Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan trip is a dangerous, selfish legacy play

"The United States maintained Taiwan's recognition for 30 years after the Chinese civil war but switched in 1979. Despite this, the U.S. has maintained a positive relationship with Taiwan, including offering the island military assistance, a move that has caused tension between the U.S. and China. In 2019, Kiribati and the Solomon Islands both switched their recognition from Taiwan to China within a week. Most recently, Nicaragua rescinded its recognition of Taiwan in December 2021. As a result, only Vatican City and 13 of the 193 UN countries recognize Taiwan as of 2022."

Quote: kenarman

"The United States maintained Taiwan's recognition for 30 years after the Chinese civil war but switched in 1979. Despite this, the U.S. has maintained a positive relationship with Taiwan, including offering the island military assistance, a move that has caused tension between the U.S. and China. In 2019, Kiribati and the Solomon Islands both switched their recognition from Taiwan to China within a week. Most recently, Nicaragua rescinded its recognition of Taiwan in December 2021. As a result, only Vatican City and 13 of the 193 UN countries recognize Taiwan as of 2022."

What are you so anti Taiwan?
Are you cheering for people to lose their freedoms
Sure seems like it

Quote: terapined

Quote: kenarman

Quote: terapined

Quote: kenarman

Quote: terapined

Quote: Pacomartin

Not my words, but SF Gate editor

https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/nancy-pelosi-selfish-taiwan-trip-17343582.php

Quote: China's Foreign Ministry

"[Pelosi's trip] has a severe impact on the political foundation of China-U.S. relations, and seriously infringes upon China's sovereignty and territorial integrity. It gravely undermines peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, and sends a seriously wrong signal to the separatist forces for 'Taiwan independence”.

“Since Speaker Pelosi is the incumbent leader of the U.S. Congress, her visit to and activities in Taiwan, in whatever form and for whatever reason, is a major political provocation to upgrade U.S. official exchanges with Taiwan."

The signal the US has been sending for generations is that the US supports Taiwan independence and freedom
This ain't some rinky dink country
It's our 9th largest trading partner on the planet
They are an economic powerhouse in their own right
We've totally armed the island to the teeth with the best our defense contractors can produce
That's what's meaningful, amount of trade and what they buy from our defense industry
Overall the Pelosi visit is just meaningless politics
China was dumb to speak up. This just underscores Taiwan's independence and how little influence China has on US politics

I would love to see them remain independent but don't see it happening. The vast majority of countries in the world have agreed that they are a territory of China. China is getting stronger and the Democrats are intent on destroying the US economically and militarily so I don't see the US having the will or the power to protect them.



Yet the US does not recognize Taiwan as a separate country. Very few countries in the world recognize Taiwan as a country.

????????
The Taiwan passport is pretty powerful and recognized worldwide
Taiwan is about business and countries recognize Taiwan and trust Taiwan a lot more.
Taiwan's passport is ranked as the 34th most powerful in the world. Taiwan citizens can enter about 140 countries without a visa
China on the other hand ranked about 69th most powerful in the world
Only about 80 countries allow entry without a visa

"The United States maintained Taiwan's recognition for 30 years after the Chinese civil war but switched in 1979. Despite this, the U.S. has maintained a positive relationship with Taiwan, including offering the island military assistance, a move that has caused tension between the U.S. and China. In 2019, Kiribati and the Solomon Islands both switched their recognition from Taiwan to China within a week. Most recently, Nicaragua rescinded its recognition of Taiwan in December 2021. As a result, only Vatican City and 13 of the 193 UN countries recognize Taiwan as of 2022."

What are you so anti Taiwan?
Are you cheering for people to lose their freedoms
Sure seems like it

Quote: terapined

What are you so anti Taiwan?
Are you cheering for people to lose their freedoms
Sure seems like it

I took his comment as simply a series of facts. They didn't seem either pro or anti Taiwan.

