Trump vs Hillary 2016

Quote: Pacomartin

But they are still never going to vote for Hillary.

Hillary has always been the favored candidate. But I think predictions of a complete slaughter are premature.
In 1984 Mondale won his home state of Minnesota by less than 4K votes, or .2% of the vote.

If Gary Johnson were to win any state - Utah would be the one. He polls significantly better there than anywhere else.

Quote: ams288

There was a poll yesterday showing Trump was only up by 2 points in South Carolina.

I saw that. Also commentary that the poll might be an anomaly. We should wait for further polls.

Still, if South Carolina, Georgia and Utah are that narrow, Clinton might win if GOP voters stay home in droves rather than vote.

I wonder how much Heinlein's dictum matters. Are people more likely to vote for someone than against someone, or is the reverse true? This year, no large majorities want to vote for either candidate. But large groups want to vote against them. IMO, Trump leads in the latter and trails in the former.

New "battleground state" polls just released (can these even be called battleground states at this point?!):

Flordia - Clinton +5
North Carolina - Clinton +9
Virginia - Clinton +13
Colorado - Clinton +14

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/polls-clinton-running-table-key-battlegrounds-n629136

Quote: ams288

North Carolina - Clinton +9

When the Repubs pushed through HB2, they were also voting against NC Tar Heel basketball which is pretty much a religion in NC
Right now the NCAA is going to pull all tournament games out of NC due to HB2
You mess with NC B-ball in NC , you are going down

Quote: Pacomartin

These five states did not vote for Obama, and Trump doubts that they will vote for Hillary, but they are too important to ignore. So Trump will campaign there. However, if he loses one of these states, he has little or no chance at victory.

11 Indiana
10 Missouri
11 Arizona
16 Georgia
15 N Carolina
63

Quote: ams288

New "battleground state" polls just released (can these even be called battleground states at this point?!):
Florida - Clinton +5
North Carolina - Clinton +9
Virginia - Clinton +13
Colorado - Clinton +14

Wow. Florida , Virginia, and Colorado are not particularly surprising.
But North Carolina with Clinton +9 even this far before the election does not look good for Trump. N Carolina voted Democrat for POTUS in 1976 (Jimmy Carter )and 2008 (Obama first term). Other than that they voted Republican 8 out of last 10 elections.

North Carolina census estimates July 1, 2015,
63.8% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino
22.1% Black or African American
9.1% Hispanic or Latino

Florida census estimates July 1, 2015,
55.3% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino
16.8% Black or African American
24.5% Hispanic or Latino

Quote: Pacomartin

North Carolina census estimates July 1, 2015,
63.8% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino

[..]

Florida census estimates July 1, 2015,
55.3% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino

That means about 32% and 28% white women, another group Trump has alienated. So his most "solid" constituency per state is tiny, and he might yet alienate them somehow. That's his main talent.

If the Democrats had run someone not on the RNC's enemies list, Trump would be losing even in solid GOP states. Conversely if the GOP had nominated anyone else, even someone as bad as Cruz, Clinton would be drowning by now.

The GOP had a large field, but the Democrats pretty much conceded to Clinton. Sanders surprised everyone by laying speed bumps in her path, but there was never any real question, outside of media hype, that he'd lose.

Quote: Pacomartin

I think you are reflecting personal opinion into your prediction. The 19 states where Trump is not even campaigning are almost certain to vote for Trump.

I think you are reflecting your personal opinion that Trump is a Republican and thus will win states that Republicans usually do. At this point he would likely win most if not all of those states, but he has a few more months of gaffes to alienate even more voters.

Here's another two considerations.

Assange drops a bomb on Hillary before early voting starts.

Or he drops it after most early voting is over.

The thing is, early voters won't be able to lean heavily into a third party candidate if they already voted.

Add this to the 8 member Supreme Court which could end up in a stalemate if there is something contested. (thanks Republicans)

What a fine mess you got us in, Ollie.

Quote: rxwine

Here's another two considerations.

Assange drops a bomb on Hillary before early voting starts.

Or he drops it after most early voting is over.

Or within the next few months.

But, as I said, it would have to be really BIG, and it would have to be simple. Something along the lines of her having ordered a hit, or setting up a drug-trafficking ring, or having slept with Putin, or having sent plutonium to North Korea.

Quote: SOOPOO

I think you are reflecting your personal opinion that Trump is a Republican and thus will win states that Republicans usually do.

Well it is more my opinion that the majority of people in these states would not vote Demcrat, regardless of who the candidates were.

These are the 14 states + DC that Trump won't be campaigning in either. But these they are conceding to the Democrats.

55 California
29 New York
20 Illinois
14 New Jersey
12 Washington

11 Massachusetts
10 Maryland
7 Connecticut
7 Oregon
5 New Mexico

4 Hawaii
4 Rhode Island
3 Delaware
3 Vermont
3 District of Columbia
187