Airbus 380

Quote: Fleastiff

(Get these crews out to oil derricks, get these spare parts to remote factories, get these technicians there too and get these executives to a meeting NOW).

The ultimate executive meeting was always crossing the Atlantic and returning in less than 24 hours for the ultra critical meeting.

The London based executive was catered to for just this scenario by special meeting rooms set up by British Airways at JFK. The assumption is that he has something equally important to do the next day in London and cannot spend even one night.

In the old days he could take the Concorde to JFK and take advantage of the time zones to arrive an 1:30 before he left. They had a special meeting room for a four hour meeting inside security, then he could fly back to London on the Concorde. Total time in plane is 7:50 hours for 4:05 meeting. He sleeps in his own bed and feels better about the next day's meeting.
Concorde executive schedule
Heathrow (London) - John F Kennedy (NY) - 10:30 -09:25 Flight : BA0001
John F Kennedy (NY) - Heathrow (London) - 13:30 - 22:25 Flight: BA0004
£13,000 =$20,000 (rough estimate since flights ended in 2003)

Today the executive would probably choose the premier executive flight from London that uses the old Concorde flight numbers (32 lie flat seats on the entire plane).
Present Day executive schedule
City Airport (London) - John F Kennedy (NY) - 09:50 -15:20 Flight : BA0001 (passes US customs in Shannonn Airport in Ireland)
John F Kennedy (NY) - City Airport (London) - 19:55 - 07:15 Flight: BA0002 (sleeps on plane, gets shower and makes a meeting)
£7,373.71 =$11,160

The executive is not bothered by the $11K or the price of the meeting room at JFK, but he is spending 16:50 in planes London City to JFK and return in order to spend 4:35 hours in a meeting in JFK meeting room. What is the price on that nine hours? Probably he wouldn't balk at paying $20K (an extra $9K). But what if he needs another three people on his staff?

But he probably wouldn't pay $100K for those extra nine hours. He will do his best to sleep on the plane. The thrill seeker who wants to see the earth from a suborbital flight may pay $300K for the first year of flights, $200K for the second year, and $100K long term.

You never run out of thrill seekers, you just run out of thrill seekers for a given price.

My point is that the thrill seeker's sustainable price may be five times as high as the executive price for ultra convenience and the ability to sleep comfortably on the plane.

How Is It That a Dubai-based Carrier Gets to Fly an Airbus A380 Between Milan and New York?

A quick summary of the article. Four daily non-stop flights existed from Milan to New York City, Alitalia, American, Delta (to JFK) and United (to Newark). Emirates launched daily Milan-JFK service on Oct. 1, 2013 on a 777-300ER, which originated in Dubai (which is their right under 5th freedom secured by the world's airlines in the 1940's). They recently decided to replace the airframe with an A380.

More importantly the original 777-300ER has 385 regular seats and 42 flat bed seats (60" pitch and 20.5" width) .
The replacement A380 has 399 regular seats and 76 flat bed seats (70-79" bed length), 14 closed first class seats.

So clearly the extra 14 seats in economy class are not very frightening, but the more than doubling of luxury seats, and an entire deck of the airplane catering to partying rich people hanging out at the bar means that one of the US carriers will probably have to give up their flight.

United charges $7,272 for one of up to 64 seats on Boeing 767 that was first delivered to Continental Airlines in 2000-2002. While emirates charges EUR 5,427 currently for first class, it is pretty clear that Emirates is going to win. A much nicer experience for less money on a much newer airframe.

The USA airlines are screaming in pain, calling Emirates a predator, and decrying the billions in government subsidiaries that flow into the airports in Dubai and Qatar. They are predicting the destruction of US/Europe control of TransAtlantic flights and the possible bankruptcy of a USA airline (or another merger). They say that the airlines already have service from Dubai to JFK, and the service from Dubai to Milan is just a sham to take over the more lucrative route.

The ME airlines response is that the airlines are not subsidized (just the airports) and everyone can use them for the same rate. They were just forward thinking in building amazing fleets of widebodies in the last 15 years.

Yes, the various Middle East airlines can fly more rich people around than others; they have to have a luxury class or the lower tier sheiks won't even fly them, they will charter their own personal craft and fly in super luxury.

But Prices are synthetic... sort of like slot machines. Ever hear of a Penny Slot taking just one penny per pull of the handle? Or a "quarter" slot machine that wasn't FIVE quarters per pull? The prices of planes are varied depending on how much French funding goes to Airbus at favorable rates, the prices of tickets depends on the two dollar and forty nine cent fee to use a zillion billion dollar airport.

But heck... prices on a discount airline used to get matched by the entrenched major airline until the discount airline went bankrupt, so airlines should already know what predatory pricing is. After all, the ME airlines don't have to book a profit at all... in the Middle East ALL accountants are "How Much Do You Want It To Be" accountants or they are beheaded. Debits and Credits are very simple over there.

Build market share; stifle competition is what Japan does.
Build market share; strangle competition is what the Arabs do.

Quote: Fleastiff

Build market share; stifle competition is what Japan does.
Build market share; strangle competition is what the Arabs do.

