The Trump implosion thread!

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23 members have voted

July 29th, 2020 at 8:39:36 PM permalink
Tripdufan
Member since: Oct 3, 2019
Threads: 0
Posts: 710
lol @ the YouTube algorithm. Alec Baldwin who?

July 30th, 2020 at 2:46:45 PM permalink
petroglyph
Member since: Aug 3, 2014
Threads: 25
Posts: 6227
Quote: Mission146
I really don’t understand why you would continue to insult someone with an economics degree by suggesting that the person does not understand that events can impact the market in the short-term.
Did you see Kodak jumping 2000% and going into Pharma? I don't know how people that want to understand investing can get ahead of trades like that.
The last official act of any government is to loot the treasury. GW
July 30th, 2020 at 3:20:06 PM permalink
Mission146
Administrator
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 23
Posts: 4147
Quote: petroglyph
Did you see Kodak jumping 2000% and going into Pharma? I don't know how people that want to understand investing can get ahead of trades like that.


I don't know, either. The only thing that I would have to say about that is that many people focus on particular industries and spend a lot of time pouring over obscure news sources and information. I also imagine that some information probably slips out to certain folks, probably in exchange or implied exchange for future favors or information...but not blatantly enough that it could constitute insider trading or trading on inside information.

I can't really speak too much to playing the stock market, because there are a lot of different strategies out there, approaches and philosophies. If I had to consider myself good at anything stock-wise, (I actually mentioned some good picks I made in a thread on WoV) it's playing adjustments upward when a stock has tanked for one reason or another. Something like CV-19 is obvious when you have something like Penn National Gaming (one of my picks that two people I speak to privately made money on) which goes from $38.17 to $4.52 in days.

It's not hard to predict that PENN is going to correct on that one, to some extent. Of course, I liked something like $19.00 to sell it as my one-year target price....and it is currently sitting at $36.81, so that tells you how much I know. LOL. Of course, my buy number was $9.00, so more than doubling your money in just over a month is obviously pretty good.

But, it tanked before anyone even really knew anything about how the COVID situation would play out long-term. More than that, they were paying their workers for at least a month (they announced this) before the Federal Government even did the unemployment thing...okay, companies that are expecting to be in bad shape usually don't pay people for at least a month when they know they will not be bringing in revenue.

And then you listen to the actual earnings reports, and here you have people saying that PENN could make literally NOT ONE CENT for the rest of the year and they will still be fine financially. Not. One. Cent. This is not a company that is going under, so the crazy drop in their stock price is a huge overreaction and is completely unjustified.

I've made some other good picks with American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Spirit Airlines (SAVE), Ford (F) and a few others. One of the folks is willing to verify this to Wizard privately if I am challenged on it. Spirit Airlines is well-positioned for when travel comes back in this environment. People are going to want to save money when we do get back to traveling, and their financials look good.

AEO was another one where they said they would survive even if they didn't make another penny this year.

But, these are not normal times.

In normal times, I would mostly look for companies that miss revenue/earnings estimates because that's almost always going to cause a drop in stock price, but those things are just that--estimates. There's also usually a reason why that can be found from reading the Earnings Reports and listening to the full earnings call. Sometimes, the earnings will be down because they decided to pay off a loan faster than originally planned...oh, less debt that they are paying interest on? Yeah, I'm pretty sure that's a good thing. You can also look at the balance sheets and other financials and, in some cases, the company actually has book value (per share) that meaningfully exceeds the actual share price. That's a win.

Anyway, people jump on the Earnings Reports misses, particularly the least skilled investors or those who own the stock, but are concerned that it's going to drop below where they started to have a profit and not come back...so then they sell it.

In addition to the balance sheets, financials, reading earnings reports and listening to earnings calls...you can also pay attention to what the major institutional investors are doing. If a particular stock has a high percentage of institutional investors in general, or at least relative to other companies in that industry, that means that the big boys with the big money like that stock long-term...so you'll usually not take a loss even though you might not always have an instant gainer.

But, if you want to do these things, my advice would be to pick a specialty and study up on historical tendencies. There are also a bunch of fancy methods of trading other than buying/selling stocks straight up, but I personally see no reason to complicate things unless you want to become a specialist and the novelty things. Bonds can also be pretty good, but that's an entirely different thing to have to learn.

But, yeah, I would study up on a particular industry or two and learn everything there is to know about it. In normal times, I consider myself pretty good at picking corrections in retail and hospitality off of bad earnings reports. I also don't really invest because I don't have a ton of money and I get bored with it pretty quickly. I was pretty intensely focused on the markets when CV-19 first started to boom for about a month, then I got bored with it and barely glance at it except for when one friend of mine texts me and says one of my picks is still doing really well.

After PENN, he also says this, "I love your advice on buying, but I will not listen to you on when to sell."

So, take all of this with a grain of salt, my degree makes me not even in the neighborhood of being an expert on stocks and I generally pay nearly zero attention to them. Again, I get bored very quickly.
"War is the remedy that our enemies have chosen..let us give them all they want." William T. Sherman
July 30th, 2020 at 5:39:38 PM permalink
DRich
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 51
Posts: 4944
I watch CNBC every morning for an hour or two and I am terrible at picking stocks. Thankfully I don't have a lot of money to invest.
At my age a Life In Prison sentence is not much of a detrrent.
July 30th, 2020 at 5:51:22 PM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 29
Posts: 12422


“I just got off....”

Probably should have just moved that last sentence to his next tweet in the thread. 😂😂😂😂
“A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman
July 31st, 2020 at 3:06:13 PM permalink
aceofspades
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 83
Posts: 2019
Quote: ams288


“I just got off....”

Probably should have just moved that last sentence to his next tweet in the thread. 😂😂😂😂


Really, we are now using eulogistic Tweets as a form of comedy?
July 31st, 2020 at 3:22:39 PM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 29
Posts: 12422
Quote: aceofspades
Really, we are now using eulogistic Tweets as a form of comedy?


Yes, but only when the tweet implies he blew his wad over his good friend’s death.
“A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman
July 31st, 2020 at 3:47:32 PM permalink
Gandler
Member since: Aug 15, 2019
Threads: 27
Posts: 4236
Quote: aceofspades
Quote: ams288


“I just got off....”

Probably should have just moved that last sentence to his next tweet in the thread. 😂😂😂😂


Really, we are now using eulogistic Tweets as a form of comedy?


I actually like Hermaine Cain (not politically), but he seemed like a good guy, and he was endlessly successful in almost everything he did.

But, I have to admit, that is a humorous typo. Cain enjoyed cringe humor (remeber when he opened the Debate by Reciting the Pokémon song) , so I am sure he would not be upset....
August 1st, 2020 at 3:19:23 AM permalink
Shrek
Member since: Aug 13, 2019
Threads: 6
Posts: 1635
Trump says he'll 'bring fairness' to Big Tech via an executive order if Congress doesn't take action

I definitely support this!! I'm tired of sites like YouTube recommending me crap that promotes BLM and the gay agenda!! 👏👏
August 1st, 2020 at 8:14:20 AM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 29
Posts: 12422
Quote: ams288


Donny is golfing today.

Just two weeks to go until the weekend he couldn’t throw out the opening pitch at the Yankees game cause he was too busy! lol
“A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman