The Coronavirus thread

Quote: SOOPOO

But for this coronavirus disease we are ruining countless MILLIONS of lives by the economic devastation shutting down a significant part of the country entails. Some small businesses will never recover. Some individuals who thought they were doing ok are now in financial ruin.

The most ridiculous pigheaded thing
we have ever done. Treating a flu
that has 95% it's victims as the elderly,
people are reacting to it like it's
Captain Trips, the disease in The Stand,
where getting it is a death sentence.
Hard to believe we're this stupid in
2020.

Quote: rxwine

Probably creepy, but I matched the world wide death total to see what city it matched. The entire population of Nazareth Pennsylvania as of last night would be dead.

Actual death counts from COVID-19 are very low, but the concern is "potential deaths"



On September 28, 1918, despite the increased infiltration of the disease among the civilian population, a rally for the Fourth Liberty Loan Drive proceeded with minimal debate about the repercussions for public health.” The head of Philadelphia’s Naval Hospital told the Public Ledger in the days before the parade: “There is no cause for further alarm. We believe we have it well in hand.” So, the parade went forward. “In the streets of downtown Philadelphia 200,000 people gathered to celebrate an impending allied victory in World War I. Within a week of the rally an estimated 45,000 Philadelphians were afflicted with influenza.”


While 116,708 American military deaths were counted in the entire WWI, Philadelphians lost 11,000 civilians in the month of October and the nation lost 195,000 in that month alone. Congress declared war with Germany on April 6, 1917 and the War ended on 11 November 1918

Woodrow Wilson left for France on December 14, 1918 and returned for a brief 9 days over the next 9 months (ending July 8.1919). October 2, 1919, he suffered a stroke. So it is fair to say the epidemic was not high on his list of concerns.

Quote: rxwine

Can a business buy insurance against such events? Or some kind of financial protection? If so, if someone wants to save money by skipping insurance, who is to blame?

I don't know. However if you have the option, for instance, to buy fire insurance, and don't, that's usually your fault. Seems like it could be the same for acts of god or whatever this is.

Such insurance is going to be rare and really, you cannot insure against every possible thing. This would require some kind of "business interruption" insurance and the government telling you to shut down would probably be excluded from coverage.

The business world is nowhere as easy as you make it out to be.

So if we accept we'll have a worse scenario than South Korea, can we expect we'll do better than Italy? That country's experience has tons to do with the extremes the US is taking now. 


Of course all these places do not have their final figures. Currently it looks like Italy will be announcing new cases in the thousands every day? They just announced @3600 for one day but do we know if that is just an announcement logjam effect? In any case, out of a pop. of about 60 million they are at about 25k now and growing. I'll speculate that surely they'll approach 100k before it's over and likely more. 


100k would mean 1 in 600 of the pop. get tested positive, and I think it may be a country that reaches something quite a bit worse than that 1 in 500 of the pop. that perhaps is something to be wished for here and there. Or perhaps we will find in the end that 3600 announced today is not to be expected daily and the 25k confirmed only reaches 50k or 75k. That would be good news for us I think. 


https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/public-global-health/487667-italy-reports-3590-more-coronavirus-cases-its-biggest

Quote:

Two emergency medicine doctors, in New Jersey and Washington State, are in critical condition as a result of coronavirus

One is 40. They don't say how old the other is.

Quote: AZDuffman

Such insurance is going to be rare and really, you cannot insure against every possible thing. This would require some kind of "business interruption" insurance and the government telling you to shut down would probably be excluded from coverage.

The business world is nowhere as easy as you make it out to be.

If it's too hard for you, stay out.

Quote: SOOPOO

That the flu, which is largely (mostly?) preventable by just getting a shot kills 100 people a day in this country during a bad season like this one. Yet flu shots are optional, not mandatory. But for this coronavirus disease we are ruining countless MILLIONS of lives by the economic devastation shutting down a significant part of the country entails. Some small businesses will never recover. Some individuals who thought they were doing ok are now in financial ruin. The deficit will EXPLODE! 39,000 people died in car accidents last year in the US.

I am not saying to ignore the threat of COVID-19 infection. My harping on other causes of death is just to bring perspective. Around HALF A MILLION people die each year from cigarette related causes. Of course an estimate, but 40,000 will die as a result of SECOND HAND SMOKE!

It's hard to reconcile a total (projected, hypothetical) low death number like this with the total bedlam in the health care system in Italy. Italy has currently had 1,809 deaths as per Worldometer (side note I have been sourcing this website frequently, I hope it's somewhat accurate).

2000 deaths, as you note, is a akin to a rounding error on deaths from all causes. But the widespread crowding and suffering in the hospitals and the ICUs is a different data point, a more subjective one than "X lost their lives."

Of course, the virus is still ravaging Italy, so we'll see how many they end up when it's all said and done. I'm not optimistic that our total numbers (per capita) will be any better than Italy based on the slowness with which we implemented social distancing and the people who are still not taking it seriously. I'd be shocked if the US escapes this pandemic with less than 10k deaths.

As of Friday, South Korea had tested 250,000 people, and the United States had only completed 20,000 about tests.

For reasons that remain unknown, the U.S. did not rely on the World Health Organization’s coronavirus test in the earliest days of the outbreak. Instead, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention set out to make its own. But the CDC’s test didn’t always work.

Trump/Pence's inability to find a bureaucrat to fix this testing problem is very very troubling. I'm still operating under the assumption that this is just incompetence. But how much longer will that explanation be plausible? Is there a more sinister explanation? If the US is incapable of fixing this, why haven't we outsourced this to another country yet?

Quote: AZDuffman

Here is one for you Padre. My brother just attended a Baptism with NO WATER. I would think they could just boil some water and then bless it. There has to be some Holy Water in storage in the sacristy (term for where the Priests and others wait before Mass and they store various sacramental items.) I do not remember everything from my Alatar Boy days, but I am sure they kept some in storage both to put out and in their "travel bag" to see bedridden parishoners.

But no water at all in a Baptism?

This seems impossible to me. Water is required for a Catholic baptism or it is not valid. I continue to be puzzled and alarmed. I am racking my brain to find some way to help especially our young people during this time not to spend all their time on video games but to study, pray, exercise, and be virtuous.

Wizard, please tell your mother-in-law that she made the right decision and that the obligation for Sunday Mass has been lifted for Catholics during this time. In fact where I am there are no public Masses right now.

Quote: Wizard

Here is my prediction: 2,000 to 3,000 American casualties. That's about as many Americans who die of all causes in 10 to 12 hours.

In 2019 47,173 Americans died by suicide (129 per day).


Perhaps if 50 million people have their income affected, we may end up with more additional suicide deaths than coronavirus deaths.