Climate Change -- conspiracy theory or is it time we all drive a Prius?

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April 5th, 2020 at 3:14:16 PM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 145
Posts: 10484
Quote: odiousgambit
if we don't get smarter what happens when we get a real pandemic?

yeah, I'm being provocative, but I swear it's remarkable how clobbered we are getting buy the lamest thing of it's nature that could have possible come around. <1% death rate? that's lame


We already have 3 times the number of 911 dead. How shell shocked were you from that?
Trump says his supporters are dumber than a sack of rocks
April 5th, 2020 at 3:16:29 PM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 145
Posts: 10484
Perhaps if we took the dead, put them into a car, and launched them into an intersection at each other, it would seem more ordinary.
Trump says his supporters are dumber than a sack of rocks
April 5th, 2020 at 3:22:28 PM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 145
Posts: 10484
Here's another one.

We build a platform across a canyon. It has a hundred marked trap doors. You pick any path you want always able to avoid some doors. You have to stand on each trap door you pick. One door will send you to your death if you pick wrong. How much money would it take for you to take the risk?

edit, actually this last one isn't exactly similar.
Trump says his supporters are dumber than a sack of rocks
April 5th, 2020 at 4:27:41 PM permalink
kenarman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 11
Posts: 2250
Quote: odiousgambit
if we don't get smarter what happens when we get a real pandemic?

yeah, I'm being provocative, but I swear it's remarkable how clobbered we are getting buy the lamest thing of it's nature that could have possible come around. <1% death rate? that's lame


What math did you do to get your less than 1% death rate. Seems like something you pulled out of your hat. Currently we have 1.27 million confirmed/recovered cases in the world and 69K deaths for a rate of over 5%. I expect this is high since we still don't have a handle on how many people have had mild symptoms and never been diagnosed, hopefully that is a very large number. We also don't yet know what percentage of people will never get the virus through natural immunity or no exposure, many of the "experts" put that number in the range of 50%.

The really scary number right now which hopefully is simply the result of the world not getting a handle on things fast enough is the current death rate of those people that were positively diagnosed and are now either considered virus free or died. This number world wide is 330K the 69K deaths are 21% of this number.
"but if you make yourselves sheep, the wolves will eat you." Benjamin Franklin
April 5th, 2020 at 5:22:42 PM permalink
DRich
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 32
Posts: 2132
Quote: kenarman
What math did you do to get your less than 1% death rate. Seems like something you pulled out of your hat. Currently we have 1.27 million confirmed/recovered cases in the world and 69K deaths for a rate of over 5%.


Because he is looking at it the proper way. What percentage of the population will die from this virus? When we get to 3.5 million deaths in the U.S. that will be about 1%. As I have said before, until 1% of the population die I really can't even take this seriously. When we get to 10 million dead in the u.s. I will start believing this is more serious than I thought.
April 5th, 2020 at 6:50:37 PM permalink
kenarman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 11
Posts: 2250
Quote: DRich
Because he is looking at it the proper way. What percentage of the population will die from this virus? When we get to 3.5 million deaths in the U.S. that will be about 1%. As I have said before, until 1% of the population die I really can't even take this seriously. When we get to 10 million dead in the u.s. I will start believing this is more serious than I thought.


I posted several weeks ago that I thought a the final total of deaths would be in the 1% range. Very few people want to even think about a number that high because the MSM keep giving out raw numbers without context. Percentages are what we should be reporting. But to get back to my original post should we just pull a number out of our hat the and say I believe this without any context or back-up. My 1% number as I originally stated is based on 2% mortality and 50% of the population eventually getting Covid.
"but if you make yourselves sheep, the wolves will eat you." Benjamin Franklin
April 6th, 2020 at 9:24:06 AM permalink
odiousgambit
Member since: Oct 28, 2012
Threads: 114
Posts: 2935
Quote: kenarman
What math did you do to get your less than 1% death rate. Seems like something you pulled out of your hat. Currently we have 1.27 million confirmed/recovered cases in the world and 69K deaths for a rate of over 5%. I expect this is high since we still don't have a handle on how many people have had mild symptoms and never been diagnosed, hopefully that is a very large number. We also don't yet know what percentage of people will never get the virus through natural immunity or no exposure, many of the "experts" put that number in the range of 50%.

The really scary number right now which hopefully is simply the result of the world not getting a handle on things fast enough is the current death rate of those people that were positively diagnosed and are now either considered virus free or died. This number world wide is 330K the 69K deaths are 21% of this number.
There are articles out there by more than one person pointing out how this is confusing. The <1% that I am talking about *includes* people who don't have symptoms or don't have them bad enough to be hospitalized, something you point out yourself. I still am thinking that <1% is what the final analysis will say; I may be proved wrong. These mild case people are not counted now except maybe in South Korea.

My point is more to what happens if we get something worse rather than downplaying the current situation.
The light at the end of the tunnel can be a freight train coming the other way!..Fleastiff
April 6th, 2020 at 10:39:23 AM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 145
Posts: 10484
Quote: odiousgambit

My point is more to what happens if we get something worse rather than downplaying the current situation.


Turn Disney resorts into Renaissance theme parks?
Trump says his supporters are dumber than a sack of rocks
May 8th, 2020 at 6:59:54 PM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 145
Posts: 10484
Quote:
Humans’ ability to efficiently shed heat has enabled us to range over every continent, but a wet-bulb temperature (TW) of 35°C marks our upper physiological limit, and much lower values have serious health and productivity impacts. Climate models project the first 35°C TW occurrences by the mid-21st century.

However, a comprehensive evaluation of weather station data shows that some coastal subtropical locations have already reported a TW of 35°C and that extreme humid heat overall has more than doubled in frequency since 1979. Recent exceedances of 35°C in global maximum sea surface temperature provide further support for the validity of these dangerously high TW values.

We find the most extreme humid heat is highly localized in both space and time and is correspondingly substantially underestimated in reanalysis products. Our findings thus underscore the serious challenge posed by humid heat that is more intense than previously reported and increasingly severe.


https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/19/eaaw1838
Trump says his supporters are dumber than a sack of rocks
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