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Quote: rxwine

I expect technology to take jobs anyway. I’m just wondering who will be right about new jobs being created when it does.

Imagine mostly dead Monday morning traffic at a retail store. This goes on through the afternoon. Multiply that by twenty stores. One truck driver can deliver it all, whereas, you would probably want at least two employees at each store, if not more.

I think if a good chunk of the brick-and-mortar went away, then online ordering/shipping would become even more efficient in its approach resulting in a need for fewer drivers relative to the quantity of items being shipped. Also, less, "Dead time," spent traveling from one drop off point to the other. It basically becomes a modified version of the postal service. Also, they might even stop delivering to certain people completely using technology to determine whether or not the distance/time allows it to be profitable.

Quote: Mission146

Imagine mostly dead Monday morning traffic at a retail store. This goes on through the afternoon. Multiply that by twenty stores. One truck driver can deliver it all, whereas, you would probably want at least two employees at each store, if not more.

But then what about the busy times? Those times the local employees are probably more productive. It is far more efficient to move a pallet of dog food to one store than 50 individual addresses.

Bricks will survive, just not as many locations. The USA in the 2000s probably had twice the retail floorspace it needed. Look for delivery fees to go up over time. Perhaps way up.

Quote: AZDuffman

But then what about the busy times? Those times the local employees are probably more productive. It is far more efficient to move a pallet of dog food to one store than 50 individual addresses.

Bricks will survive, just not as many locations. The USA in the 2000s probably had twice the retail floorspace it needed. Look for delivery fees to go up over time. Perhaps way up.

The busy times are relevant only insofar as they are brick-and-mortar's last bastion of survival.

Here's the thing: The fifty bags of dog food are going to fifty different addresses anyway. It's also more efficient for one warehouse to take 500 pallets of dog food and redistribute those more-or-less directly to 25,000 addresses than for ten different warehouses to take fifty pallets apiece and each sending two pallets to twenty-five different stores where they are purchased by the consumer (takes employees) and then taken to the same address at which they would ultimately arrive anyway.

So, that's my point. The more brick-and-mortar locations close up shop, the more efficient something like Amazon can become, because they can then open up more warehouses, bulk stock more varieties of items and mostly do the distribution aspect of things from right out of the warehouse. If Amazon takes one little bottle of a specialty soap to your house, then they probably didn't make a ton on doing that and maybe even took a small loss...if Amazon is delivering twenty things to your house every time they appear, then they are making an absolute killing.

I agree with the rest of what you said. I fully expect delivery fees to go WAY up, perhaps most so for those customers who will have little alternative short of driving 100 miles when the brick and mortars for everything that is not grocery/pharmacy/Family Dollar around them close.

Quote: Mission146

The busy times are relevant only insofar as they are brick-and-mortar's last bastion of survival.

No, they were always their survival. The Christmas Season is always what really drove lots of retail. Places like Aldi are making this work. Cutting all the late hours and such. Open only for the profitable times of day.

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Here's the thing: The fifty bags of dog food are going to fifty different addresses anyway. It's also more efficient for one warehouse to take 500 pallets of dog food and redistribute those more-or-less directly to 25,000 addresses than for ten different warehouses to take fifty pallets apiece and each sending two pallets to twenty-five different stores where they are purchased by the consumer (takes employees) and then taken to the same address at which they would ultimately arrive anyway.

But the person buying the dog food is also buying people food. And clothes. And motor oil. And whatever else they need at the time. They do their own consolidation in shipping, at a level that can never be done more efficient by anyone. Not for common items anyhow. As you said AMZN works because they have so many unusual things that will not move fast enough for local WMT to carry. But for the common stuff all you are suggesting is the same distribution center that a local store already is.

AMZN, however, is not "making a killing." Their margins are average at best. Prime fees are a huge part of what profitability they have. Their labor costs will eventually kill them. At the rate they are going they will take a union sooner or later. How long sub contractors deliver at low margins is anyone's guess.

Quote: AZDuffman

No, they were always their survival. The Christmas Season is always what really drove lots of retail. Places like Aldi are making this work. Cutting all the late hours and such. Open only for the profitable times of day.

You're not wrong. Of course, Aldi is an unparalleled model of efficiency in almost every aspect, if not every aspect. I think some stores that offer essentials, such as grocery stores and larger pharmacies that have some grocery, do it as much of an advertising mechanism as anything. You get people who might stop in because they need something and nothing else is open, they end up liking the place, then become regular shoppers.

I tend to question the Rite Aids and the Walgreens of the world being open 24/7 when it comes to certain locations that aren't particularly close to any residential, but totally understand why those close to residential would be. Not only does having an employee on the premises give a certain measure of security, but it really doesn't take a ton in sales to more than cover what that employee makes during that shift. Same thing with the 24/7 grocery stores. THe only way it's not true is if you assume the same customers would be coming in and spending a similar amount, at your store specifically, were you not open the extended hours. But, I do know from direct experience that it takes very little in sales to cover that employee for that shift and that they can do other productive things in addition to handling customers.

Same thing with hotels. Night Auditor rents one room and he's paid for that night...and you also have the security component. If he rents two rooms, then looking at the costs to have him there in isolation, his shift becomes profitable. Any other operating costs during that stretch of time would be incurred anyway, and again, there's some productive stuff he could at least theoretically be doing.

When it comes to apparel or specialty retail, that's when you get to the point where it makes no sense to staff certain hours during certain days that are never profitable. The long hours are almost strictly just a mechanism to get people in the door, at that point.

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But the person buying the dog food is also buying people food. And clothes. And motor oil. And whatever else they need at the time. They do their own consolidation in shipping, at a level that can never be done more efficient by anyone. Not for common items anyhow. As you said AMZN works because they have so many unusual things that will not move fast enough for local WMT to carry. But for the common stuff all you are suggesting is the same distribution center that a local store already is.

AMZN, however, is not "making a killing." Their margins are average at best. Prime fees are a huge part of what profitability they have. Their labor costs will eventually kill them. At the rate they are going they will take a union sooner or later. How long sub contractors deliver at low margins is anyone's guess.

Yes, that's my entire point. When it becomes more efficient for both the seller and the buyer to simply have online ordering for all of these things, then the person is going to start doing that. It's already happened as we see major grocery stores starting to get into delivery and curbside pick-up.

The first assumption you make with delivery + curbside v. people going into the physical store is that physical store would generate more revenue. The customer buys things that are not on the list, the customer sees sales items that they hadn't considered, the customer looks at the clearance stuff, impulse buying...etc. So, why would the stores offer these services that generate less in sales? The answer is to compete with the fact that people could theoretically have many of these items just delivered to them via online ordering. The person who physically enters the store still remains the most ideal customer, but you offer these other services because it still beats completely losing a shopper.

It's not the same distribution center because what I am saying is Walmart and Kroger (and others) do not share a distribution center.

What would be more efficient overall:

A. The current state of affairs where you have x distribution centers serving y physical stores for z number of customers in a given area?

OR:

B. One distribution center serving 0 physical stores for z number of customers in a given area?

The answer is the second one, which is essentially what the long game is for Amazon to become. With the purchase of Whole Foods, they're essentially already tiptoeing into the grocery realm because the ONE THING that's going to be difficult for them to do is fresh foods type stuff. Everything else is easy and is what they are already doing anyway. The more general stores and specialty stores are shuttered, the more items that a given locale typically gets from Amazon rather than brick-and-mortar. It's no different than the initial model that made Walmart so successful, with the only real exception being Walmart didn't deliver the stuff to your house initially.

I was suggesting that Amazon, "Makes a killing," on certain deliveries and probably loses a little money on other specific deliveries. Transportation/employee costs will be passed on to the consumer and they'll also eventually stop offering service to certain area for orders of less than a certain amount...or have a ridiculous shipping cost for one or only a few items. Once they have established a better chokehold on the market, the service itself will become much worse/more expensive in a hurry.

Quote: Mission146

I tend to question the Rite Aids and the Walgreens of the world being open 24/7 when it comes to certain locations that aren't particularly close to any residential, but totally understand why those close to residential would be. Not only does having an employee on the premises give a certain measure of security, but it really doesn't take a ton in sales to more than cover what that employee makes during that shift. Same thing with the 24/7 grocery stores. THe only way it's not true is if you assume the same customers would be coming in and spending a similar amount, at your store specifically, were you not open the extended hours. But, I do know from direct experience that it takes very little in sales to cover that employee for that shift and that they can do other productive things in addition to handling customers.

I worked at Giant Eagle nights decades ago. They have since dialed back nights in many locations. The cashier did other things most of the time. Theft was always a problem where I was at. Some places do well because you would be amazed how many people get off swing shift or are bus drivers or couriers or all kinds of other things that drop in. But like fast-food breakfast, it really only works for the market leaders.

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Same thing with hotels. Night Auditor rents one room and he's paid for that night...and you also have the security component. If he rents two rooms, then looking at the costs to have him there in isolation, his shift becomes profitable. Any other operating costs during that stretch of time would be incurred anyway, and again, there's some productive stuff he could at least theoretically be doing.

