New high capacity airplanes

Will US Airlines buy the LARGE size.

Will US Airlines buy any thing.
Will US Airlines survive?

Lets look at the industry itself.

Years ago pilots made a fortune, had great pension plans, read the WSJ while flying, rapidly moved from right seat to left seat.

The public experience was simple: The stewardess will be single and will live in a Girl Ghetto in some major city that is just full of Singles Bars and mini skirted women all proudly on the Liberation Pill. Oh the trip to the airport to meet the Stewardess might be a bit of a hassle but not all that bad. The flight was generally quiet, aisles wide, no kids, no old people. Drinks were plentiful and although load factors may have been high the airlines made a bundle on the flight particularly for business class last minute flights, though knowing travelers knew to ask for NYC to Dothan rather than NYC to Atlanta which could cost double.

Now its a real trek to the airport long term parking, then you lug your own luggage to a shuttle which goes to the shuttle terminal where you lug it again off the newly arrived shuttle all the way to the first shuttle because the union allows drivers to sit around rather than drive and requires passengers to fill up the first shuttle. Then you go thru a rectal exam administered by an idiot too dumb to get a job at McDonalds, long lines, crowded planes, noisy planes, brats all over the place. And you have to repeat the process to get back to your car which now can be bailed for about half what a new one would cost you.

And the pilots are wearing the same shiny uniforms but in fact they are now earning the same burger flipper wages everyone else is, have no economic clout over their sleeping schedule or flight schedule, are probably just building hours while they exist on welfare and un-opened sodas. They load themselves and passengers into the wrong airplanes, they land on taxiways, they run into situations that might not turn tragic if pilot and copilot ages summed to more than 60. Flights are unpleasant, planes are crowded, the entire flight brings the company a profit of 300 dollars.

Soon there will be Air India pilots (notorious for "certificates" and "log books full of hours" but not ever having been in an airliner at all and unable to operate the seat or seat belt). Soon there will be Chinese passengers (where the parents and grand parents refused to allow child to go to the lavatory but merely spread newspapers on the airplane seat for him to defecate on). So you tell me... do you think the industry is stable enough for sensible businessmen to make long term investments in Super Heavy planes to land on short, crumbling runways with crews that can't keep even near a glide slope but can hit a sea wall?

Who is going to be travelling so much that there will be this demand? Business travel is more profitable if its virtual.
No one wants to look at the burger flippers on the feeder airlines and admit that the bubble has burst.

Good one!

Quote: Fleastiff

Will US Airlines buy the LARGE size.

Will US Airlines buy any thing.
Will US Airlines survive?


Who is going to be travelling so much that there will be this demand? Business travel is more profitable if its virtual.
No one wants to look at the burger flippers on the feeder airlines and admit that the bubble has burst.

I work in the industry.
The 3 busiest routes I see with my own eyes where business class is almost always sold out and airlines are making a healthy profit.
EWR-BOM everybody is actually going to Pune but PNQ not convenient, you have to connect in Europe FRA and arrive 3am if departing out of USA.
BOM only 77 miles from the real destination, Pune. Also FRA-PNQ not daily.
ORD-PVG
ORD-PEK
China limits each US based carriers to 1 daily nonstop from any hub so If you cant schedule multiple non stops in 1 day 1 city pair, only way to increase capacity is larger.

Quote: terapined

I work in the industry.
The 3 busiest routes I see with my own eyes where business class is almost always sold out and airlines are making a healthy profit.
EWR-BOM everybody is actually going to Pune but PNQ not convenient, you have to connect in Europe FRA and arrive 3am if departing out of USA.
BOM only 77 miles from the real destination, Pune. Also FRA-PNQ not daily. ORD-PVG. ORD-PEK. China limits each US based carriers to 1 daily nonstop from any hub so If you cant schedule multiple non stops in 1 day 1 city pair, only way to increase capacity is larger.

Do companies actually pay for business class on a sixteen hour flight?
Newark to Mumbai (12,565 km 7,807 mi 6,784 nm) 16 hr 05 min
United Airlines UA 49 - Boeing 777-200ER since 1 October 2007
Air India AI 191 Boeing 777-300ER since 31 October 2010

At the beginning of 2013 Aeromexico had seven 767s and four 777s, but is upgrading to 20 widebodies at the end of 2020 (all 787s).

