The Coronavirus thread

I first noticed lots of hugging with evangelical Christian churches many years ago. It kind of spread to more conservative churches as well.

Not sure it that was the big influence or not.

Quote: rxwine

I first noticed lots of hugging with evangelical Christian churches many years ago. It kind of spread to more conservative churches as well.

Not sure it that was the big influence or not.

Never was into it at ton. Have a friend or two I see a few times a year and give a "biker hug" of sorts. That's it for the most part.

I am now predicting deficit for 2020 will exceed 2 TRILLION dollars. Tax collections will be WAY down as income will be WAY down. Capital gains will be WAY down. And for sure the government will be giving money away to those who did not save for the rainy day. Maybe bailouts for cruise industry. Airline industry. NYC. Not counting the actual costs of fighting the virus.

I'll also guess bankruptcies increase 20 fold from 2019.
How many restaurants can stay open with half the volume they had last year? Lots will close and not reopen.
Passing the plate at church? I'm sure lots less will be collected.
Convention planner. Take a furlough.
Hot dog salesman outside the Arena. Done.
Bellhop who lives off of tips. Toast.
(MY GUESS) Surgeon who does elective hips and knees. Not now.
Ticket broker. Hah!

My point is a large (10-20?) % of the present working population will be either unemployed or underemployed for months.

Quote: SOOPOO

I am now predicting deficit for 2020 will exceed 2 TRILLION dollars. Tax collections will be WAY down as income will be WAY down. Capital gains will be WAY down. And for sure the government will be giving money away to those who did not save for the rainy day. Maybe bailouts for cruise industry. Airline industry. NYC. Not counting the actual costs of fighting the virus.

I'll also guess bankruptcies increase 20 fold from 2019.
How many restaurants can stay open with half the volume they had last year? Lots will close and not reopen.
Passing the plate at church? I'm sure lots less will be collected.
Convention planner. Take a furlough.
Hot dog salesman outside the Arena. Done.
Bellhop who lives off of tips. Toast.
(MY GUESS) Surgeon who does elective hips and knees. Not now.
Ticket broker. Hah!

My point is a large (10-20?) % of the present working population will be either unemployed or underemployed for months.

This is what scares me the most about all of this. The economic consequences are going to be devastating...

Quote: petroglyph

One thing I will be glad of is, people will quit hugging each other all the time.

. Agreed. It is simply not proper for males to hug.
I

Quote: petroglyph

Anyone wearing a bouquet that contains Tea tree oil ... stops my ability to breathe.

Stay away from The M casino and The Venetian, each famous for micro drops of the stuff.

Social Distancing is now mandated by schools, employers, the military, etc.

publix supermarket ended 24 hour service and will close stores and pharmacies at 8:00pm for sanitizing and restocking.

Economic consequences will be severe but I'm sure someone will come up with some adjectives about "displacement" rather than bankruptcy stampede.

Quote: SOOPOO

And for sure the government will be giving money away to those who did not save for the rainy day. .

isn't that what the government is also supposed to do in good economic times? Prepare for the rainy day.

Quote: rxwine

isn't that what the government is also supposed to do in good economic times? Prepare for the rainy day.

Good point. I hate that we spend more than we take in every year. No end in sight. When interest rates eventually go up it will overwhelm the tax collecting ability. No one. Not the Dems. Not the Repubs. Are willing to make the hard decisions to decrease giveaways and increase taxes.

A friend of a friend was on a Goldman Sachs dial in several hours ago. Sent through this:


“
Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1500 of their investee companies dialed in. The key takeaways were:

- Over the next 6-8 weeks we are going to see a global health based and economic collapse.

- 50% of Americans will contract it (150M people)

- 70% of Germany will contract it (58M people)

- Of those impacted 80% will be early stage, 15% mid stage and 5% critical stage.

- Mortality rate of an average of 2% and hence do the math on the lives it will take in the above markets. It’s in millions...

- Europe is pretty screwed and so is the US. Need both of them to effectively control the pandemic (like several Asian countries like Taiwan and Singapore) to ensure that the global economy does not collapse further. However they don’t seem well equipped at all.

- China’s economy will be largely impacted and all exports, imports to and fro China will be hit impacting raw material and the global supply chain.

- Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years under 2%

- S&P 500’will see a negative growth rate of -15 to -20%

- Stock markets will collapse only to hopefully recover in the 2nd half of the year

- Social Distancing for the right period of time is the only way to control this and if it’s for too short a period there can be a relapse

Really really depressing call.
“

Quote: Aussie

Really really depressing call.
“

It's not a 'call', it's the worst
case scenario. You should
see the worst case scenario
they had for WWII. We were
going to be living in Japanese
and Nazi camps. How did that
turn out.

Remember how the media spun
the worst case scenario for
the Mueller Report, like it was
gospel truth? Nobody ever calls
these things even close to how
they eventually work out.

Quote: Evenbob

It's not a 'call', it's the worst
case scenario. You should
see the worst case scenario
they had for WWII. We were
going to be living in Japanese
and Nazi camps. How did that
turn out.

Remember how the media spun
the worst case scenario for
the Mueller Report, like it was
gospel truth? Nobody ever calls
these things even close to how
they eventually work out.

The word “call” refers to it being a phone call. :S