Democratic Nominee in 2020

Quote: terapined

All this talk of another person instead of Biden is just complete BS.
Biden won, he's running, end of story.

From your lips to gods ear. I certainly
hope you are correct. Biden is a
disaster and getting worse every
day. Daffy Duck would look better
than Biden at this point. Biden
is the perfect Dem candidate. Can
Trump get that lucky.

Bernie is still getting 16%-28% of the vote even though he suspended his campaign on April 8

April 17 (27.8%) Wyoming 14 electoral college votes
April 28 (16.6%) Ohio 136 electoral college votes
May 2 (23.1%) Kansas 39 electoral college votes


Back to the general election.
The winner of the Presidency in 14 elections after JFK in 1960 has won in Florida all but one time (in 1992 Florida voted for George H Bush instead of Bill Clinton)

It looks like 2020 will have the standard outcome. Whoever wins Florida will win the Presidency.

Quote: Pacomartin

Bernie is still getting 16%-28% of the vote even though he suspended his campaign on April 8

April 17 (27.8%) Wyoming 14 electoral college votes
April 28 (16.6%) Ohio 136 electoral college votes
May 2 (23.1%) Kansas 39 electoral college votes

Interesting. Percent support probably not that high since as it is already predetermined the nominee many people will not show up. But that so many people show up to vote Bernie does show a real Democrat Party split. Biden goes down and it will be many times worse in 2024.

Looking at the 5 incumbents who have lost re-elections since 1896
Taft and Bush had unusually strong 3rd party candidates that sucked a lot of their votes. Ford is our only unelected President, Hoover and Carter had something exceptionally bad happen in their first term (depression and hostages).

William Howard Taft 1912 United States presidential election Woodrow Wilson
Herbert Hoover 1932 United States presidential election Franklin D. Roosevelt
Gerald Ford 1976 United States presidential election Jimmy Carter
Jimmy Carter 1980 United States presidential election Ronald Reagan
George H. W. Bush 1992 United States presidential election Bill Clinton

Quote: AZDuffman

to vote Bernie does show a real Democrat Party split.

It takes an exceptionally strong candidate to beat an incumbent.

Trump's narrowest wins in 2016 (less than 1%) were Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He can afford to lose all three of these states and still win re-election if he takes every other state and district he won in 2016.

Quote: Pacomartin

Trump's narrowest wins in 2016 (less than 1%) were Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He can afford to lose all three of these states and still win re-election if he takes every other state and district he won in 2016.

This is not correct.

If the map stays the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI, MI and PA it will be Biden 278 to Donny 260.

www.270towin.com

Quote: ams288

This is not correct.

MEA CULPA. You are correct


In 2016 Hillary received 227 electoral college votes with 5 faithless electors (she should have gotten 232 votes). The 270to win website gives the same 232 votes to Biden.

So if Biden wins PA and MI he will have 268 votes and lose. If he wins all three states he will win .

Quote: Pacomartin

It takes an exceptionally strong candidate to beat an incumbent.

While this has been the case, I think that the Democrats can win with a weak and forgetful candidate this year.

The first thing going for them is that Trump has strong support, but an equally strong opposition. You won't change a lot of votes in those groups.

If the virus stays, or comes back, as we move through the next few months, the economy will not rebound as quickly as if it stays away. If the economy is bad and the virus is back, there may be more willing to vote for the other candidate in spite of his obvious weaknesses.

The best thing for Biden is continued infection, lock downs, panic, and a crappy economy. None of those have anything to do with his strength as a candidate.

No one will even look at the fact that he has already degraded woman by saying that he would nominate one of them instead of saying that he is going to pick the very best person for VP and then have it end up being a woman. I know that he did that to gain momentum in the primaries, but it isn't a good way to look at woman...I'm gonna pick one, no matter what... There are plenty of women who could compete with, and be a better VP than, men that may have been considered.

Quote: Pacomartin

In 2016 Hillary received 227 electoral college votes with 5 faithless electors

Can someone explain to me how the parties are unable to vet their electors that there were actually FIVE that did not vote for Hillary even though they were 'her' electors?

So if according to the map it is a tie, one elector who decides to pick Biden even though he should be a Trump elector, can actually fully determine that Biden should be the next President? And nothing can be done about it?

Or vice-versa, of course.

Can mayor Bloomberg offer a $10,000,000 book deal to any elector that changes from Trump to Biden? Not telling the elector to do so, of course, but IF he does, it would make an interesting book......?

Quote: SOOPOO

Can someone explain to me how the parties are unable to vet their electors that there were actually FIVE that did not vote for Hillary even though they were 'her' electors?

I can’t explain it, but your premise is totally wrong. The electors do not belong to “the parties.”

Edit: reading up on it now, it’s very complicated, but the parties do have some say in picking the electors. Different states appoint their electors in different ways.

And if Donny loses in November, I FULLY expect him and his stooges to try to bully the electoral college into somehow denying Biden the win.