Trump vs Hillary 2016

Quote: Nareed

The explanation is simple: in a year when the Democrats offer up a candidate with BIG negatives, the GOP goes and finds a candidate with HUGE negatives.

*YUGE

Quote: Nareed

I'll go as far as to say the GOP ought to worry about the large Hispanic population in Texas.

Probably not a problem for GOP for a few years in Texas. The Latino population is too young or they don't vote.

Hispanic population growth peaked in the 1990s in the USA. From 1995 to 2000, annual average growth was 4.8%, and growth has declined since then. From 2010 to 2014, the annual average growth had dropped to 2.2%. Part of the reason for this decline in population growth is the slowdown in immigration from Latin America, and in particular, from Mexico.

President Bush took 35% of the Latino vote in 2000.
President Bush took 44% of the Latino vote in 2004. (got the GOP very excited)
John McCain took 31% in 2008
Mitt Romney took 27% in 2012.
Trump says "Hispanics love me". I think most Latinos don't really care for the term, "Hispanics" as it is overly bureaucratic.

In 2003, the Congressional Hispanic Conference (CHC) , a Republican Party-controlled caucus in the United States Congress, was formed. Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC) was organized in 1976 by five Hispanic Congressmen.

In order to get a full conference the Republicans admitted people like Senator Pat Toomey because all of his maternal great-grandparents had been born in the Azores, and he was therefore Portuguese and hence Latino. My grandfather was born in Salamanca Spain, but I don't check Latino on the census box.

In Texas, Mitt Romney took 29% of Latino vote in Texas, but Latino Decisions’ estimated that Latinos comprised 26.6% of the Texas electorate.
As the Latino population of Texas was ~38%, so the missing 12% is too young, or they don't vote.

Race and Hispanic Origin (Census bureau TEXAS)
White alone, percent, July 1, 2015, (V2015) (a) 79.7%
Black or African American alone, percent, July 1, 2015, (V2015) (a) 12.5%
American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, July 1, 2015, (V2015) (a) 1.0%
Asian alone, percent, July 1, 2015, (V2015) (a) 4.7%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, July 1, 2015, (V2015) (a) 0.1%
Two or More Races, percent, July 1, 2015, (V2015) 1.9%
Hispanic or Latino, percent, July 1, 2015, (V2015) (b) 38.8%
White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, July 1, 2015, (V2015) 43.0%

Quote: Pacomartin

Trump says "Hispanics love me".

If Trump said at 11 am that it's morning, I'd look out the window to check.

I'd be surprised if he gets as much as 5% of the Hispanic vote overall.

Quote: Nareed

I'd be surprised if he gets as much as 5% of the Hispanic vote overall.

Probably won't be that bad. The Republican candidate usually gets at least 5% of the African American vote. When GW Bush got record Hispanic vote for his second term, the GOP thought they were finally getting on the right side of the changing demographics of America. It didn't last long.

But I don't see Trump going to a private barbecue at the home of the President of Mexico and exchanging boots.

Quote: Pacomartin

I think most Latinos don't really care for the term, "Hispanics" as it is overly bureaucratic.

The federal government loves the term, that is for sure. They clearly make you choose yes or no to being hispanic.

Quote: Pacomartin

Probably won't be that bad.

Probably won't be that good, you mean.

Quote: AZDuffman

The federal government loves the term, that is for sure. They clearly make you choose yes or no to being hispanic.

Quote: Etymonline

Hispania Latin name for the Iberian peninsula, literally "country of the Spaniards"
Hispanic (adj.)"pertaining to Spain" (especially ancient Spain) 1580s, from Latin Hispanicus, from Hispania "Iberian Peninsula," from Hispanus "Spaniard" (see Spaniard). Specific application to Spanish-speaking parts of the New World is from 1889, American English; since c. 1972 especially applied to Spanish-speaking persons of Latin American descent living in the U.S. As a noun meaning "Hispanic person" from 1972.

I think the federal government chose the word in 1972 because they weren't sure how many Brazilians would try to emigrate. Since the word Hispania is much older than the word Portugal, it applies to both Spanish and Portuguese. Technically it could apply to people of European descent from either Spain, Portugal or the various colonies like Azores, Canaries, or even the colonies in Africa. Latino specifically means or from the Roman Empire, so it could apply to French, Italians, and Romanians as well.

Lusophone (Portuguese Speaking) or hispanophone (Spanish speaking) would be more accurate, but the federal government wanted to count people who identify with the culture, but don't speak the language. See the youtube lecture on "Chicano English" (CE is not the same as Spanglish). It refers to people who are speaking English but with inflections that are clearly from Spanish.

I see Trump is blaming the media for what he said
WTF
Blame the media? why?
Everybody can see this for themselves.
You don't need media, just need the internet.
Last century, media wagged the dog
This century, the internet via the people wag the media dog

Whats next, Trump will blame his falling numbers on youtube lol

Quote: terapined

I see Trump is blaming the media for what he said

Don't you know by now he's that kind of person?

But there are positive developments.

Remember the loose population group in the 80s known as "Reagan Democrats"? These were people who tended to favor the Democratic party, but who voted for Reagan in 80 and 84. Now we're seeing the rise of the Clinton Republicans.

Of sorts. Reagan was highly charismatic and excelled at holding people's attention (he told great jokes, too). People liked him personally even if they were opposed to his policies. Clinton is not that personable a politician. So this new demographic is more like, in a social media era twist, "#NeverTrump Republicans." I figure the larger parts of this group won't vote at all. Next is the subgroup that will vote for Clinton. And smallest will be the part that votes for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein.

Largely this is not an organized faction of the population. But you have prominent Republicans publicly stating they'll vote for Johnson or Clinton, GOP candidates for other offices staying the hell away from Trump, and even some small groups of Republicans campaigning informally for Clinton.


Current polling trends show Trump will likely get a smaller share of the African-American vote than Romney or McCain. This would be remarkable, since the latter two ran against an African-American candidate. Ponder that.

Arizona has gone GOP for decades and decades, except in 1996. Romney and McCain won it with about 9 percentage points (that's huge). Currently Trump leads, but only by 1 or 2 points. Gee, perhaps because of the many Hispanics living there? He's still likely to win Arizona, but he'll have to defend it. This wastes resources better spent in battleground states like Florida and Ohio.

Such a magnificent waste, is it not? :)

Quote: terapined

I see Trump is blaming the media for what he said
WTF
Blame the media? why?
Everybody can see this for themselves.
You don't need media, just need the internet.
Last century, media wagged the dog
This century, the internet via the people wag the media dog

Whats next, Trump will blame his falling numbers on youtube lol

It's his typical strategy whenever he makes a big gaffe - "I didn't make a mistake! The media is dishonest!"

He's doomed in November.

Hopefully the Republican party goes down with him. And good riddance.