Republican Nominee 2024

Quote: Mission146

What kind of odds would I have to lay against that happening? I want to clarify that it MUST be June-October, 2024 (I gave you a few months)---not before. Joe Biden's death also completely cancels the bet.

I think that's an extreme long shot. You can't just hand the presidency to her. The first thing that would have to happen is that Biden would have to announce that he will not seek the Democratic Nomination. The second thing that would have to happen is either:

A. He gets the Democratic Party on board with this plan and they all but agree not to have a nomination process/handle it at convention.

OR:

B. Kamala Harris, as the VP, runs for the Democratic Nomination and wins. I guess it's theoretically possible that she could run unchallenged, but I doubt it. If she's challenged, then I imagine she would lose. Nothing really wrong with Kamala, in my view, but she finished in what---87th place last time?

I don't want to make a bet that doesn't resolve for four years, as I often forget these type bets I make in a week or so.... But I would bet REAL money that if Biden does not seek a second term that Kamala will be the Democrat nominee.

Her pathetic showing in the primaries will be LONG forgotten after 3+ years of doing Vice President stuff. And she will still be a 'woman of color'. The Democrats bypassing her for another old white guy would lead to protests that make those we are seeing today and from the BLM days look like 'parties'.

Quote: rxwine

Although I doubt it will happen, imagine if Pence wants to run in 2024, but for President, not as sidekick to Trump. And Trump also wants to run.

Too socially conservative. Great person for the Republicans to nominate if they want to guarantee a loss. I've seen more animated pieces of lumber, also.

Quote: SOOPOO

I don't want to make a bet that doesn't resolve for four years, as I often forget these type bets I make in a week or so.... But I would bet REAL money that if Biden does not seek a second term that Kamala will be the Democrat nominee.

Her pathetic showing in the primaries will be LONG forgotten after 3+ years of doing Vice President stuff. And she will still be a 'woman of color'. The Democrats bypassing her for another old white guy would lead to protests that make those we are seeing today and from the BLM days look like 'parties'.

REAL money might be too rich for my blood. I might be willing to wager a reasonably small sum as I generally try to avoid betting on guesses. You'll definitely get bigger $$$ action elsewhere, if that's what you're looking for.

I don't think it will be an, "Old white guy," that would win, but I could name four people from the previous field that I think would beat her if they were to run again. I think either Buttigieg or Warren would be the most likely...but I don't know that I could put odds on it. Perhaps Warren will be too old.

Quote: Mission146

REAL money might be too rich for my blood. I might be willing to wager a reasonably small sum as I generally try to avoid betting on guesses. You'll definitely get bigger $$$ action elsewhere, if that's what you're looking for.

I don't think it will be an, "Old white guy," that would win, but I could name four people from the previous field that I think would beat her if they were to run again. I think either Buttigieg or Warren would be the most likely...but I don't know that I could put odds on it. Perhaps Warren will be too old.

If I don't already owe you something from an old bet, let's bet lunch or dinner. I win if Kamala is Democrat nominee in 2024. You win if it is anyone other than Biden or Harris. If Biden runs again no bet. If Kamala dies before 2024 no bet.

Quote: SOOPOO

If I don't already owe you something from an old bet, let's bet lunch or dinner. I win if Kamala is Democrat nominee in 2024. You win if it is anyone other than Biden or Harris. If Biden runs again no bet. If Kamala dies before 2024 no bet.

Sounds good to me. Loser has to go to the winner's city. If Kamala's death (and let's hope she doesn't die in that time) cancels the bet, then I also want Biden's death to cancel the bet. I think Harris winning AFTER serving the remainder of this term would be more likely, especially if Biden were to kick off fairly early into it.

Quote: Mission146

Sounds good to me. Loser has to go to the winner's city. If Kamala's death (and let's hope she doesn't die in that time) cancels the bet, then I also want Biden's death to cancel the bet. I think Harris winning AFTER serving the remainder of this term would be more likely, especially if Biden were to kick off fairly early into it.

deal. As with all of my bets, I will not remember it. You seem very organized so its up to you!

