Presidential Election 2020 Biden vs. Trump

Poll
6 votes (33.33%)
9 votes (50%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
3 votes (16.66%)

18 members have voted

June 28th, 2020 at 5:51:00 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Quote: Aussie
This is either a deliberate attempt at bringing some comedy to the forum or a total inability to self-reflect. Anyone reading your posts for any length of time at all would have had more than a wry grin at this one.


No, it is showing reality. A Democrat has a scandal the wagons get circled. The GOP usually throws him overboard, Trump era starting to show some exception.

Look at Bill Clinton. His outright sexual harassment got and still gets defended to the bitter end. They had a KKK leader in their ranks in the Senate until his death. Ted Kennedy left a woman to die while he called his lawyers not the cops to save her and he was a hero. Outright racist comments on their own side are just fine.

Quote:
In other news Trump is now out to +192. Can’t see how it won’t be closer come November. I will back him probably when he gets to +200 or so with a view to backing Biden when it tightens.


Take as much of that as you can. Same numbers in 2016! Basement Boy has yet to go public. If he follows the Hillary prevent defense plan he is dead.
The President is a fink.
June 28th, 2020 at 9:29:02 AM permalink
Shrek
Member since: Aug 13, 2019
Threads: 6
Posts: 1635
Quote: SOOPOO
Straight honest talk? You've been smoking too much this morning....
Quote: kenarman
Maybe it is because the younger generation can only view the world through the lense of a cell phone.
June 28th, 2020 at 9:34:38 AM permalink
Shrek
Member since: Aug 13, 2019
Threads: 6
Posts: 1635
Quote: AZDuffman
Look at Bill Clinton. His outright sexual harassment got and still gets defended to the bitter end. They had a KKK leader in their ranks in the Senate until his death. Ted Kennedy left a woman to die while he called his lawyers not the cops to save her and he was a hero. Outright racist comments on their own side are just fine.
+1,000

June 28th, 2020 at 11:02:22 AM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 29
Posts: 12422
This is from Donny’s “walk of shame” after the Tulsa rally debacle last week.

Notice his orange face makeup wearing off on the collar of his shirt! No wonder he is afraid to wear a mask in public!!! 😂😂😂

“A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman
June 28th, 2020 at 7:56:27 PM permalink
Aussie
Member since: May 10, 2016
Threads: 2
Posts: 458
Quote: AZDuffman
No, it is showing reality. A Democrat has a scandal the wagons get circled. The GOP usually throws him overboard, Trump era starting to show some exception.

Look at Bill Clinton. His outright sexual harassment got and still gets defended to the bitter end. They had a KKK leader in their ranks in the Senate until his death. Ted Kennedy left a woman to die while he called his lawyers not the cops to save her and he was a hero. Outright racist comments on their own side are just fine.




Thanks for making my point. Guess we’ll put it in the “no self awareness” column then.
June 28th, 2020 at 8:20:17 PM permalink
Aussie
Member since: May 10, 2016
Threads: 2
Posts: 458
Quote: AZDuffman
Take as much of that as you can. Same numbers in 2016! Basement Boy has yet to go public. If he follows the Hillary prevent defense plan he is dead.



Already out to +200. Touched +205 earlier. Much faster than I expected. May wait a bit longer for better odds as it looks like going that way.






In what way are the numbers the same as 2016 though? Not what I’m reading but happy to be shown otherwise. Reading that Hillary was +6ish at this point nationwide. Biden up by more. Do agree it has to get much closer when he is forced out into the open again and the gaffes start flying.




EDIT: BTW is betting allowed to be discussed here these days? I would have posted this on WoV but find it pointless without also being allowed to discuss the pros and cons of each candidate, polling, and anything else which would be deemed political. They really go hand in hand.
June 29th, 2020 at 2:45:58 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Quote: Aussie

In what way are the numbers the same as 2016 though? Not what I’m reading but happy to be shown otherwise. Reading that Hillary was +6ish at this point nationwide. Biden up by more. Do agree it has to get much closer when he is forced out into the open again and the gaffes start flying.


Numbers are the same in that the polls in 2016 were very similar to now. A huge problem with taking a betting line number is the bettors are mostly from outside the USA with a bias towards the left. On the ground here you do not see any real support for Biden. Just that he is "not Trump." Also the average American does not like riots and statues being torn down like Biden will at the least refuse to condemn.

In 1988 Bush was down 20 at this point, which evaporated when people saw what the Democrat was really in favor of. Look for Biden to take a similar soft on criminals stance.
The President is a fink.
June 29th, 2020 at 2:02:04 PM permalink
Aussie
Member since: May 10, 2016
Threads: 2
Posts: 458
Quote: AZDuffman
Numbers are the same in that the polls in 2016 were very similar to now. A huge problem with taking a betting line number is the bettors are mostly from outside the USA with a bias towards the left. On the ground here you do not see any real support for Biden. Just that he is "not Trump." Also the average American does not like riots and statues being torn down like Biden will at the least refuse to condemn.

In 1988 Bush was down 20 at this point, which evaporated when people saw what the Democrat was really in favor of. Look for Biden to take a similar soft on criminals stance.



No, polls were not similar to now in 2016. There was several points difference at this point according to every article I have read in the last few days. Happy to post them if that helps. Would love you to do the same.

What possible evidence do you have that most bettors from outside the US have a bias to the left? This is pure guesswork and not very good guesswork at that. Suggest you research the historical accuracy of Betfair markets, especially as events get closer and liquidity increases. You’ll find quite the opposite of your guess as to market accuracy.
June 29th, 2020 at 2:12:42 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Quote: Aussie


What possible evidence do you have that most bettors from outside the US have a bias to the left? This is pure guesswork and not very good guesswork at that. Suggest you research the historical accuracy of Betfair markets, especially as events get closer and liquidity increases. You’ll find quite the opposite of your guess as to market accuracy.


Most of the EU is left of the USA, that alone shows a leftward bias.

Biden has no energy, no base of support. His total selling proposition is "I'm not Trump." Historically that has not held up in a POTUS election.

When he comes out in favor of riots and looting to appease his base we will see what happens.
The President is a fink.
June 29th, 2020 at 2:25:51 PM permalink
Aussie
Member since: May 10, 2016
Threads: 2
Posts: 458
Quote: AZDuffman
Most of the EU is left of the USA, that alone shows a leftward bias.

Biden has no energy, no base of support. His total selling proposition is "I'm not Trump." Historically that has not held up in a POTUS election.

When he comes out in favor of riots and looting to appease his base we will see what happens.




This is where you show a lack of understanding of how Betfair works. It is a peer-to-peer betting exchange. It’s like you and I agreeing to a bet essentially. For there to be a bet made there needs to be people on BOTH sides agreeing to take it. Ergo your idea of “left bias” cannot be true since there would be no bets taken. So far there has been approx USD50m of bets made there. By the time the election is over there will likely be more than half a billion. The fact that most of Europe is more left than the US is totally irrelevant when you have an efficient market being framed based on best information at the time.


I’m not sure why you keep repeating that Biden’s support will fall when he is forced out of his bunker. Are you trying to convince me of something I already agree with? :S