Israeli conflict

Friday the 13th.

Mouse sticking again.

Quote: SOOPOO

Not good news. Israel has bombed nuclear and military facilities in Tehran. Hard to imagine Iran doesn’t hit back from all its allies in the region. Israel is a tiny country. It does have the technology edge, but might be overwhelmed. I haven’t had this type of a queasy feeling for quite a while.

The problem for Iran is they don't have much of an air force and it is unlikely to turn into a ground war. Iranian missiles have terrible accuracy so it is very unlikely they will hit any strategic targets. I think Israel has every advantage. Iran will be less coordinated than Russia is. In a few days Israel will be flying planes over Iran with almost no consequences. I would expect that within a matter of weeks the Iranian government will be toppled.

Quote: SOOPOO

Not good news. Israel has bombed nuclear and military facilities in Tehran. Hard to imagine Iran doesn’t hit back from all its allies in the region. Israel is a tiny country. It does have the technology edge, but might be overwhelmed. I haven’t had this type of a queasy feeling for quite a while.

I have not watched many full stories, but so far it seems Iran is just lobbing missiles and Israel is knocking most of them down. Israel may be trying to pull a rope-a-dope on Iran, let them fire most of what they have then be able to hit back even harder. Don't for a moment think KSA if not totally in on it at the least gave a "wink" to let it happen.

Quote: AZDuffman

I have not watched many full stories, but so far it seems Iran is just lobbing missiles and Israel is knocking most of them down. Israel may be trying to pull a rope-a-dope on Iran, let them fire most of what they have then be able to hit back even harder. Don't for a moment think KSA if not totally in on it at the least gave a "wink" to let it happen.

The Iranians do have quite a lot of missiles, they just are not very effective. They can be sent at cities and maybe hit them if they get through, but specific targets will be very hard to hit. It is more likely they will take the Russian approach and just throw them at population centers. Although that can be devastating, it will have very little military impact.

Quote: DRich

I would expect that within a matter of weeks the Iranian government will be toppled.

Were that to happen, what form of government would follow?

Hopefully not another theocracy, that's what's screwed them up and over.

Quote: missedhervee

Were that to happen, what form of government would follow?

Hopefully not another theocracy, that's what's screwed them up and over.

I would expect another Theocracy

Quote: DRich

The problem for Iran is they don't have much of an air force and it is unlikely to turn into a ground war. Iranian missiles have terrible accuracy so it is very unlikely they will hit any strategic targets. I think Israel has every advantage. Iran will be less coordinated than Russia is. In a few days Israel will be flying planes over Iran with almost no consequences. I would expect that within a matter of weeks the Iranian government will be toppled.

How many coffees do you want to bet? No way is it likely that Iran’s government is toppled. It’s a small chance of course. But even the Iranians that hate their own government I’m sure hate Israel more.

Quote: SOOPOO

How many coffees do you want to bet? No way is it likely that Iran’s government is toppled. It’s a small chance of course. But even the Iranians that hate their own government I’m sure hate Israel more.

Maintaining my general silence on matters involving Israel and Palestine, I note that: (1) The attack doesn't say anything good about Iranian air defense. Of course, it helps that Israel used the latest F-35 jets and Iran...didn't. (2) The Iranian military are loyal to the religious authorities/Ayatollah. If Israel succeeds in decapitating the Ayatollah, it would not stop the military's support for the religious authorities, and the military is the only power that matters in Iran.

Quote: SOOPOO

How many coffees do you want to bet? No way is it likely that Iran’s government is toppled. It’s a small chance of course. But even the Iranians that hate their own government I’m sure hate Israel more.

I don't think so either. Syria had the kind of rebel forces inside that helped bring it down, but I don't think Iran has anything similar. They certainly have people who want to get rid of the current government, but it doesn't seem to have any coherent organization.