The Coronavirus thread

How many deaths justify the damage to the economy?

Quote: Dalex64

How many deaths justify the damage to the economy?

Zero. Survival of the fittest.

Quote: kenarman

If the critical all die that is roughly 10K deaths to date. Last year's death rate in the US was 54K / week. These numbers are somewhat similar for any of the countries even Italy and Spain.

You might say that if coronavirus deaths reach 1,142 per week we have advanced the expected death rate due to an aging population by two years.

Data from census bureau International data Base - Deaths increase as country gets older
Deaths/Week - Year - Change - USA
53,222 2020 0
53,793 2021 571
54,364 2022 1,142
55,000 2023 1,777
55,701 2024 2,478
56,468 2025 3,245
57,236 2026 4,014
58,004 2027 4,782
58,906 2028 5,684
59,808 2029 6,585
60,777 2030 7,555
61,745 2031 8,523
62,713 2032 9,490
63,678 2033 10,456
64,712 2034 11,490
65,745 2035 12,523
66,707 2036 13,485
67,667 2037 14,445
68,625 2038 15,403
69,511 2039 16,289
70,396 2040 17,173

Deaths/Week - Year - Change -Italy
12,817 2020 0
12,948 2021 131
13,077 2022 260
13,193 2023 376
13,308 2024 491
13,421 2025 604
13,545 2026 729
13,668 2027 852
13,778 2028 961
13,898 2029 1,082
14,018 2030 1,201
14,148 2031 1,332
14,265 2032 1,449
14,394 2033 1,577
14,521 2034 1,704
14,647 2035 1,830
14,795 2036 1,979
14,931 2037 2,114
15,077 2038 2,260
15,221 2039 2,405
15,364 2040 2,547

Belarus, Mexico and Brazil have decided not to require any quarantines.

Quote: AcesAndEights

A) We are still on the upswing of the curve. EVEN WITH the extreme measures taken, it is STILL going to get worse before it gets better.

B) If we had done nothing, the death toll would be catastrophically worse right now (and also, still getting worse).

I find your argument uninspiring.

I would be glad to see you back up your claim with some kind of number, statistical analysis of what is going on. All I have seen is "this will make it better trust us". I find your response uninformed.

Shot:

Quote: Rush Limbaugh

"Folks, this coronavirus thing, I want to try to put this in perspective for you. It looks like the coronavirus is being weaponized as yet another element to bring down Donald Trump. Now, I want to tell you the truth about the coronavirus. (interruption) You think I’m wrong about this? You think I’m missing it by saying that’s… (interruption) Yeah, I’m dead right on this. The coronavirus is the common cold, folks." -Rush Limbaugh on February 24, 2020.

Chaser:

Quote: New York Post

The Pentagon is buying 100,000 body bags to store the corpses of Americans killed by the coronavirus.

The body bags will go to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which already sent refrigerated trucks to New York in anticipation of a wave of death that overwhelms morgues.

So far, about 5,100 US residents have died, but White House projections predict 100,000 to 240,000 COVID-19 victims, even if social distancing guidelines are maintained.

My two friends pulled through their severe infections. I'm happy for them even if other statistics dwarf those cases that were aboard the cruise ship.

Quote: kenarman

The US is currently a little over 5K deaths and has another 5K in serious and critical condition. If the critical all die that is roughly 10K deaths to date. Last years death rate in the US was 54K / week. These numbers are somewhat similar for any of the countries even Italy and Spain. I see nothing in these numbers that justifies the damage being done to the economy and the fabric of US society. Politicians are doing things because the sheeples are all screaming "you must do something" . The media is just pumping up the hysteria, I have yet to see any of them put the numbers in perspective. The reports aren't we have 5% more deaths this week than normal. The media report is 5,000 COVID 19 DEATHS. There are going to be riots in the streets if this goes on too long.

Riots in the streets are prohibited due to the social distancing order (tongue in cheek).

