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Presidential Election 2020 Biden vs. Trump
Poll
 | 6 votes (33.33%) | ||
| | 9 votes (50%) | ||
| No votes (0%) | |||
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| | 3 votes (16.66%) |
18 members have voted
| July 12th, 2020 at 4:37:50 AM permalink | |
| ams288 Member since: Apr 21, 2016 Threads: 29 Posts: 12525 |
Gore did win the popular vote though. The GOP has won the popular vote once in the last 7 presidential elections. Not exactly a great track record. But a perfect illustration as to why the party needs the EC to survive. “A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman |
| July 12th, 2020 at 5:50:13 AM permalink | |
| RonC Member since: Nov 7, 2012 Threads: 8 Posts: 2505 |
It all sounds so special, this Democrat forever thing. I have heard both parties pronounced dead in the past 20 years or so. The problem becomes what do you do when you are the only party that can do anything. People have expectations that their lives won't get too screwed up by government actions. Most people, when you talk to them, are moderate overall. Some of the people they count in their base, and the ones they want to put in their base, are more conservative than they think. Once the people feel screwed, they change things. To keep a majority, you have to actually satisfy a majority more than you piss them off. That isn't as easy as it sounds... |
| July 12th, 2020 at 11:19:12 AM permalink | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Wizard Administrator Member since: Oct 23, 2012 Threads: 239 Posts: 6095 | I think it would be interesting to track the odds on the 2020 election. So far I have about $11,000 on Trump and gradually betting more. Here are some odds I've received by date. The right column shows the assumed probability of winning if my bet were exactly fair. Let the record show I think around +140 is a great value, but I've been wrong before. My record is I've made money on every election since I started betting them in 1996, except the last one. In all fairness, I think I didn't bet either way in 2000.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| July 12th, 2020 at 11:25:42 AM permalink | |
| Evenbob Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 146 Posts: 25011 |
Seriously, why. They're meaningless. Betfair paid off all the Hillary wagers 2 weeks before the election because all the polls said she would win in a landslide. Then after the election they paid off all the Trump wagers. The whole process is a bad joke. If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose. |
| July 12th, 2020 at 4:31:47 PM permalink | |
| Wizard Administrator Member since: Oct 23, 2012 Threads: 239 Posts: 6095 |
If both sides are paid again -- all the more reason why. Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber |
| July 12th, 2020 at 7:15:51 PM permalink | |
| Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
I assume that means you will lose $11,000 if Trump loses. How much will you win if Trump wins? |
| July 12th, 2020 at 10:12:41 PM permalink | |
| Wizard Administrator Member since: Oct 23, 2012 Threads: 239 Posts: 6095 |
I just added up the 22 straight election bets. So far I'm in for $11,899.50. If Trump wins, I will profit $12,410.35. There are also some exotic bets on who will win particular states and the popular vote, but I'm not counting them. Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber |
| July 12th, 2020 at 11:33:47 PM permalink | |
| Evenbob Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 146 Posts: 25011 |
'If' Trump wins? Really? I'm sure you're not too worried. If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose. |
| July 13th, 2020 at 12:47:51 AM permalink | |
| Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 | 2016 vote: Democratic to Republican CA 8,753,788 to 4,483,810 lost by 4,269,978 NY 4,556,124 to 2,819,534 lost by 1,736,590 Trump's biggest win by absolute numbers over Hillary was in TX, and it was less than 1 million votes.
What are the odds on Trump winning the popular vote? They must be incredible. |
| July 13th, 2020 at 4:59:34 AM permalink | |
| ams288 Member since: Apr 21, 2016 Threads: 29 Posts: 12525 | Honest question: Why are some of you so certain Donny will win? Are you just 100% banking on the polls being wrong again? (At this point, they would have to be more than TWICE as wrong as they were in 2016 in order for Donny to overcome Biden's current polling advantage). Not to mention that the polls were spot-on in 2018... “A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman |