The Coronavirus thread

From The Economist magazine

Quote:

Lessons from the Spanish flu: social distancing can be good for the economy
Data from the 1918 pandemic in America suggest that places with the tightest restrictions fared best

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/31/lessons-from-the-spanish-flu-social-distancing-can-be-good-for-the-economy

I just heard a commentator say that there are now "more cases of coronavirus in New York City than in China'...

It is time to toss out China's numbers and stop making comparisons to what numbers they provide. The evidence available to us about the virus from a population that we can prove used authoritarian methods similar to China, is a smaller country, and has reported 12% of the cases (South Korea) reports 125 new cases on 3/30 while China reported 81.

China's numbers are bogus, they lied to us about the virus from the start, and they have a puppet running the WHO.

I am not even sure the Johns Hopkins tracker should still show their info, or that of any other country not providing accurate information.

Quote: RonC

I just heard a commentator say that there are now "more cases of coronavirus in New York City than in China'...

It is time to toss out China's numbers and stop making comparisons to what numbers they provide. The evidence available to us about the virus from a population that we can prove used authoritarian methods similar to China, is a smaller country, and has reported 12% of the cases (South Korea) reports 125 new cases on 3/30 while China reported 81.

China's numbers are bogus, they lied to us about the virus from the start, and they have a puppet running the WHO.

I am not even sure the Johns Hopkins tracker should still show their info, or that of any other country not providing accurate information.

I don't think anybody trusts the China numbers
but
It looks like they got it beat
I trust the South Korea numbers. When its all said and done, SK will be the poster country on how to beat the virus and the USA will be the poster country on how you let it run amok. SK and USA reported their 1st cases on the same day. Both govts had the same time to react, SK reacted and took it seriously, the USA reacted by taking it lightly
The Johns Hopkins tracker is the best info out there. The numbers are not accurate but upwards trend is accurate

Apparently the biggest economic problem right now, is the government infrastructure can't meet the what is approximately 10x it's normal pace of requests for economic aid from individuals and businesses. I say, 10x but it could be more than that.

Nothing is set up to process at this rate. That you can immediately worry about I believe.

Quote: kenarman

No I don't believe it is hysteria but I think that stoking the fear is not what the media should be doing. I have asked this before SOOPOO but have you seen any projections yet on what percent of deaths flattening the curve is going to save from the ultimate total. This is the number that I think is not large enough to make our current shutdowns worth the cost. As you have just stated the hospitals are a disaster already. We can build new temporary hospital beds but can we find the medical staff to man them? What percentage of the deaths are we saving right now? Do you have any indication of what percentage of those going into the ICU are coming out?

The so called basket case of Italy has 230 deaths per million of population as of today, a very small percentage of the population.

I have. I can't remember if it is on Cuomo's or Trump's press conference. They show a flat curve with 1-200,000 deaths using social distancing, and a peaked curve showing 1- 2,000,000 deaths without the lockdown and social distancing.
I personally do not believe the deaths would be as high as they estimate. I fully believe the infection rate is much higher than we believe, and also that the death rate is much lower than we believe. If in the US they are reporting 200,000 positive tests, I'd be stunned if it is less than 1,000,000 who've had or have the virus.

Quote: terapined

I don't think anybody trusts the China numbers
but
It looks like they got it beat
I trust the South Korea numbers. When its all said and done, SK will be the poster country on how to beat the virus and the USA will be the poster country on how you let it run amok. SK and USA reported their 1st cases on the same day. Both govts had the same time to react, SK reacted and took it seriously, the USA reacted by taking it lightly
The Johns Hopkins tracker is the best info out there. The numbers are not accurate but upwards trend is accurate

It looks like they (China) have it beat...until you watch the 60 Minutes Australia piece...

South Korea does appear to be the poster country for doing a good job, but the US will likely not be the worst in the handling of the crisis. We were slow to react, with politicians at many levels not taking it seriously and telling people to go have a good time even after the infections started here. Our testing program did not get started quickly or robustly enough and there were plenty of mistakes.

That being said, I don't think that our citizens would react well to the authoritarian handling of the crisis by South Korea. Or China, for that matter.

Nothing will be beaten by anyone until we have a workable treatment regime and a vaccine. This is not disappearing in one cycle; the experts have been consistent on that.

We should take a long, hard look at the whole crisis when it is over...but it should be by people without politics in play.

"The Navy is expected to announce it has relieved the captain who sounded the alarm about an outbreak of COVID-19 aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt, according to two U.S. officials."

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/navy-expected-relieve-captain-who-raised-alarm-about-covid-19-n1175351?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma&fbclid=IwAR0yqS8phiUbRFttjRs90H9i3EMg301HCCQUcdTNKDSnrjiJHBMG_0USgMo&fbclid=IwAR2-tbzMQH7KlzXyxKUxtMxuAJVHJhPogLooBB-N9xadI5oaFnPF5Pf9DKc&fbclid=IwAR3WO4csVtD-nZ0TdZW5redXk7PxRekXdW81wKzlTnwr0NDe5T69QBOBYzo&fbclid=IwAR2jBANnF6wifaKmDn8elottO4X6ixKEOO-qh-aUuek20Qo8cjg2rB4t6Hk&fbclid=IwAR1TJ-nOdpJge7g2iinHNziknrZOiMWHAHqaGH0ZlTtlHKEctTfh8C_kthI

There is probably more to the story having to do with how his letter got released to the press. Perhaps he caused that to happen. People do question orders things within the military, but letting it get outside the chain of command is frowned upon and, in this case, a national security issue, A carrier being out of service is not a good thing at any point. letting everyone know that a carrier may be out of service is just not a signal to send...at least let the enemy find out by spying; don't just tell them via the press.

The sailors deserve good care and to be taken care of properly; that is no the issue.

How to decide when to open up the economy?

Remember.... 30,000 deaths a year from the flu... NO ONE even remotely thinks that if social distancing could eliminate them that we as a society would adopt social distancing to save those 30,000 lives.

If 200 people a day will die from coronavirus without the country being locked down, do we open it up? What is the direct accepted death rate to decide not to have a nationwide lockdown?

That's my guess.....

Quote: SOOPOO

How to decide when to open up the economy?

Remember.... 30,000 deaths a year from the flu... NO ONE even remotely thinks that if social distancing could eliminate them that we as a society would adopt social distancing to save those 30,000 lives.

If 200 people a day will die from coronavirus without the country being locked down, do we open it up? What is the direct accepted death rate to decide not to have a nationwide lockdown?

That's my guess.....

After enough time of everyone being cooped up I have a feeling more and more people will become more accepting of higher death rates if their lives can return to some sense of normalcy.

I have no idea what specific number of “acceptable” deaths would be, but sometime around May 1 I think people’s attitudes will start changing.

It’s actually scary (sad?) how little this whole thing has affected my life. I worked from home already. Haven’t been in the office since 2016. We all got an email from our CEO this week saying our company is incredibly well positioned (many of our customers are supply chain companies and are getting SLAMMED) and there are no plans for layoffs at this time.

Besides not being able to go the the gym daily and being unsure about when I’ll be able to travel to Vegas next (aiming for Memorial Day but not particularly hopeful at the point), my life is pretty much the same. I am incredibly thankful.