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Presidential Election 2020 Biden vs. Trump
Poll
 | 6 votes (33.33%) | ||
| | 9 votes (50%) | ||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| | 3 votes (16.66%) |
18 members have voted
| July 13th, 2020 at 5:15:18 AM permalink | |
| SOOPOO Member since: Feb 19, 2014 Threads: 22 Posts: 4176 |
No one can be certain that either candidate will win. Anyone who claims to be is either foolish or a liar. I do believe, like 2016, there must be some who will vote for Trump that will not admit it to a pollster. But I agree that would not be enough to overcome the massive deficit Trump finds himself in. One embarrassing debate performance by Biden could change a lot. |
| July 13th, 2020 at 5:26:08 AM permalink | |
| ams288 Member since: Apr 21, 2016 Threads: 29 Posts: 12532 |
We are on the same page then. If the election were today, Biden would win easily. But a lot can change in just under four months... never count Donny completely out. “A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman |
| July 13th, 2020 at 6:13:12 AM permalink | |
| Wizard Administrator Member since: Oct 23, 2012 Threads: 239 Posts: 6095 |
Of course I'm worried. I would be betting MUCH more if I thought it was a sure thing. Has not Obama/Romney humbled you and your election predictions?
Popular vote winner: Biden -550 Trump +425 Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber |
| July 13th, 2020 at 8:22:18 AM permalink | |
| Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
Trump should fire Pence and select a black woman for VP. He should also promise to step down at age 78 years + 60 days (the age Biden would be on inauguration day if he was elected). That would give the Republican black woman 200 days as POTUS which would cover his lame duck period and a few extra weeks to run for re-election. Too gimmicky? Does that mean anything today?
Do you have a clear point where bettings odds are just not worth tying up your money? Do you know the highest odds you've ever bet? I would think it would be for a Disney film to win Best Animated Feature. |
| July 13th, 2020 at 11:37:11 AM permalink | |
| Wizard Administrator Member since: Oct 23, 2012 Threads: 239 Posts: 6095 |
It's a matter of both the odds and how long I have to wait for the bet to resolve. This does come into play with the Super Bowl. For example, last time there was a bet on whether the score would ever be 16-19 at any point in the game. This is discussed at WoV, but I think I put the probability around 2% and you had to lay about 15 to 1 on the no. For me, it wasn't worth tying up my money over, but I did put some down, like $1500 to win $100. If there were a bet on will Trump win Idaho, and I had to lay 20 to 1 on the "yes," I wouldn't fuss with it. At 10 to 1, I would. This would be partially over the fuss of turning money in my bank account to cash to bitcoin and then the opposite way back. The most odds I've ever laid is around 15 to 1, for the same reason. Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber |
| July 14th, 2020 at 6:24:02 AM permalink | |
| Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 | I should think Biden at -550 to win the popular vote is a reasonable bet. Trump lost by nearly 8 million votes in these four states in 2016. I doubt anything that Trump did in his time in office will endear him to these Democratic strongholds, and I assume he won't campaign there. -904,303 Mass. -944,714 Ill. -1,736,590 N.Y. -4,269,978 Calif. Trump Beat Hillary by this many votes in 2016 807,179 Texas 652,230 Tenn. 588,708 Ala. 574,117 Ky. 528,761 Okla. 524,160 Ind. 523,443 Mo. 446,841 Ohio 398,484 La. 304,378 Ark. 300,577 W.Va. 300,016 S.C. 244,013 Kan. 219,290 Idaho 215,583 Miss. 211,467 Nebr. † 211,141 Ga. 204,555 Utah 173,315 N.C. 147,314 Iowa 123,036 N.D. 118,446 Wyo. 112,911 Fla. 110,263 S.D. 101,531 Mont. 91,234 Ariz. 46,933 Alaska 44,292 Pa. <--------------- Obvious battleground state 22,748 Wis. 10,704 Mich. <--------------- Obvious battleground state -2,736 N.H. -22,142 Maine † -27,202 Nev. -44,765 Minn. -50,476 Del. -65,567 N.M. -71,982 R.I. -83,204 Vt. -136,386 Colo. -138,044 Hawaii -212,030 Va. -219,703 Ore. -224,357 Conn. -270,107 D.C. -520,971 Wash. -546,345 N.J. -734,759 Md. -904,303 Mass. -944,714 Ill. -1,736,590 N.Y. -4,269,978 Calif. |
| July 14th, 2020 at 6:38:54 AM permalink | |
| ams288 Member since: Apr 21, 2016 Threads: 29 Posts: 12532 |
Polls have Biden neck and neck with Donny in these states (ahead in FL, AZ, and NC). Even if Biden doesn't win them, he's going to cut into the margin. The popular vote discrepancy will be much bigger than 2016. “A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman |
| July 14th, 2020 at 12:11:32 PM permalink | |
| RonC Member since: Nov 7, 2012 Threads: 8 Posts: 2510 |
...and, other than for betting purposes and chatter by the losers, it will matter exactly the same as it did in 2016. The way we elect Presidents is with the Electoral College. Hillary was saying that Trump must accept the election results in 2020...does she mean just like she did? The losing side uses it to say they should have won even though the knew going in how it all worked. Besides, Biden could still win.... |
| July 14th, 2020 at 12:14:03 PM permalink | |
| Evenbob Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 146 Posts: 25011 |
Win what, a game of bingo in the rest home? Probably not.. If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose. |
| July 14th, 2020 at 12:18:35 PM permalink | |
| ams288 Member since: Apr 21, 2016 Threads: 29 Posts: 12532 |
What in god’s name is the point of this post? Are you under the impression that I said the popular vote is going to elect the president this year? Paco/Wiz were talking about the betting odds of who wins the popular vote. It’s clear that Biden will EASILY win the popular vote. By a bigger margin than Hillary won it in 2016. I don’t even think there are any Trumpsters who would argue this (well, maybe Evenbob. He thinks Donny will win NY!!!!). “A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman |