Presidential Election 2020 Biden vs. Trump

Quote: Wizard

I doubt I will. My policy is to not hedge unless the hedge bet is zero or positive EV. Another exception is if there are life changing amounts of money involved, which there never are for me.

In this case, it's not easy to quantify the probability of Trump winning. I think the betting market is looking the election too analytically. At the end of the day, people vote with their heart and their gut, not their brains. That will cut Trump's way.

So then if you got Biden say +120 that would be something you would take? Curious what you consider a hedge and what acceptable.

I think Biden did GREAT last night. His speech was well written, and had a good mixture of telling us why you should vote for Biden and why we should not vote for Trump. It seemed heartfelt and honest. There was no time I felt he was exhibiting the cognitive decline I have seen in his unprepared comments. If he can perform even close to that well in the debates I think he will soar to victory. I'm not sure he can do it without the writers and rehearsals that must have gone on for the speech last night. We will see.

Quote: SOOPOO

I If he can perform even close to that well in the debates I think he will soar to victory.

LOOLOL!! He won't and even f he could,
he won't win. He has no platform,
never mentioned China or the
rioting in big cities once. His whole
message is Trump bad, Sleepy Joe
good. He has no fan base, no enthusiasm
is there for him. He's a tired, sad
demented old man who has no
accomplishments to point to in
47 years of elected office.

His speech was wooden and
rehearsed to the point he could
have read and delivered it
drunk if need be. He looked like
a rubber band about to snap.
He looked uncomfortable. He
looked stiff. He looked nervous,
Not somebody with 47 years of
giving speeches under his belt.

How many times did they make
him stand behind a podium in
the last two weeks and rehearse?
4 hours a day at least. Watch
it again and ask yourself if this
is a guy who isn't scared to
death he might screw up. The
debates are a totally different
format and you better believe
Trump is working on how to
screw with Biden at every turn.
if this guy doesn't look

Quote: AZDuffman

So then if you got Biden say +120 that would be something you would take? Curious what you consider a hedge and what acceptable.

If somebody offered me that, I'd take it, because I'd view it as a positive EV hedge.

Quote: Evenbob

LOOLOL!! He won't and even f he could,
he won't win. He has no platform,
never mentioned China or the
rioting in big cities once. His whole
message is Trump bad, Sleepy Joe
good. He has no fan base, no enthusiasm
is there for him. He's a tired, sad
demented old man who has no
accomplishments to point to in
47 years of elected office.

His speech was wooden and
rehearsed to the point he could
have read and delivered it
drunk if need be. He looked like
a rubber band about to snap.
He looked uncomfortable. He
looked stiff. He looked nervous,
Not somebody with 47 years of
giving speeches under his belt.

How many times did they make
him stand behind a podium in
the last two weeks and rehearse?
4 hours a day at least. Watch
it again and ask yourself if this
is a guy who isn't scared to
death he might screw up. The
debates are a totally different
format and you better believe
Trump is working on how to
screw with Biden at every turn.
if this guy doesn't look

This overlong post reeks of 2012-EB when he would go on and on about how Romney was a lock.

I'm really starting to look forward to the Republican convention. I was trying to imagine Trump's biographical reel? Will they even have one? If so, it should be shamtastic!

How he grew up with millions of dollars from his father, and helped oversee inflated rents and discriminating against black people in renting.
How he gave back to his country, with multiple deferments from bone spurs.
Paying others to take his tests in college
How he had painful losses in his life like Joe Biden, losing 3 wives to divorce.
His amazing bankruptcies.'
His Oprah inspired University ending in a fraud charge.
His fraudulent charity.
His impeachment.

I may especially enjoy people trying to give him Biden-like, what a great person he is personally info. Watch Pence try to stumble through, "well sometimes Donald let's me talk or stay in the office" to say something nice.

Hopefully, someone in his team suggested he start secretly make donations and secret visits to a crippled orphans home.

Quote: rxwine

I'm really starting to look forward to the Republican convention. I was trying to imagine Trump's biographical reel? Will they even have one? If so, it should be shamtastic!

How he grew up with millions of dollars from his father, and helped oversee inflated rents and discriminating against black people in renting.
How he gave back to his country, with multiple deferments from bone spurs.
Paying others to take his tests in college
How he had painful losses in his life like Joe Biden, losing 3 wives to divorce.
His amazing bankruptcies.'
His Oprah inspired University ending in a fraud charge.
His fraudulent charity.
His impeachment.

I may especially enjoy people trying to give him Biden-like, what a great person he is personally info. Watch Pence try to stumble through, "well sometimes Donald let's me talk or stay in the office" to say something nice.

Hopefully, someone in his team suggested he start secretly make donations and secret visits to a crippled orphans home.

The DNC didn't show Biden's highlight reel showing:

His friendship with Robert Byrd
Hi anti-school-busing stance
47 years in the Swamp and now claiming he can fix the Swamp
His plagiarism which caused him to drop out of the 1988 Presidential race
Sniffing the hair/inappropriately touching girls and women
"Just as smart as white kids"
"If the prosecutor is not fired, you're not getting the money"
Biden unmasking Flynn
"Predators on our streets" who were " beyond the pale"
Etc.
Etc.
Etc.

Trouble is, practically anything Biden is accused of, Trump has about 10x the problems with.

As far as I know, Biden has only gotten to the point of being investigated for anything only once in his whole career.

Quote: rxwine

Trouble is, practically anything Biden is accused of, Trump has about 10x the problems with.

As far as I know, Biden has only gotten to the point of being investigated for anything only once in his whole career.

OK - Take each issue I brought up about Biden and show me the evidence for each issue listed demonstrating Trump has "10x the problems with"

I'll wait...

Quote: rxwine

Trouble is, practically anything Biden is accused of, Trump has about 10x the problems with.

As far as I know, Biden has only gotten to the point of being investigated for anything only once in his whole career.

Quote: aceofspades

OK - Take each issue I brought up about Biden and show me the evidence for each issue listed demonstrating Trump has "10x the problems with"

I'll wait...

“My candidate is less of a dumpster fire than yours.”-Democrats

“My candidate is less of a dumpster fire than yours.”-Republicans

“My candidate would actually be a pretty good POTUS.”-Libertarians