Trump vs Hillary 2016

Quote: AZDuffman

And next to impossible to knock the incumbent out.

George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton in 1992.
Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980.
Gerald Ford lost to Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Herbert Hoover lost to Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932.
William Taft lost to Woodrow Wilson in 1912.

Granted dumping the VP probably won't work, but it is an attention getter that is short of resigning yourself.

Quote: Pacomartin

George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton in 1992.
Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980.
Gerald Ford lost to Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Herbert Hoover lost to Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932.
William Taft lost to Woodrow Wilson in 1912.

Granted dumping the VP probably won't work, but it is an attention getter that is short of resigning yourself.

Carter was presiding over a disaster in Iran along with an awful economy.
Ford was never elected and coming off Watergate
Hoover lost in a depression
Bush41 lost in a 3 way race that took more votes from him in the places important to him.

Point being that when the incumbent loses it is usually because of something big helping the other side. Look at 2012, Obama presided over an awful economy with high unemployment and he still pulled it out, albeit with less votes and margin than he had when he first won.

Quote: AZDuffman

Point being that when the incumbent loses it is usually because of something big helping the other side. Look at 2012, Obama presided over an awful economy with high unemployment and he still pulled it out, albeit with less votes and margin than he had when he first won.

Smaller margin and yet it was STILL an electoral college landslide.

Poor Republicans... The electoral college works against them.

Quote: Nareed

Is anyone surprised Trump's campaign has been stealing money?

http://time.com/money/4440656/cancel-donald-trump-recurring-contribution/

I'm not. He's a con man.

There is also a lot of money missing. His campaign collected like $80 million in July, and at the end of the month they had like $30 million cash on hand, so where did that $50 million go??? (Note: these numbers aren't exact, I can't find the article I initially read this in).

They haven't spent it on campaign ads, they haven't spent it on ground operations in the states, so where did it go??

There's speculation Trump used the campaign donations he received to repay himself for the loans he made to his campaign during the primary. That will be hilarious if it turns out to be true. We should know around Labor Day because he has to report it to the FEC by the end of August.

Quote: ams288

Poor Republicans... The electoral college works against them.

An "average" state has 436/51 =8.55 congressman + 2 senators, so that is 10.55 electoral college votes. Any state smaller than average gets a boost from the electoral college, because they are over represented.

Most Republican states are smaller than average, so they electoral college works for them.

9 Alabama
9 S Carolina
8 Kentucky
8 Louisiana
7 Oklahoma
6 Utah
6 Arkansas
6 Kansas
6 Mississippi
5 W Virginia
5 Nebraska
4 Idaho
3 Wyoming
3 N Dakota
3 S Dakota
3 Montana
3 Alaska

Quote: Pacomartin

An "average" state has 436/51 =8.55 congressman + 2 senators, so that is 10.55 electoral college votes. Any state smaller than average gets a boost from the electoral college, because they are over represented.

Most Republican states are smaller than average, so they electoral college works for them.

Then perhaps I should rephrase:

Poor Republicans... Their unpopular social policies and racist politicians work against them.

Quote: ams288

Poor Republicans...

That's better.

It has been a while since the GOP was totally slaughtered. In 1964 Barry Goldwater only won 6 states against Lyndon Johnson.


The August 12th version of the map has Clinton already winning the election. She is polling at more than 10% in states with 179 EV and she is polling (5%-10%) in states with 93 EV.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/clinton-trump-electoral-map

Can a party legally replace their candidate before the election? I don't want to know if it is a good idea or not, just if it is legal. Does it require consent of the candidate.

Quote: Pacomartin

Can a party legally replace their candidate before the election?

Yes, but it varies in all states, and probably it's too late now to meet the filing deadlines.

Which won't stop editorial writers from suggesting it and speculating about it.

Me, I'm undecided. Which would be the biggest, most pathetic Trump tantrum? If he lost the election, or if he were dumped by the GOP?

Quote: Nareed

Me, I'm undecided. Which would be the biggest, most pathetic Trump tantrum? If he lost the election, or if he were dumped by the GOP?

He will do what he has always done his whole life
When he loses. No concession speech
instead
He will go to court and sue :-)

As to him now blaming the media on his falling poll numbers.
The traditional media has fare less influence theses days
Its the internet.

Quote: terapined

He will do what he has always done his whole life
When he loses. No concession speech
instead
He will go to court and sue :-)

But he cannot sue alone. He needs his Trumpkins to stage protests in support (you see if he doesn't). That would be fun.

At this point, his best chance to win the presidency is to drop dead, literally, and hope the sympathy vote carries him over.