I guess I have the advantage of knowing personally many of the doctors and nurses on the front lines in New York. I guess you think the need to set up hospital tents in Central Park is hysteria? The need for a Navy hospital ship is hysteria? The freaking Javits center is now a hospital is media hysteria? The need to turn any square foot in a major NY hospital into an ICU is hysteria? The need for refrigerated trucks because the morgue can't handle the volume of dead is hysteria?

I do agree with you that at some point the economy will need to open, and it will NOT be 100% safe at the time. There WILL be deaths atrributable to COVID-19 whenever we do open things up. I think we must wait AT LEAST until the normal medical infrastructure can handle the caseload without using the cafeteria as a step-down unit.

Of course the media will highlight the extremes. It's what they do. From my conversations with the front line workers, I believe they have been unable to convey the absolute disaster that being in a hospital there now is.

I often mention that 30,000 or so will die from flu each year in the USA. This crisis is different. It will be a multiple of 30,000 when done, and the flooding of our health care system is unprecedented over the last century.

Dr Fauci, quote "This is an unusual disease. I'm fascinated … by what I would call the pathogenesis. You know, you get so many people who do well and then some who just bingo, they're on a respirator, they're on ECMO, and they're dead. I mean, the dichotomy between that, there's something there, that we're missing from a pathogenesis standpoint. And I don't think it's only if you're elderly or if you have underlying conditions. There's something else going on there that hopefully we'll ultimately figure out."

Probably meant ventilator. Although, i'm pretty sure "He's on a respirator" was in pretty common saying by the general public at one time. At least the way I remember.

Quote: kenarman

Quote: AcesAndEights

A) We are still on the upswing of the curve. EVEN WITH the extreme measures taken, it is STILL going to get worse before it gets better.

B) If we had done nothing, the death toll would be catastrophically worse right now (and also, still getting worse).

I find your argument uninspiring.

I would be glad to see you back up your claim with some kind of number, statistical analysis of what is going on. All I have seen is "this will make it better trust us". I find your response uninformed.

You're right, I don't have hard numbers to back up (B), because one can't prove what would have happened in an alternate reality. For (A) I think it's pretty obvious looking at any chart of the spread in any US state that we are still increase exponentially almost anywhere. Except maybe WA state. Just one source: https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Quote: SOOPOO

Riots in the streets are prohibited due to the social distancing order (tongue in cheek).

I guess I have the advantage of knowing personally many of the doctors and nurses on the front lines in New York. I guess you think the need to set up hospital tents in Central Park is hysteria? The need for a Navy hospital ship is hysteria? The freaking Javits center is now a hospital is media hysteria? The need to turn any square foot in a major NY hospital into an ICU is hysteria? The need for refrigerated trucks because the morgue can't handle the volume of dead is hysteria?

I do agree with you that at some point the economy will need to open, and it will NOT be 100% safe at the time. There WILL be deaths atrributable to COVID-19 whenever we do open things up. I think we must wait AT LEAST until the normal medical infrastructure can handle the caseload without using the cafeteria as a step-down unit.

Of course the media will highlight the extremes. It's what they do. From my conversations with the front line workers, I believe they have been unable to convey the absolute disaster that being in a hospital there now is.

I often mention that 30,000 or so will die from flu each year in the USA. This crisis is different. It will be a multiple of 30,000 when done, and the flooding of our health care system is unprecedented over the last century.

No I don't believe it is hysteria but I think that stoking the fear is not what the media should be doing. I have asked this before SOOPOO but have you seen any projections yet on what percent of deaths flattening the curve is going to save from the ultimate total. This is the number that I think is not large enough to make our current shutdowns worth the cost. As you have just stated the hospitals are a disaster already. We can build new temporary hospital beds but can we find the medical staff to man them? What percentage of the deaths are we saving right now? Do you have any indication of what percentage of those going into the ICU are coming out?

The so called basket case of Italy has 230 deaths per million of population as of today, a very small percentage of the population.