Terrible, horrible attack in Paris

Quote: terapined

Looks like the refugees are a lot more law abiding then about the 60k rapes a year committed by US citizens against US citizens
You point out 1 rape
I point out thousands
lol

No, you made up a number.

You do not even notice that there are probably 100K times as many US Citizens as refugees.

You will have to do better than that. I'm not some college professor.

~40,000 Muslim refugees entered the country in 2016.
~320,000 sexual assaults in the US in 2016

Population of the US is 320,000,000 => 1 assault for every 1,000 people in the US.

Assume, for sake of argument, on average one assaulter commits 10 crimes => 1 in every 10,000 people committed a sexual assault last year in the US.

=> You'd expect around 4 sex criminals in the 40,000 Muslims.

(If you think it's less than 10 reported crimes, on average per criminal, the number of expected assaulters in the refugee population would be higher).

In those 40,000, expect between 4-40 assualters, if they match the criminal record rate of the whole population.

(there's not 100k times the number of US Citizen to Muslim refugees, it's about 8,000 to 1).

I'm not a college professor either. I await the same outrage on the next reported rape on a bus by anyone from AZDuffman. It won't happen, as it's not about the victim, or the assault for him.

Quote: TheCesspit

I'm not a college professor either. I await the same outrage on the next reported rape on a bus by anyone from AZDuffman. It won't happen, as it's not about the victim, or the assault for him.

What it is "about" for me is pointing out what happens to people on the street as this refugee policy is carried out.

Elites who favor it usually live nowhere near where the refugees end up. It was the same with school bussing in the 1970s. Liberal elites favored sending kids to school based on race, not on neighborhood. To be more accurate, they favored sending OTHER PEOPLE'S KIDS to schools based on race not on location. Their kids were safe in upper class suburban schools, which did not become the war zones the working class kids went to.

Same thing today. Liberal elites scream "LET THEM IN!" But the elites go to their gated communities or neighborhoods way to expensive that they will deal with the fallout. You will not see Julia Louis Dreyfus getting raped on a bus because she will never ride on one except on film. But the poor working class folk do have to deal with it all. That is who I care about.

Quote: TheCesspit

~40,000 Muslim refugees entered the country in 2016.
~320,000 sexual assaults in the US in 2016

Population of the US is 320,000,000 => 1 assault for every 1,000 people in the US.

Assume, for sake of argument, on average one assaulter commits 10 crimes => 1 in every 10,000 people committed a sexual assault last year in the US.

=> You'd expect around 4 sex criminals in the 40,000 Muslims.

(If you think it's less than 10 reported crimes, on average per criminal, the number of expected assaulters in the refugee population would be higher).

In those 40,000, expect between 4-40 assualters, if they match the criminal record rate of the whole population.

(there's not 100k times the number of US Citizen to Muslim refugees, it's about 8,000 to 1).

I'm not a college professor either. I await the same outrage on the next reported rape on a bus by anyone from AZDuffman. It won't happen, as it's not about the victim, or the assault for him.

Excellent post Cess
Budweiser will be airing a pro-refugee ad during the super bowl
Hmm, I don't drink yet I have a yearning to pick up a 6-pack :-)

Quote: TheCesspit

~40,000 Muslim refugees entered the country in 2016.
~320,000 sexual assaults in the US in 2016

Population of the US is 320,000,000 => 1 assault for every 1,000 people in the US.

Assume, for sake of argument, on average one assaulter commits 10 crimes => 1 in every 10,000 people committed a sexual assault last year in the US.

=> You'd expect around 4 sex criminals in the 40,000 Muslims.

(If you think it's less than 10 reported crimes, on average per criminal, the number of expected assaulters in the refugee population would be higher).

In those 40,000, expect between 4-40 assualters, if they match the criminal record rate of the whole population.

(there's not 100k times the number of US Citizen to Muslim refugees, it's about 8,000 to 1).

I'm not a college professor either. I await the same outrage on the next reported rape on a bus by anyone from AZDuffman. It won't happen, as it's not about the victim, or the assault for him.

Not that it makes a hoot of difference to AZD or terapined but your numbers are flawed cesspit. Many of the 320,000 sexual assaults did not involve rape. Most sexual assaults involve people that know each other. The number of actual rapes by strangers in a public space would be less than 10% of your number likely much less.

Quote: kenarman

Not that it makes a hoot of difference to AZD or terapined but your numbers are flawed cesspit. Many of the 320,000 sexual assaults did not involve rape. Most sexual assaults involve people that know each other. The number of actual rapes by strangers in a public space would be less than 10% of your number likely much less.

I used sexual assaults mostly because rape numbers are different by state, whereas sexual assault is broad enough to cover the 'protect our women-folk'. I wanted to examine what the number of assaults we'd likely to see from a random group. Is it likely to be rare or not? Is one data point (and I'm sure there are others) seems low, but what rate should we see and when can we point to this group being several stand deviations from the norm.

I believe the sexual assault by strangers was around 15-20% when I was quickly trawling through numbers.

What I actually care more about is that sexual assaults are at this rate anyways, whether by strangers, friends or work colleagues. In fact, I'd say that's far more worrying statistic to the safety of Americans than refugees and immigration. I don't see anyone up in arms about that though.... there's enough people who think 'Grab 'em by the Pussy' is all fun and games.

Arguing to keep all immigrants and refugees out because some of them might commit crimes, is about as smart as arguing we should abort all fetuses because some of them might commit crimes.

Quote: Pacomartin

I don't think those comments are really helpful.

Perhaps not, but there are Trumpers here whose posts are 100% non-helpful, except to feed their Trump-love. I for one get a kick out of satirizing Trumper Islamophobic hysteria.

Quote: AZDuffman

I'm not some college professor.

At last, AZD says something that I'm 100% certain is factually accurate, even without a citation.

Quote: RonC

Of course they aren't. That is just the space that particular poster likes to occupy. He overstates just about everything to an almost laughable extreme. He advocates the death of "Trumpers" (whatever the hell they are). I thought he wasn't serious about actually wanting them dead, but he kind of insisted that he is.

You're a smart man, Ron, even though you're a conservative. Please don't tell me you don't understand that I was making fun of Trumper Islamophobia.

As far as actually wanting Trumpers dead, I do believe our society would be much, much better off if they all just disappeared. If they all died tomorrow, though, the stench would be awful. That's why I advocated for the Baffin Island solution. Polar bears aren't discriminating about what they eat.