a reasonable platform then it would NOT have been a ‘mathematical certainty’ that they would lose!

I don’t want to fight with you. But please, if you are going to call me out, please call me out on what I post, not what you think I want to post!

Repeat summary. Despite the stupid anti-abortion Republican mantra, more congressional districts chose Republicans than Democrats. Some just care more about the border, crime, the economy, than abortion rights. So that’s how the Republicans won.

That is just not how election cycles or districting work. It was a mathematical certainty based on projections. And, they still won the worst way possible (based on models.)

By your logic the Democrats had an epic win in 2018 because of GOP policies because they won the house only (not the Senate). -By the way a far great win than the recent GOP win- But, this is how cycles work. I do not understand how this is controversial. The next major change will be for the Dems, I do not know when, depending what happens in 2024, maybe 2 years, maybe 4, (maybe 6) but that is how it works.

Republicans ended up with a net gain of 10 in 2022 (in 2014 they had a net gain of 14), Democrats ended up with a net gain of 40 in 2018, even the GOP back cycles are less than they used to be.

What I do also know for sure is the DNC is growing over the last 10 years:
https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ror/ror-odd-year-2023/historical-reg-stats.pdf

The idea that more people are switching to GOP is also absurd. Even if you give 100% of independent voters to the GOP (which is not the case), DNC still has the overwhelming lead.

I stand by what I have always said, the GOP will not win another popular vote for President (they never won a popular vote in my adult life in fact.) They will continue to make gains in clever districts, and elections where factors other than the popular vote are important (the U.S. Presidential elections are complicated, and somebody can win significantly despite receiving millions less votes.) But, the GOP will not win another nationwide popular vote (the one exception to this rule could be if the DNC puts up somebody completely idiotic, which they did with Clinton, but she still somehow destroyed on the popular vote.... So I am not even sure if this exception applies anymore.) So no, most people are not flocking to the GOP, and the GOP does not have the most registrations in the U.S. (nor will they again in my lifetime.)

If I turn out to be wrong about any of this (I will not be) I am happy to admit it at that time (which is something GOP voters never will say.)

Agree with you (Gandler) that the Democrat party is growing and the Republican party is shrinking. Illegals children are coming of age, and they are legal, and Democrat. People who are afraid their ‘benefits’ (Medicaid, food stamps, welfare, free cell phones) are increasing in number, and they ain’t Republican! But RIGHT NOW the Republicans will be adding more to their vote totals due to the ‘middle’ eschewing Democrat open borders, higher taxes, inflation, no bail, reparations, etc…. Those override Abortion. If the Dems just get better on a few of their weaknesses they have a pretty big head start.

Quote: SOOPOO

Agree with you (Gandler) that the Democrat party is growing and the Republican party is shrinking. Illegals children are coming of age, and they are legal, and Democrat. People who are afraid their ‘benefits’ (Medicaid, food stamps, welfare, free cell phones) are increasing in number, and they ain’t Republican! But RIGHT NOW the Republicans will be adding more to their vote totals due to the ‘middle’ eschewing Democrat open borders, higher taxes, inflation, no bail, reparations, etc…. Those override Abortion. If the Dems just get better on a few of their weaknesses they have a pretty big head start.

I remind you that the Dem candidate for President outpolled the GOP candidate 7 of the last 8 elections.

Quote: GenoDRPh

I remind you that the Dem candidate for President outpolled the GOP candidate 7 of the last 8 elections.

Of course. As far as the popular vote goes, I see no reasonable Dem candidate not winning easily. But as we all know, the election is determined by the handful of ‘battleground’ states. If the Repubs win NY then the world is upside down. If the Dems win Utah you don’t have to check other states.