Aeromexico is partly getting around that 1 daily nonstop by flying it's 777 from Mexico City to Tijuana first, and then on to PVG. In Tijuana they can pick up business travelers from Southern California. That process will be greatly aided when they complete the border crossing pedestrian bridge directly to the airport, so that gringos don't have to cross the border with the hordes, and take a taxi to the airport. A second flight to Beijing is also being considered.

An article that I read said that Aeromexico will keep it's upgraded widebody fleet all flying out of Mexico City and not expand to any other Mexican airport. They will increase frequency and consider new European destinations like Amsterdam, or re-instating Barcelona and Frankfurt which were cancelled.

Quote: question

The Boeing 787-9 is listed on the Boeing website as having a range of 15,372 kilometers.
Juarez Intl, Mexico City, MX (MEX) to Pudong International Airport, Shanghai, CN (PVG) is 12,900 km (16% less than posted range).
I read that the altitude of AICM (Mexico City airport) is enough so that a 787 can't reach Shanghai nonstop. I wouldn't have thought the jets would be that sensitive. While the airport is high, it's not a mountain airport (7,343' = 2,238 m).

For the 787-8, MEX sheds about 50,000lbs off of its takeoff weight due to altitude. With a typical payload of about 310,000 pounds, that limits the fuel to about 140,000lbs and shortens the range by about 1,500nm. This prevents the 787 or any other wide body from making it to Asia. However, it doesn't prevent planes from making it to MEX.

That the way AM 58 originates in Tijuana and flies to Tokyo while AM 57 can fly Tokyo direct to MEX.

Quote: boymimbo

For the 787-8, MEX sheds about 50,000lbs off of its takeoff weight due to altitude.

Interesting.

I'm reminded of the story that Boeing developed the 727 so smaller jets could operate out of Denver, ergo the 3 engine design. Usually aeronautical engineers prefer pairs of engines when they need more than one.

Quote: boymimbo

For the 787-8, MEX sheds about 50,000lbs off of its takeoff weight due to altitude. With a typical payload of about 310,000 pounds, that limits the fuel to about 140,000lbs and shortens the range by about 1,500nm. This prevents the 787 or any other wide body from making it to Asia. However, it doesn't prevent planes from making it to MEX.

That the way AM 58 originates in Tijuana and flies to Tokyo while AM 57 can fly Tokyo direct to MEX.

Juarez Intl, Mexico City, MX (MEX) to (in kilometers)

4,250 Lima Intl Jorge Chavez Lima PE (LIM)
6,610 Arturo Merino Benitez Santiago CL (SCL)
7,390 Ministro Pistarini Buenos Aires AR (EZE)
7,420 Sao Paulo Airport Sao Paulo BR (SAO)
7,680 Rio De Janeiro Airport Rio De Janeiro BR (RIO)
8,900 Heathrow London GB (LHR)
9,060 Barajas Arpt Madrid ES (MAD)
9,190 Charles De Gaulle Intl Arpt Paris FR (CDG)
11,200 Narita Intl, Tokyo JP (NRT)
12,100 Incheon Intl Seoul KR (ICN)
12,900 Pudong International Airport, Shanghai CN (PVG)

Right now AM 57/58 are flying with a Boeing 737-200ER with a posted range on the website 14,305 km. Mexico City to Narita is 22% less than max range. But if you must takeoff with 16%-20% less than maximum fuel because of altitude, than that makes sense.

I understand that the difference between a 787-9 and 737-200ER ( 15,372 km - 14,305 km) is enough that they will be able to bypass Tijuana entirely for the Mexico city- Tokyo flight. They were anxious to switch out the 777 for a 787 so they could fly from Mexico City to Monterrey before going to Tokyo. MTY-NRT is only 500 km shorter than MEX-NRT but combined with the 1000 km longer range aircraft it is sufficient. Also MTY is a much lower altitude of (1,280' =390 m).

Seoul is probably the next most obvious destination for Aeromexico.

Aeromexico must retire the 767's flying to South America first, before they can retire the 777's.

Thanks for that explanation. The San Diego papers used to say that they had to go to Tijuana or the flights wouldn't be profitable without California customers. When San Diego got their own nonstop to Tokyo I assumed they took a big cut.

