Democratic Nominee in 2020

Poll
No votes (0%)
4 votes (18.18%)
2 votes (9.09%)
1 vote (4.54%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (4.54%)
1 vote (4.54%)
8 votes (36.36%)
2 votes (9.09%)
3 votes (13.63%)

22 members have voted

April 1st, 2020 at 5:15:27 PM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 17
Posts: 5539
Quote: SOOPOO
I didn't think I could detest Bernie Sanders more than I already did, but I was wrong. The only possible reason he should push forward is to be the nominee if Biden dies during this primary process. He must be thinking that if Biden dies before Sanders has pulled out he would claim the victory even though it of course doesn't work that way.

How about this.... "I have so much work to do as a Senator during this mismanaged by Trump pandemic, I am suspending my campaign and wholeheartedly endorsing Joe Biden to succeed president Orange Man.".

Instead of this... "I don't give a frick if my staying in the race detracts from Biden. I actually don't care what happens. As long as I get to continue to be in the news...." Not sure which of my 3 houses I'll be in but you all know how to find me.....


Bernie has always been an extremely stubborn man and his supporters have a cult like devotion to him.

I think he’s banking more on Biden committing some unforgivable gaffe more than him dying. But yes, it’s clear he’s only staying in to be the default candidate in waiting if something happens to Joe.
Righties in 2020: “It’s okay if grandma dies, but NOT the buildings she shops in!!!”
April 1st, 2020 at 7:49:40 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 963
Posts: 11255
Quote: ams288
I think he’s banking more on Biden committing some unforgivable gaffe more than him dying. But yes, it’s clear he’s only staying in to be the default candidate in waiting if something happens to Joe.

Quote: Bernie Sander
“If I or anybody else goes into the Democratic convention with a substantial plurality, I believe that individual, me or anyone else, should be the candidate of the Democratic Party.”- CNN town hall in late February.


Clearly Bernie's statement was made when it was still believed that the candidates other than the top 2 would earn a substantial number of delegates. As it is they earned 81+55+26+7+2=4.3% of the total, making the possibility of nobody getting a majority very low.

It's possible that the coronavirus will change the mixture of people who go to the polls. Perhaps Bernie supporters are more willing to risk death. Also with almost 700 delegates now up for contention on 2 June (9 weeks from today), we have the possibility that the coronavirus is still raging .

The first Democratic presidential convention dates back to 1832, when Andrew Jackson was named the party’s nominee.
The first Republican convention took place in 1856, with Senator John Fremont earning the party nomination (he went on to lose to James Buchanan).

A contested convention takes place when the state primaries and caucuses don’t result in a single candidate earning a majority of delegate votes before the convention. When there’s no clear nominee on the first ballot, that’s when the stuff of political legend—smoky closed-door wheeling and dealing, dark horse candidates brought in—would begin.

But no convention has gone past the first ballot since 1952, and by the 1970s, state caucuses and primaries became the norm for both parties, typically resulting in one candidate securing enough delegates to assure the party’s straight-forward nomination at the convention.

The 1980 Democratic convention was nearly a contested one with Ted Kennedy making a major challenge to Jimmy Carter. The most serious uproar at a recent Democratic convention was 1968 when the assassination of Robert Kennedy removed the front runner.
April 1st, 2020 at 8:41:06 PM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 141
Posts: 9401
1. Bernie's last shot at this. Might as well go to the bitter end. (Pretty sure)
2. Bernie's demographic is younger than Biden's. Biden could lose more voters to the pandemic.
GOP terrified Trump can't beat old sleepy senile candidate
April 1st, 2020 at 11:03:13 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 136
Posts: 20877
As of 4/1 the Biden campaign has $20
mil, the Trump campaign has $225 mil.
Bernie raised a lot but he spent a lot
too.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
April 2nd, 2020 at 5:40:21 AM permalink
SOOPOO
Member since: Feb 19, 2014
Threads: 12
Posts: 1900
Quote: Evenbob
As of 4/1 the Biden campaign has $20
mil, the Trump campaign has $225 mil.
Bernie raised a lot but he spent a lot
too.


Would it be legal for Trump to, say, donate $25,000,000 from his campaign for first responder masks or some other stunt that would be great publicity? Likely more effective than whatever commercials he was going to make?
April 2nd, 2020 at 8:32:06 AM permalink
pew
Member since: Jan 8, 2013
Threads: 4
Posts: 1231
Quote: SOOPOO
Would it be legal for Trump to, say, donate $25,000,000 from his campaign for first responder masks or some other stunt that would be great publicity? Likely more effective than whatever commercials he was going to make?
He just needs to keep doing a great job and he rest will take care of itself.
April 2nd, 2020 at 8:59:48 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 963
Posts: 11255
Quote: rxwine
2. Bernie's demographic is younger than Biden's. Biden could lose more voters to the pandemic.


Death tolls are never going to be high enough to affect politics. It is possible that "fear of going out to vote" will affect politics.
April 2nd, 2020 at 10:20:20 AM permalink
SOOPOO
Member since: Feb 19, 2014
Threads: 12
Posts: 1900
Quote: Pacomartin
Death tolls are never going to be high enough to affect politics. It is possible that "fear of going out to vote" will affect politics.


I'm not so sure. It will depend on how much blame someone will attribute to Trump. If 200,000 Americans die, everyone will know someone dead, and many, especially those in big cities, will know many. I can easily see a Trump supporter whose 45 year old wife died from COVID-19 switching.
Remember, in swing states it doesn't take a large number of votes to swing the other way to affect an entire election.

And how the economy is doing next November will be the key, I think. Basically mostly agreeing with you. But it is not clear.
April 2nd, 2020 at 10:42:47 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 963
Posts: 11255
Quote: SOOPOO
If 200,000 Americans die, everyone will know someone dead, and many, especially those in big cities, will know many. I can easily see a Trump supporter whose 45 year old wife died from COVID-19 switching.


You are still talking about reaction about handling the disease.

I was thinking of actual people dying. It is difficult for vital statistics to make a huge change in the short term. A lot of people think tragedy can stop population growth.

In the US there are still 26,000 more births than deaths every week. It will take something much worse than COVID-19 to bring the natural increase in the US to a halt.
April 2nd, 2020 at 12:23:38 PM permalink
terapined
Member since: Aug 6, 2014
Threads: 49
Posts: 5977
Quote: Pacomartin
You are still talking about reaction about handling the disease.

I was thinking of actual people dying. It is difficult for vital statistics to make a huge change in the short term. A lot of people think tragedy can stop population growth.

In the US there are still 26,000 more births than deaths every week. It will take something much worse than COVID-19 to bring the natural increase in the US to a halt.

Due to the lockdown
probably have a December2020/January2021 planetary baby boom
Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World"