I lasted 6 weeks as night auditor, a story to itself. I was not there for walk-in business. I was there for desk coverage and to do the night audit. You could not split that job off and just "close" for the night.

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When it comes to apparel or specialty retail, that's when you get to the point where it makes no sense to staff certain hours during certain days that are never profitable. The long hours are almost strictly just a mechanism to get people in the door, at that point.

It is again one of those mixed things. You have some prep work to do. Stocking the place, getting it in order for the rush. Train new employees in the downtime. Retail is not the easiest business out there. You never know when someone will come in during those slow hours.

Quote: AZDuffman

I worked at Giant Eagle nights decades ago. They have since dialed back nights in many locations. The cashier did other things most of the time. Theft was always a problem where I was at. Some places do well because you would be amazed how many people get off swing shift or are bus drivers or couriers or all kinds of other things that drop in. But like fast-food breakfast, it really only works for the market leaders.

I worked at a similar grocery store, but we weren't 24/7. We ran until 1:00a.m. with the last couple hours being mostly dead, reopened at 5:00a.m. I never understood closing because the stock guys were in there from 2:00a.m. onwards, so you really are just adding one dead hour to go complete 24/7 because the other three hours the cashier could have helped the stock guys.

Anyway, that store did well. But, assuming other operating costs during those hours are not variable (and they mostly aren't...maybe you can turn a few lights off without the cashier there that you couldn't otherwise) you needed to average something like $80/hour in total sales and the two guys you had working there would be completely covered. As I'm sure you experienced, a select few people LOVE shopping in a virtually empty store, so we'd probably see, on average, two, 'Big orders,' ($100+) per night (11:00-1:00) when it was only the cashier and myself. I was the PM grocery supervisor, at the times I'm referring to.

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I lasted 6 weeks as night auditor, a story to itself. I was not there for walk-in business. I was there for desk coverage and to do the night audit. You could not split that job off and just "close" for the night.

Maybe not then, but you could now. The computer systems at the major hotel chains do it all in a matter of seconds. There's also the matter of remote access existing for the HoS nowadays, so the, "Night Auditor," wouldn't even have to initiate the audit. In fact, our HoS would automatically do it at 5:00a.m. if it hadn't yet been initiated...and we usually just let it. Any rooms rented until 5:00a.m. were considered that operating night, so they would get a late check out (usually 2:00p.m.) and we'd mark the housekeeper's list for that room on that floor, "Do last."

In fact, certain extended stay hotels do close overnight. Our Night Auditor was mostly tasked with watching for unregistered people coming in from outside, shoveling snow in the Winter, and taking care of any laundry that hadn't been finished throughout the day...though it usually all had. Practically speaking, he mostly just took naps until it was time to put out breakfast, which was his job top maintain until A Shift arrived.

I think even Check-Inn for Windows (a HoS that some independent hotels use) can even be done remotely now.

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It is again one of those mixed things. You have some prep work to do. Stocking the place, getting it in order for the rush. Train new employees in the downtime. Retail is not the easiest business out there. You never know when someone will come in during those slow hours.

That's very true. I actually sold furniture for a few months at a major retail chain store and the reset went pretty quickly because they would have all departments do it after close. It all depends on how you want to do it, but exception to optical, (which I think was actually a different company anyway who just leased the physical space) they wanted all departments open and staffed at all times.

Why wouldn't you put two departments that tend to be dead during the slower hours next to each other and cross-train 1-2 people from each to be able to handle either/both during the dead hours? I have no idea. That would have made sense to me. As it was, the last two furniture salespeople were there together from 8:00p.m.-10:00p.m. every night...and I don't believe either of us ever sold a damn thing during those hours Sunday-Thursday....and barely sold anything on weekends during those times. One person could have also handled the side work...unless they REALLY needed us there playing chess from 9:00-10:00.

Quote: Mission146

I worked at a similar grocery store, but we weren't 24/7. We ran until 1:00a.m. with the last couple hours being mostly dead, reopened at 5:00a.m. I never understood closing because the stock guys were in there from 2:00a.m. onwards, so you really are just adding one dead hour to go complete 24/7 because the other three hours the cashier could have helped the stock guys.

Why? S-H-R-I-N-K. The more urban the store the more they get shoplifted to death at these hours.