Quote: Pacomartin

Airline		Airframes	Seats July 2014	Average seats/plane	Flights (month)	Traffic	Routes
Emirates Airline	(EK)	50	1,326,120	489	2,711.90	43.2%	25
Singapore Airlines	(SQ)	19	413,554	471	878.03	13.5%	11
Lufthansa	(LH)	12	259,828	527	493.03	8.5%	8
Air France	(AF)	10	208,880	516	404.81	6.8%	7
Qantas	(QF)	12	200,376	484	414.00	6.5%	5
Korean Air	(KE)	10	134,310	407	330.00	4.4%	4
China Southern	(CZ)	5	125,488	506	248.00	4.1%	3
Thai Airways International	(TG)	6	124,722	507	246.00	4.1%	4
British Airways	(BA)	6	111,622	469	238.00	3.6%	3
Malaysia Airlines	(MH)	6	91,884	494	186.00	3.0%	2
Asiana Airlines	(OZ)	2	71,280	495	144.00	2.3%	4
11 Airlines		138	3,068,064				76

I think the A380 is a really neat aircraft but unfortunately I don't put a lot of clients on some these airlines
I only sell EK if going to DXB. I sometimes sell it for an Asia to Europe connecting thru DXB but kind of rare. They are expensive.
SQ is expensive. If going to SIN my go to flight is UA ORD to SIN, stopping in HKG but no plane change.
I really only sell SQ if bopping around southeast Asia or going to DPS which is a pain to get to. They are pretty expensive.
I sell a ton of LH. Its my go to airline for bopping all over Europe. I also sell a lot of USA to FRA rt. LH has such a close relationship with UA, a lot of the fares match up and are interchangeable.
I sell some AF, they are part of Delta Sky Team, My goto skyteam airline for bopping around Europe is KLM over AF.
Don't sell much QF, Going to Australia is expensive and QF is expensive. Usually its UA to Australia.
Don't sell much KE, OZ usually cheaper and usually sell DL to SEL. I consider KE for China to Korea but again OZ usually cheaper.
CZ, I just use them to bop around China.
TG Sell very little, sometimes consider them for Southeast Asia connections thru BKK.
BA. I sell very little. If I do sell them, gotta be careful, they have some nonref no change fares. use it or lose it. Want to change, buy a new ticket.
MH sell some for connections in southeast Asia like TG. They were my go to airline for bopping around se asia until the accidents.
OZ, I sell them sometimes , good deals on bus class USA to SEL.

Bottom line, I sell a ton of international tickets, very few on A380

Quote: terapined

I only sell EK if going to DXB. I sometimes sell it for an Asia to Europe connecting thru DXB but kind of rare. They are expensive.
SQ is expensive.
If going to SIN my go to flight is UA ORD to SIN, stopping in HKG but no plane change.
Bottom line, I sell a ton of international tickets, very few on A380

I imagine. It's not travel for the budget conscious. It is amazing though, that Emirates has worked themselves to such a large airline in 30 years, selling only to the wealthy. It's very profitable. I sometimes think that United/Lufthansa will be the next mega merger.

Available millions of seat kilometers per day for 2013.
950 American (with USAir)
905 United
860 Delta
590 Emirates
460 Southwest
420 Lufthansa
407 China Southern
389 China Air
383 Air France
360 British Airways

Quote: terapined

If going to SIN my go to flight is UA ORD to SIN, stopping in HKG but no plane change.

I suppose it might be interesting to go the other way (extra 7:20 hours), but you would have time to take a taxi from the airport and see the city.

$1,318 r/t
Total time: 22hr 5min No change of planes.
1:15 PM-6:10 PM (15hr 55min) Chicago, IL - Hong Kong Time between flights: 2hr 15min
8:25 PM-12:20 AM ( 3hr 55min) Hong Kong - Singapore

$1,249 r/t
Total time: 29hr 25min with One change of plane
8:35 PM-7:10 PM (12hr 35min) O'Hare Airport (ORD)- Dubai International Airport (DXB) Time between flights: 7hr 55min
3:05 AM-3:00 PM (7hr 55min) Dubai International Airport (DXB) -Changi airport (SIN)