As of April 2022, 13 countries and Vatican City/Holy See have recognized Taiwan as a sovereign country:
Country Year Relations

1. Holy See (Vatican City) 1942-present
2. Guatemala 1933-present
3. Haiti 1956-present
4. Paraguay 1957-present
5. Eswatini formerly named Swaziland 1968-present
6. Belize 1989-present
7. Honduras 1985-present
8. Marshall Islands 1998-present
9. Nauru 1980-2002, 2005-present
10. Palau 1999-present
11. Saint Kitts and Nevis 1983-present
12. Saint Lucia 1984-1997, 2007-present
13. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 1981-present
14. Tuvalu 1979-present

In 1971, the UN expelled the Republic Of China (ROC) and transferred China's seat to the People's Republic of China (PRC). In addition to the recognition of the ROC by a majority of countries before UN Resolution 2758, the ROC lost its membership in all intergovernmental organisations related to the UN. As the UN and related organizations like the International Court of Justice are the most common venues for effective execution of international law and serve as the international community for sovereign states, a majority of the countries aligned with the West in the Cold War terminated diplomatic relations with the ROC and opened diplomatic relations with the PRC.

Quote: Pacomartin

I took his comment as simply a series of facts. They didn't seem either pro or anti Taiwan.
.

Taiwan will eventually go back to China it's inevitable. Might as well be sooner rather than later. China always gets what it wants because it has an infinite amount of patience.

Quote: Evenbob

Taiwan will eventually go back to China it's inevitable. Might as well be sooner rather than later. China always gets what it wants because it has an infinite amount of patience.

The PRC government was declared on October 1, 1949, so we are approaching the 73rd anniversary. I figured the takeover of Taiwan was always going to be part pulbic relations campaign, part politicking, part siege, and part outright military confrontation . I think you are correct and Taiwan should begin negotiations like Hong Kong and avoid the casualties. China is uninterested in taxing a destroyed economy.

Quote: Pacomartin

The PRC government was declared on October 1, 1949, so we are approaching the 73rd anniversary. I figured the takeover of Taiwan was always going to be part pulbic relations campaign, part politicking, part siege, and part outright military confrontation . I think you are correct and Taiwan should begin negotiations like Hong Kong and avoid the casualties. China is uninterested in taxing a destroyed economy.

I just don't see Taiwan negotiating their freedom away
If anything, the Hong Kong situation has hardened Taiwan. The Tawainese people are quite shocked at the loss of freedom in Hong Kong.

Quote: terapined

I just don't see Taiwan negotiating their freedom away
If anything, the Hong Kong situation has hardened Taiwan. The Tawainese people are quite shocked at the loss of freedom in Hong Kong.

Ed, would you be in favor of the USA going into a full war with China over Taiwan?

Obviously I would for reasons different than most. To me war is the ultimate game of strategy and I would like to see how those strategies would play out.

Quote: DRich

Ed, would you be in favor of the USA going into a full war with China over Taiwan?

Obviously I would for reasons different than most. To me war is the ultimate game of strategy and I would like to see how those strategies would play out.

I just don't think Taiwan will negotiate their freedom away and China won't invade due to what happened in Ukraine.
Taiwan has a much more advanced defense capabilities then Uktaine. No comparison. Its one thing to roll over a border, invading an island is not easy. In the end a thriving independent Taiwan economy is more valuable to China. Both have invested deeply in each other's economy.
China has massive problems of its own. Banking failures have rocked the country. People are protesting because they have lost their life savings. Open protests are happening in China right now.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-02/china-bank-scams-mortgage-boycott-show-financial-strains
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/27/china-village-banks-economic-growth-dangerous-contagion/

Quote: terapined

I just don't think Taiwan will negotiate their freedom away and China won't invade due to what happened in Ukraine.
Taiwan has a much more advanced defense capabilities then Uktaine. No comparison. Its one thing to roll over a border, invading an island is not easy. In the end a thriving independent Taiwan economy is more valuable to China. Both have invested deeply in each other's economy.

The war in Ukraine is a perfect example of how to take over Taiwan. Destroy the towns with rockets until nothing is left and the population is dead or leaves. The rockets and shells don't care whether they go over land or water. Keep repeating until you have taken over the island. Taiwan can't win a long term war with a determined China simply too much difference in the size of the military. Can Taiwan inflict serious damage on Chinese invaders? Sure but not enough to win a war.

How long can Ukraine keep fighting as they are clearly losing the war? They only win if Russia quits which is unlikely with Putin in power. Do you see the Chinese leaders stopping once they start? Taiwan has only 1/2 the population of Ukraine and the Ukraine military can't continue to lose 600 soldiers a day.

The only scenario that I see where Taiwan is not taken over is if the US fully commits to war with China to protect Taiwan. Even that is debatable since a US win against China on their home turf is far from assured.

You early said something about me disliking Taiwan. That is not the case I just try to be a realist. To lose all the chip technology and manufacturing capability would be a serious blow to the west.