Quote: SOOPOO

deal. As with all of my bets, I will not remember it. You seem very organized so its up to you!

Oh, crap. I'm the least organized person to ever live. Bad read. lol

Quote: Mission146

What kind of odds would I have to lay against that happening? I want to clarify that it MUST be June-October, 2024 (I gave you a few months)---not before. Joe Biden's death also completely cancels the bet.

I think that's an extreme long shot. You can't just hand the presidency to her. The first thing that would have to happen is that Biden would have to announce that he will not seek the Democratic Nomination. The second thing that would have to happen is either:

A. He gets the Democratic Party on board with this plan and they all but agree not to have a nomination process/handle it at convention.

All Biden has to do is say his health has declined to the point he needs to step down. He can do it at any time, and because of his age, people may doubt it, but they can't force him to prove it. (I don't believe they can anyway)

edit - that is, because of his age, it's an entirely probable scenario.

Quote: rxwine

All Biden has to do is say his health has declined to the point he needs to step down. He can do it at any time, and because of his age, people may doubt it, but they can't force him to prove it. (I don't believe they can anyway)

edit - that is, because of his age, it's an entirely probable scenario.

Probable? So...what kind of odds will you lay for me to take?

Quote: Mission146

You wouldn't mean white, male, Evangelical Christian conservatives mainly from rural areas, (such as in the South) would you?

Yes. (Though where I am from in NJ is very much Trump country as well.... very conservative....) GA is blue now, things are changing.

Quote: Mission146

Do you know what I learned today? I learned that Raphael Warnock is the first black Senator from a former Confederate state. In 2020. I guess that's technically progress.

I did not know that, but its not a huge surprise, there are only two senators for each state, and election only every 6 years, so slow change does not surprise me in the Senate (especially when 1 person often stays in the seat for so long).

Personally I do not care about race, I care about who will best succeed for the goals I want for America. I voted for Warnock (in the runoff) because he is a solid candidate and lives in the same city that I do (he can be a bit too religious, but what can you do....). I also liked his endorsement from President Obama.

But, I am not going to lie, I did not vote for him in the initial election (I voted for a different Democrat, who I honestly cannot remember, I usually compare their websites and see which one has the most policies that I agree with and make a note to vote for them, at the time the Senate race was not as crucial so it did not stand out in my mind), just the runoff.
But, when it comes down to just one D and one R, well he gets my vote for sure (especially over the insane opponent who was appointed, not even elected, to her seat and is the richest person in congress....).

Quote: Mission146

You should really get the hell out of there and head up here to civilization. It doesn't have to be Jersey again...the property taxes are ridiculous, for one thing. Come on up and move to Pittsburgh, we can hang out.

I love GA. I know you hate the South for personal reasons which is fine.

I will move again at some point, but it probably will still be in what you consider "the South" (Texas, Florida, or Nevada would be my three prime areas of interest at least as far as in the country, Nevada may be the one location that is not "South").

But, I just got a new job that I love in a very small city in GA, so it will not be anytime in the immediate future. (I am also not a cold person, and especially not a snow person, another reason I love the South).

I think that your perception of the south is based on rural areas. Urban areas in the south are pretty much identical to urban areas in the north.
I am sure Pittsburg is a great city, but I just cannot see myself living there. I'd love to visit there sometime though, I am sure it is a great place and lots to do, I love to travel (when things are more normal).

But, honestly, I do not focus on the North/South divide to me, its just America and I happen to live in a State that is in the Southern reason, if anything I break things down state by state (and eventually city by city) to see where I would like living and what is offered etc....

Quote: Mission146

We've known for weeks that he was not planning to attend the Inauguration ceremony. Part of the entire Trump brand (even pre-Presidency) is an inability to admit failures, didn't you know? So what if he announces during the Inauguration? Who cares?



He's not going to call Biden. Not today, not tomorrow, not ever. There is no chance that he will admit to losing, absent some sort of caveat to the effect of being cheated out of it.

That is all true, but it is still worth pointing out how insane and unprecedented it is. (especially because almost all of the right here operate under the assumption that it is normal behavior).