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Anyway, that store did well. But, assuming other operating costs during those hours are not variable (and they mostly aren't...maybe you can turn a few lights off without the cashier there that you couldn't otherwise) you needed to average something like $80/hour in total sales and the two guys you had working there would be completely covered. As I'm sure you experienced, a select few people LOVE shopping in a virtually empty store, so we'd probably see, on average, two, 'Big orders,' ($100+) per night (11:00-1:00) when it was only the cashier and myself. I was the PM grocery supervisor, at the times I'm referring to.

The thing was this. You had the post-swing shift. Then the post-bars shift. Then a mix. After 5AM or so it rolled over and you had the pre-work people. Some people bought bulk, say 250lbs of flour for some kind of restaurant they had. The other thing was it was seasonal. Busier in day meant busier at night. I had to "close out" the system every night, which meant for that 20-30 minutes the computer did its thing I had to ring things on paper then on the register. Looking back I could have made a killing there. Anyhow, in slow times I did this 2:30 or so. Was at my discretion. Busy times I had to wait until 3:30 and sometimes was still getting slammed at the register.

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Maybe not then, but you could now. The computer systems at the major hotel chains do it all in a matter of seconds. There's also the matter of remote access existing for the HoS nowadays, so the, "Night Auditor," wouldn't even have to initiate the audit. In fact, our HoS would automatically do it at 5:00a.m. if it hadn't yet been initiated...and we usually just let it. Any rooms rented until 5:00a.m. were considered that operating night, so they would get a late check out (usually 2:00p.m.) and we'd mark the housekeeper's list for that floor, "Do last."

It was a security issue. Place was a block from the convention center. An open door would make it a homeless camp.

Quote: AZDuffman

Why? S-H-R-I-N-K. The more urban the store the more they get shoplifted to death at these hours.

Yeah, but ours wasn't particularly urban. The other major grocery store in that town was open 24/7. That's what I mean, SHRINK wasn't much of a concern and you'd only be adding an hour of time that people wouldn't otherwise be there. The stock guys spend more time on the floor than off because I've already loaded what you may have called trolleys but we called (and this might be unique to that store) U-Boats. The whole time I worked there (several different positions within the store totaling four years in two stints) I think I only ever caught two shoplifters.

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The thing was this. You had the post-swing shift. Then the post-bars shift. Then a mix. After 5AM or so it rolled over and you had the pre-work people. Some people bought bulk, say 250lbs of flour for some kind of restaurant they had. The other thing was it was seasonal. Busier in day meant busier at night. I had to "close out" the system every night, which meant for that 20-30 minutes the computer did its thing I had to ring things on paper then on the register. Looking back I could have made a killing there. Anyhow, in slow times I did this 2:30 or so. Was at my discretion. Busy times I had to wait until 3:30 and sometimes was still getting slammed at the register.

We didn't have that sort of flow. During our slower hours, we were definitely low traffic, but half of all traffic would be a big order. My thinking on it is that there might be a few other people like that out there who you're losing to the 24/7 store by NOT being 24/7 when it would only increase your staff levels for one total hour.

Instead, you had a completely empty store for one hour (which would be more concerning to me as a security issue) and then three hours where you have employees on premises but do not have customers.

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It was a security issue. Place was a block from the convention center. An open door would make it a homeless camp.

No doubt about it. Just existing as a hotel is a security issue unto itself. The extended stay type places I was talking about are usually staffed during these times, just not open. At a minimum, they tend to at least have a live-in owner or manager. Leaving a hotel completely unattended anywhere would be a totally insane idea, in my opinion.

Quote: Mission146

We didn't have that sort of flow. During our slower hours, we were definitely low traffic, but half of all traffic would be a big order. My thinking on it is that there might be a few other people like that out there who you're losing to the 24/7 store by NOT being 24/7 when it would only increase your staff levels for one total hour.

We were never empty. Like Thanksgiving, Christmas, and a few hours on NYE when night shift was more like 4-10 or something, I forget exactly. Maybe a few hours on the summer holidays until night shift came in. Dairy was delivered around 4, first bread delivery about 5. The bakers came in at 5, meat guys by 6. The donut guy worked overnight. I might be off on a few things, talking 1988-89! On a normal shift I "cashiered" perhaps half the time, rest was stock ordering, cigarette ordering (which I had to a science) and other side things this or that they had me do.

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No doubt about it. Just existing as a hotel is a security issue unto itself. The extended stay type places I was talking about are usually staffed during these times, just not open. At a minimum, they tend to at least have a live-in owner or manager. Leaving a hotel completely unattended anywhere would be a totally insane idea, in my opinion.

Such a night-audit gig could be nice for the right person. Get a few hours to study for your COMP-TIA test.