Ukraine conflict

Good luck getting Russia to pay any reparations, other than giving Ukraine all the assets the west has seized from the kleptocrats who've robbed the Russian people since the USSR fell, led of course by the biggest thief of them all, Putin.

No wonder Trump admires him.

Quote: kenarman

The aid that Ukraine is receiving isn't even close to covering the billions in infrastructure they are losing. Airports, highways, bridges, housing .... It will take decades for Ukraine to recover even if they manage to hang onto parts of the country. This is a much higher cost than Russia is paying in military expenses. If they hang onto their sovereignty that can probably be considered a win but on any other metric it is a terrible loss to the country.

I am not disagreeing. But, the most important short term goal is maximizing damage to Russia.

Ukraine is already in terrible shape (that is a total understatement), there is not much more that can be done (are they going to be bomb the same bridge again)? -Yes technically there is some more damage that can be done, but in the grand scheme of things its virtually irrelevant- But, Ukraine causing this war to drag out can do more damage to Russia, which is good for us (and the world).

I said some time ago, Russia went so hard against Ukraine, they have no leverage, because the whole country is a warzone, and there is only so much more damage that can be done. But, Russia is untouched (physically), so there is a lot of damage against Russia that can be done. And, the longer this drags on the more economic damage will expand against Russia, and maybe eventually the potential for physical damage.

Think about it, Ukraine is at a standstill, women and children have been or are being removed. The infrastructure is destroyed. The economy is stopped. Right now Ukraine, is people in the military fighting, and that is about it. They don't care about repaving roads right now, they care about killing Russians. There is little more that Russia can do to them, but there is a lot that can be done against Russia.... Everyday civilians are leaving Ukraine, military people are staying (in some cases coming to join them). Russia is fighting an annexation war against another, what can they threaten Ukraine with at this point?

This is why it is good that they stay in the fight, not just for themselves, but for the world.

Right now the sanctions against Russia are sparse (as much as they complain about it), its basically making life a bit less glamour (luxury goods and convivences). Imagine if we get to the point of 1991 Iraq sanctions against Russia, cutoff all food and medicine from them (Russia produces very little of both). This could change the demographics in a matter of months (especially if we start in September as the winter preparations begin). Forget China (not worth trying to convince them), if France, Italy, UK, Germany, and the US (and probably more could be convinced, but lets go bare-bones example) stopped exporting food and medications to Russia, we could make things very traumatic, very fast without firing a round.

I don't think people realize how much power we have simply in food and medication supply over Russia. We can see how well this worked in Iraq during their invasion of Kuwait for a modern parallel, of the mass damage such true sanctions can cause. Medication alone, we could pretty much stop their supply overnight.... This is a power that people need to be aware of, because its massive, and its often overlooked in favor of traditional military interventions.

Quote: Gandler

I am not disagreeing. But, the most important short term goal is maximizing damage to Russia.

Ukraine is already in terrible shape (that is a total understatement), there is not much more that can be done (are they going to be bomb the same bridge again)? -Yes technically there is some more damage that can be done, but in the grand scheme of things its virtually irrelevant- But, Ukraine causing this war to drag out can do more damage to Russia, which is good for us (and the world).

I said some time ago, Russia went so hard against Ukraine, they have no leverage, because the whole country is a warzone, and there is only so much more damage that can be done. But, Russia is untouched (physically), so there is a lot of damage against Russia that can be done. And, the longer this drags on the more economic damage will expand against Russia, and maybe eventually the potential for physical damage.

Think about it, Ukraine is at a standstill, women and children have been or are being removed. The infrastructure is destroyed. The economy is stopped. Right now Ukraine, is people in the military fighting, and that is about it. They don't care about repaving roads right now, they care about killing Russians. There is little more that Russia can do to them, but there is a lot that can be done against Russia.... Everyday civilians are leaving Ukraine, military people are staying (in some cases coming to join them). Russia is fighting an annexation war against another, what can they threaten Ukraine with at this point?

This is why it is good that they stay in the fight, not just for themselves, but for the world.

Right now the sanctions against Russia are sparse (as much as they complain about it), its basically making life a bit less glamour (luxury goods and convivences). Imagine if we get to the point of 1991 Iraq sanctions against Russia, cutoff all food and medicine from them (Russia produces very little of both). This could change the demographics in a matter of months (especially if we start in September as the winter preparations begin). Forget China (not worth trying to convince them), if France, Italy, UK, Germany, and the US (and probably more could be convinced, but lets go bare-bones example) stopped exporting food and medications to Russia, we could make things very traumatic, very fast without firing a round.

I don't think people realize how much power we have simply in food and medication supply over Russia. We can see how well this worked in Iraq during their invasion of Kuwait for a modern parallel, of the mass damage such true sanctions can cause. Medication alone, we could pretty much stop their supply overnight.... This is a power that people need to be aware of, because its massive, and its often overlooked in favor of traditional military interventions.

What a bunch of hogwash. Many of 'our' drugs are manufactured in China. China will still supply Russia and possibly cut off the West

Quote: kenarman

What a bunch of hogwash. Many of 'our' drugs are manufactured in China. China will still supply Russia and possibly cut off the West

Firstly that is not true (not if you are speaking of drugs that we actually use at home).

Secondly, there is a difference between manufacturing and owning a patent to a drug and owning facilities to research drugs.

But, back to the first point the U.S. manufactures more drugs than any other country. We manufacture something like 30% of the drugs (for the world, not just what we use domestically). China is close to 10% globally. Even India manufactures more drugs than China (I am pretty sure Italy manufactures more drugs than China).... China is not a drug superpower. You have been reading too much pro-China propaganda. And, drugs that they manufacture that were researched and developed by them, no....

And, even of the drugs that do manufacture, they control very few of the patents. Controlling the patent means controlling where production is allowed. Of course, China makes a business (not just in drugs, more so in other areas) out of not respecting international intellectual property rights, which is why the first point really matters.

The U.S., the U.K., and Switzerland own pretty much every drug patent that matters.

Which goes back to the U.S. and the U.K. can ban drugs in any given country and pretty much destroy their healthcare industry.


-Edit and most of China's drug production, and almost all of their exports are over-the-counter stuff, think ibuprofen and generic supplements not high end prescription required drugs. China is simply not a drug producing superpower. The U.S. and U.K. dominate the globe-

Quote: Gandler

Firstly that is not true (not if you are speaking of drugs that we actually use at home).

Secondly, there is a difference between manufacturing and owning a patent to a drug and owning facilities to research drugs.

But, back to the first point the U.S. manufactures more drugs than any other country. We manufacture something like 30% of the drugs (for the world, not just what we use domestically). China is close to 10% globally. Even India manufactures more drugs than China (I am pretty sure Italy manufactures more drugs than China).... China is not a drug superpower. You have been reading too much pro-China propaganda. And, drugs that they manufacture that were researched and developed by them, no....

And, even of the drugs that do manufacture, they control very few of the patents. Controlling the patent means controlling where production is allowed. Of course, China makes a business (not just in drugs, more so in other areas) out of not respecting international intellectual property rights, which is why the first point really matters.

The U.S., the U.K., and Switzerland own pretty much every drug patent that matters.

Which goes back to the U.S. and the U.K. can ban drugs in any given country and pretty much destroy their healthcare industry.


-Edit and most of China's drug production, and almost all of their exports are over-the-counter stuff, think ibuprofen and generic supplements not high end prescription required drugs. China is simply not a drug producing superpower. The U.S. and U.K. dominate the globe-

"This is particularly true for manufacturers of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), the actual drugs that are then formulated into tablets, capsules, injections, etc. As of August 2019, only 28 percent of the manufacturing facilities making APIs to supply the U.S. market were in our country. By contrast, the remaining 72 percent of the API manufacturers supplying the U.S. market were overseas, and 13 percent are in China. "

The quote is from Dr. Janet Woodcock, Director of the Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) at the Food and Drug Administration speaking to congress. Do you really think that China and Russia will care about patents in a war?

Quote: kenarman

"This is particularly true for manufacturers of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), the actual drugs that are then formulated into tablets, capsules, injections, etc. As of August 2019, only 28 percent of the manufacturing facilities making APIs to supply the U.S. market were in our country. By contrast, the remaining 72 percent of the API manufacturers supplying the U.S. market were overseas, and 13 percent are in China. "

The quote is from Dr. Janet Woodcock, Director of the Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) at the Food and Drug Administration speaking to congress. Do you really think that China and Russia will care about patents in a war?

So pretty much exactly what I just said? 28% (I said around 30) and 13% (I said around 10), that was pretty much spot on....

China does not care about foreign patents now so I doubt that will change. But, they cannot prop up Russia by themselves. 28% is the single largest manufacturer by a large amount, add in UK and we are close to the majority (plus the EU countries).


China is Russia's biggest trade partner, so even if they ride or die (which is not a guarantee, even China seems to be alarmed by some Russian activity), and Belaruse sticks with them (which they will until they can be replaced, they are basically a Russia puppet), the EU, U.S., and U.S. can still destroy Russia's food and medication imports. Germany is number one and the U.S. is number two for medical imports into Russia (and then Italy is three).
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1127386/pharmaceutical-imports-to-russia-by-country/#:~:text=Russia%20imported%20the%20highest%20value,Russia%20was%20the%20United%20States.

