Andrew Yang seems pretty awesome

Quote: Pacomartin
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It would be great for Mexico, Central America and Caribbean, however, as millions of wealthy people from the USA would move into that country looking for tax relief. Cancun will look like Manhattan. Panama City is already said to be "Manhattanizing".

The Scandinavian countries top individual tax rates actually aren't a lot higher than the US. They raise significantly more in income tax because the rates are relatively flat and the middle class pays significantly more income tax (so much for the rich will pay for it). Business tax marginal rates are actually lower than in in the US, US is 39% the highest Scandinavian country is 27% (whoops the business aren't paying for UBI either). The other main tax is the 25% VAT, so if that were to be instigated in the US everything would immediately go up significantly.

The bottom line is that to raise large sums of money from taxes you need a large tax base so the middle class have to be included in the increased taxes. The VAT would catch the poor as well. There are simply not enough rich people to pay it. This was the point of my original post about expropriating everything from the 50 riches Americans only would only pay about 1 year of UBI.

Quote: kenarman

The Scandinavian countries top individual tax rates

Ever visit any of them? I'm reading a
book now and he's in that area and
is appalled at how much everything costs.
$25 for a pizza, $75 for a meal that
would cost $30 here. He jokes you
need a 2nd mortgage to get a
hotel room for 2 days. Gotta love
those socialist high taxed countries.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KClh_EiOzig


A lot of people here seem obsessed with the wellbeing of billionaires. Elon Musk and Mark Zucherburg two self made billionaires (who are actually confirmed billionaires) support UBI. This was a pretty good video CNBC put out.

Automation will replace almost all jobs probably by the end of my life. And, many people will lose their jobs much sooner



This site (despite the goofy title) is actually a pretty good resource on the probability of various jobs being automated (close to 50% of all employment is at high risk). The highest risks are the obvious jobs, telemarketer, telephone customer service (we are already seeing the trend on this), driving jobs, data entry, manufacturing jobs. Many jobs that you would not expect (including models) are also at a 99% risk.

https://willrobotstakemyjob.com/lowest-paid-high-risk-jobs

(Ironically Gaming Cage workers is one of the lowest risk of automation take over, likely due to state laws requiring verification). As well as much of the low risk list involves medical jobs (Various physicians, nurses, EMTs, psychologists, therapists, etc...), and jobs that require human interaction (performers, dancers, recreation jobs, coaches, etc....)

(Low Risk Jobs)
https://willrobotstakemyjob.com/lowest-paid-low-risk-jobs




"In 2013 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne published a report titled "The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?”. The authors examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation, by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier.

According to their estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk. Although the report is specific to the US job market, it is easy to see how this might apply all over the world.

We extracted the jobs and the probability of automation from the report and have made it easy to search for your job. We’ve added some additional information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to provide some additional information about the jobs."


The reality is eventually automation will take over all jobs (even those that are currently low risk), it may be hundreds of years, but it is coming. And, when employment becomes virtually impossible (if the concept even exists), there will need to be systems in well off countries to support its citizens. The reality is that within 200 years (likely much sooner), almost all citizens regardless of education and skills will be "welfare queens" (not a term I like, but I keep seeing certain members use it). Probably the last remaining real jobs will be government jobs (elected office of course) but also people ensuring automation compliance etc....

Quote: Gandler

Automation will replace almost all jobs probably by the end of my life. And, many people will lose their jobs much sooner

Machines for a long time could only improve on repetitive tasks. AI may not give them discernable intelligence, but they can act in increasingly complex environments.

Quote: rxwine

Machines for a long time could only improve on repetitive tasks. AI may not give them discernable intelligence, but they can act in increasingly complex environments.

Exactly, just a month or so ago they finished an AI that learned Texas Hold Em (online play obviously so no face to face interaction), that can beat every professional player it has been up against (it practices by running trillions of simulated games and refining perfect betting and bluffing strategies based on the opponents). I mean, if they let AI play online for real money, even professional poker players would be at risk.

And, AI has been able to beat Chess Grand Masters for many years now (which is less impressive than poker since Poker is more psychology).

Repetitive tasks will be the first to go. But, it will not be too long before AI can do far more.

Also, it depends what you mean by discernable intelligence. A lot of computer scientists (which I am not though, I wish I was with the market), believe that AI will surpass human brains probably in the coming decade, and many believe that it may eventually lead the end of the human race, if a program goes rogue and does not want to be stopped (which with unrestricted freedom and intelligence is only a matter of time).

Quote: Gandler

Automation will replace almost all jobs probably by the end of my life. And, many people will lose their jobs much sooner

Nonsense. Been hearing this since the 1980s. Hasn't happened. Won't happen. New jobs will pop up. Lots of jobs just cannot be automated in any practical way.

Quote: Gandler

Exactly, just a month or so ago they finished an AI that learned Texas Hold Em (online play obviously so no face to face interaction), that can beat every professional player it has been up against (it practices by running trillions of simulated games and refining perfect betting and bluffing strategies based on the opponents). I mean, if they let AI play online for real money, even professional poker players would be at risk. .

Tonight I briefly was watching a robot Walmart has started using in their Superstores 'cause they have one at one of our Superstores. At first I thought it was a floor scrubber, but it's unmanned and completely automated. It only moves about 3 miles an hour but can scan an entire side of a Walmart grocery shelves in 90 seconds.

That's way way faster than a human can do the same job. Doesn't need a break, goes around obstacles -- must be safe as no one was watching it.

Quote: rxwine

can scan an entire side of a Walmart grocery shelves in 90 seconds.

Heh, the guy says it's to free up employees for more customer service and the lady says when they installed automated cashier at the airport people lost their jobs.

Duffman may not believe humans will be replaced, but I'm pretty sure he said something about it's not the business of a business to supply jobs, but to make money. These cut costs and thereby make money, most likely. Or maybe that was stockholders he was talking about, but same idea really.

I would like stores such as WM or especially Lowe's, to have kiosks at the front of the store for customers to search items locations. Lowe's is a long ways around. My local store, I can check the location of items on my laptop before I go.

I don't like searching for an employee to ask where an item is, after I've already searched on foot for the item. Then sometimes when they don't know either they try to fast walk me around the store while they search.

It would help with the turnover problem as well, and certainly make things easier on me. How hard could that be?