Etihad (the other UAE airline) has bought a 49% share of Alitalia effective as of 1 Jan 2015. So some of their planes might actually be from UAE fleet. Also Alitalia is part of SkyTeam which means you can book Delta flights on their website (and vica versa).

Here is the current Transatlantic traffic from Italy. With a 49% share of alitalia and judicious 5th freedom stops, the Middle East Airlines might be able to control a significant portion of this traffic. They may use Italy to stage into Mexico.

Milan
Alitalia New York–JFK,
American Airlines New York–JFK, Miami
Delta Air Lines New York–JFK Seasonal: Atlanta
United Airlines Newark
Emirates New York–JFK
TAM Airlines São Paulo–Guarulhos
Air Canada Toronto–Pearson

Rome
Alitalia Buenos Aires-Ezeiza, Miami, Rio de Janeiro-Galeão, São Paulo-Guarulhos, Toronto-Pearson, Seasonal: Chicago-O'Hare, LAX
American Airlines Seasonal: Chicago-O'Hare, New York-JFK
Delta Air Lines Atlanta, New York-JFK Seasonal: Detroit
United Airlines Seasonal: Chicago-O'Hare (begins 17 May 2015), Newark, Washington-Dulles
Aerolíneas Argentinas Buenos Aires-Ezeiza
Air Canada Seasonal: Toronto-Pearson
Air Canada Rouge Seasonal: Montréal-Trudeau
Air Transat Seasonal: Montréal-Trudeau, Toronto-Pearson
US Airways Philadelphia Seasonal: Charlotte
Emirates Dubai-International

Forbes has a three page article on America's Open Skies agreements and the role the Mideast Airlines are playing economically and geographically.

Quote: Fleastiff

Forbes has a three page article on America's Open Skies agreements a...

They feel that Etihad made a huge mistake in buying 49% share of Alitalia.

The Mideast airlines say that they are fierce competitors with each other, and the government has subsidized the airports (which anyone can fly into) and not the airlines. To be fair, now that Qantas is more tightly bound to Emirates , which includes profit sharing, and they switched their refueling and transfer hub from Singapore to Dubai, they are showing the best financial returns in years.

Singapore Airlines has switched to a number of Fifth Freedom routes, including two across the Atlantic (Frankfurt <-> JFK ) and (Moscow <-> Houston). Both Delta and United use 5th freedom routes (American and USAir do not).

Delta's Fifth Freedom flights (some one way, some both ways)
Beijing <-> Tokyo NRT
Hong Kong <-> Tokyo NRT
Singapore <-> Tokyo NRT
Shanghai <-> Tokyo NRT
Taipei <-> Tokyo NRT
Tokyo NRT -> Bangkok
Tokyo NRT -> Guam
Tokyo NRT -> Saipan
Manila -> Tokyo NRT
Manila -> Nagoya


There are a large number of fifth freedom flights across the Pacific

How does this affect the math on a glut of airliner orders?


www.chinatopix.com

Chinese airliner flies to Beijing on used cooking oil.

Quote: Fleastiff

How does this affect the math on a glut of airliner orders?

My guess is not much. I don't think we are talking about quantities of passengers, but the high paying ones.

I wouldn't know where to get hard data, but I suspect that tickets sold on 5th freedom flights are actually very few in most cases. For instance Emirates flies to Rio de Janeiro in Brazil and on to Buenos Aires in Argentina. That is primarily because of the distance nonstop to Argentina, and secondarily because there is probably not enough traffic from either city to require two planes. I doubt that most people will spring for a flight on Emirates from Rio to B-A instead of a local airline.

Emirates flying from Milan to JFK is probably the exception since Milan is relatively close to Dubai. The traffic was split four ways between the three USA airlines and Alitalia. The Airbus 380 to be put on the route in June 2015 probably upsets the balance particularly because they would take all the business class passengers. Emirates will be the only airline to offer first class (14 pods) on the route.

It should be noted that nearly every comment on the Forbes article was in favor of Emirates on this route, Most flyers want to see more competition.

A real slide presentation. Airbus has now decided that people are like liquid, and square inches are all that matter.

Still no sign of pick up in production, with only 4 planes delivered in the first three months of this year.

171 Airbus A380-861 A6-EOF Emirates 30. Jan 2015
173 Airbus A380-841 G-XLEI British Airways 13. Feb 2015
172 Airbus A380-861 A6-EOG Emirates 02. Mar 2015
175 Airbus A380-841 D-AIMM Lufthansa 14. Mar 2015


174 Airbus A380-861 A6-EOH Emirates NEXT ???

No word on the big decision!

Quote: Pacomartin

My guess is not much. I don't think we are talking about quantities of passengers, but the high paying ones.

True. Few airlines really factor in the peasant carrying a chicken and a goat who now travels by bus or doesn't travel at all.

What I meant, however, was not the flight but the fuel.
We always hear of "an aging fleet" meaning a fuel thirsty fleet Or we hear about fuel futures and contract exposures and the whims of the Saudis as to oil prices.

Now that the Chinese have flown a commercial airliner solely on used cooking oil is fuel cost issue still going to have such prominence?

Biodiesel will be available in remote areas.