China is not even in the top ten. The idea that China supplies Russia with drugs is just not true. Its basically us and the EU. Germany specifically holds the cards, they are a top tier, almost double us (and we vastly outrank everyone else). So Germany and the U.S. could cutoff medication and cause massive damage.

China is their biggest trade partner, but not for medical...

Again this is power that we have, and people know we have, but it was so blasted in the 90s against Iraq people are hesitant to even bring it up.... We have all of the cards when it comes to medication (even if you assume they will ignore patents, they simply do not have the facilities to produce if quickly cut off). Plus food. Russia imports a lot of food They produce some food, but rely on imports.


This was written after the Crimea sanctions:
https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1211&context=honors#:~:text=Presently%2C%20Russia%20cannot%20sustain%20itself,due%20to%20the%20food%20ban.

There is limited food available in Russia, it relies on foreign imports. Even with just China and Belaruse, its not enough.

Quote: Gandler

So pretty much exactly what I just said? 28% (I said around 30) and 13% (I said around 10), that was pretty much spot on....

China does not care about foreign patents now so I doubt that will change. But, they cannot prop up Russia by themselves. 28% is the single largest manufacturer by a large amount, add in UK and we are close to the majority (plus the EU countries).


China is Russia's biggest trade partner, so even if they ride or die (which is not a guarantee, even China seems to be alarmed by some Russian activity), and Belaruse sticks with them (which they will until they can be replaced, they are basically a Russia puppet), the EU, U.S., and U.S. can still destroy Russia's food and medication imports. Germany is number one and the U.S. is number two for medical imports into Russia (and then Italy is three).
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1127386/pharmaceutical-imports-to-russia-by-country/#:~:text=Russia%20imported%20the%20highest%20value,Russia%20was%20the%20United%20States.

China is not even in the top ten. The idea that China supplies Russia with drugs is just not true. Its basically us and the EU. Germany specifically holds the cards, they are a top tier, almost double us (and we vastly outrank everyone else). So Germany and the U.S. could cutoff medication and cause massive damage.

China is their biggest trade partner, but not for medical...

Again this is power that we have, and people know we have, but it was so blasted in the 90s against Iraq people are hesitant to even bring it up.... We have all of the cards when it comes to medication (even if you assume they will ignore patents, they simply do not have the facilities to produce if quickly cut off). Plus food. Russia imports a lot of food They produce some food, but rely on imports.


This was written after the Crimea sanctions:
https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1211&context=honors#:~:text=Presently%2C%20Russia%20cannot%20sustain%20itself,due%20to%20the%20food%20ban.

There is limited food available in Russia, it relies on foreign imports. Even with just China and Belaruse, its not enough.

Read the quote more carefully. The 28% is what the US makes for the US market as is the 13% by China. It doesn't say what China is supplying to the world market or more pertinent for your premise what it is currently supplying to Russia.

Quote: kenarman

Read the quote more carefully. The 28% is what the US makes for the US market as is the 13% by China. It doesn't say what China is supplying to the world market or more pertinent for your premise what it is currently supplying to Russia.

I know what the quote says. Globally the numbers are similiar.

What does that change on Chinas exports of medications to Ruasia?

Again, Europe and U.S. owns the medication supply to Russia....

My citations (first link) answers your concern of who supplies Russia....

EU and U.S. can easily cutoff medication and food supply to Russia....

This should not even be a controversial statement, its simple....

Quote: Gandler

I know what the quote says. Globally the numbers are similiar.

What does that change on Chinas exports of medications to Ruasia?

Again, Europe and U.S. owns the medication supply to Russia....

My citations (first link) answers your concern of who supplies Russia....

EU and U.S. can easily cutoff medication and food supply to Russia....

This should not even be a controversial statement, its simple....

Why do you think we could starve Russia into submission? Russia is the largest exporter of wheat in the world.

Quote: kenarman

Why do you think we could starve Russia into submission? Russia is the largest exporter of wheat in the world.

You are hyper focusing on a specific product. Net food, they are dependent. I even cited a pro-Russian paper to show this (and some of their ideas for the Crimea Sanctions). They need food and medication from other countries. Food there is some options (as the paper discusses). Medication, there are very limited options outside of the EU and US.

Russia's economy is based around energy (mostly oil and gas), so EU working to cut off imports of Russian oil and gas is probably the most important thing. Because without their energy they have nothing.

The US needs to focus on nuclear power and franking, for quick results. We are close, but doing a few things wrong. We have the ability to become easily energy independent if the will is there.