Are Men Avoiding Women

Quote: Wizard

That is the thrust of the movie Idiocracy, that looks at life in the year 2505, after many generations of the intelligent choosing to not reproduce. Great movie premise -- but just an average movie -- at best.

I think it's loosely based (ie ripped off) on Cyril Kornbluth's "The Marching Morons." It's an ok story, though one spun off that story universe, "The Little Black bag," is much better. TZ-level better.

I don't believe it is a conscious decision by the young people. I am totally blaming it in television and technology. Young people just don't socialize outside their immediate group of friends anymore. Yound people are no longer going to the bowling ally's, skating rinks, etc. where they will have contact with people they haven't met before. They all play video games at home and watch Netflix and Youtube.

Marriage rates have been steady for the last 6 years running at 6.8/1000. 40.8% of babies are being born outside of marriage. Birth rates in the USA have been steady at between 62 (now) and 70 births / 1000 between the ages of 15 to 44.

So the article is patently wrong. Birth rates and marriage rates drop during recessions and bad financial times. Society is changing, but sex is still happening and babies are being born, even as the norms are changing. This rule, "yes = yes" is fine. Men and women still want sex - the way it happens has changed. Pornography via explicit magazines, then videos, then the internet has been around for 60+ years.

And while it is true that there are more social outcasts out there, society will adjust. Women will change to allow more social outcasts into their lives. It doesn't mean that the human race is defeated - population is still skyrocketing.

Be hopeful.

The video I thought was more about trends of relationships in the new era due to radical feminism.

"Pornography via explicit magazines, then videos, then the internet has been around for 60+ years. ", the availability of porn in say the 70's, although on many magazine racks was nowhere near as available as is today on any smartphone.

"Census data cited in a 2014 study by the Pew Research Center show that the number of married households fell to 50.5 percent in 2012 from a high of about 72 percent in 1960."

Quote: boymimbo

And while it is true that there are more social outcasts out there, society will adjust. Women will change to allow more social outcasts into their lives. It doesn't mean that the human race is defeated - population is still skyrocketing.

Population is at zero growth in Europe, decline to soon happen. The birthrate is at zero growth for the USA, if not for immigration we would be at zero growth. Japan is in population decline. Mexico is leveling off. China has force the birthrate to sub-replacement for decades, only now relaxing rules.

By the late 21st century we will be seeing broad decline. The soon-to-come male pill may make that happen even faster.

Quote: Wizard

That is the thrust of the movie Idiocracy, that looks at life in the year 2505, after many generations of the intelligent choosing to not reproduce. Great movie premise -- but just an average movie -- at best.

As a former actuary, could you tell us your opinion on population decline and if you think it will just level out or fall as fast as it went up the last 200 years?

Quote: AZDuffman

As a former actuary, could you tell us your opinion on population decline and if you think it will just level out or fall as fast as it went up the last 200 years?

Thanks for asking. Nobody has ever asked me that before. The U.S. fertility rate is 1.9, so if not for immigration, we would you be in a slow population decline. We have been around 1.9 since the mid-seventies.

My opinion is that I have nothing against gradual population decline. It is a drag on the economy, because you will have a high ratio of retired people to young workers in their prime. However, there would be fewer people to divide the wealth among and plenty of employment.

The population in the third world continues to grow. Fresh water, and vaccination programs are lowering the infant mortality rate. I don't think the overall numbers are going to shrink. Expect relaxed immigration rules to bring in menial laborers, and future conflict as these groups clamor for full citizenship rights in their new homes.

Also, with same-sex marriage becoming the new normal, are the marriage records still going to be an accurate barometer of future population growth/decline?

Quote: Ayecarumba

The population in the third world continues to grow. Fresh water, and vaccination programs are lowering the infant mortality rate. I don't think the overall numbers are going to shrink. Expect relaxed immigration rules to bring in menial laborers, and future conflict as these groups clamor for full citizenship rights in their new homes.

There is a strong negative correlation between a countries wealth and the fertility rate. As poverty percentages drop worldwide, so will the fertility rate. At some point the world population will hit a maximum and then go into a state of decline. A good question is when and how big will it get.

Quote:

Also, with same-sex marriage becoming the new normal, are the marriage records still going to be an accurate barometer of future population growth/decline?

I believe that sexuality isn't a choice. Before same-sex marriage was legal, same-sex couples just lived together. I assume no change in the sexuality percentages so don't think the legality of same-sex marriage will play a roll in the world population.

Quote: Wizard

There is a strong negative correlation between a countries wealth and the fertility rate. As poverty percentages drop worldwide, so will the fertility rate. At some point the world population will hit a maximum and then go into a state of decline. A good question is when and how big will it get.

What is your opinion here? Slow and steady or parabolic down similar to up?