The Coronavirus thread

Quote: JimRockford

I think deficits matter.

I’m aware of that BS new monetary theory to justify excess spending. Deficits do matter. Especially when you have no way to ever pay for them.

Excess spending inflates the money supply, devalues the currency, increases the costs of goods and services, and creates bubbles.

Year to date, the U.S. dollar has lost over 8 percent of its value versus other major world currencies. For the first time since 2013, more transactions were conducted in euros than U.S. dollars. China’s RMB will challenge the dollar as well.

That graph you provided is for tax revenues as a percentage of GDP. Not a graph of total annual tax revenues. When GDP is inflated by excess government spending, tax revenue as a percent of GDP will fall. Tax revenues increased following the tax cut in 2017. Tax receipts for 2019 were $156 billion higher than they were in 2017. Tax receipts in 2019 increased nearly 4.05% over 2018, when the previous record was set. In prior years they improved by less than 1%.

Quote: Tanko

I’m aware of that BS new monetary theory to justify excess spending. Deficits do matter. Especially when you have no way to ever pay for them.

Excess spending inflates the money supply, devalues the currency, increases the costs of goods and services, and creates bubbles.

The monetary system has been reset 3 times since 1913. It will eventually be reset again. The debt will be inflated away, never repaid. LBJ sent us down this path and now too many people are too hooked on the feds to change things.

Hard to say where it will end up. Bitcoin is up 10% this week, so people are looking for alternatives to the USD.

Quote: Tanko

That graph you provided is for tax revenues as a percentage of GDP. Not a graph of total annual tax revenues. When GDP is inflated by excess government spending, tax revenue as a percent of GDP will fall. Tax revenues increased following the tax cut in 2017. Tax receipts for 2019 were $156 billion higher than they were in 2017. Tax receipts in 2019 increased nearly 4.05% over 2018, when the previous record was set. In prior years they improved by less than 1%.

If I didn't know better I would think you are making a case that the Trump economy was artificially pumped up by "excess government spending".

Expressing revenue and spending as a percentage of GDP seems reasonable to me. If tax policy does not change, revenue is expected to scale with GDP. The question should be; is revenue higher or lower than it would have been without the tax cuts? Real revenue adjusted for inflation decreased in 2018 then rebounded in 2019 but not in proportion to the growth of the economy.
https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/federal-receipt-and-outlay-summary

Edit: btw, receipts in 2019 were 3.464 trillion. About 1% higher than 2018.

Quote: JimRockford

If I didn't know better I would think you are making a case that the Trump economy was artificially pumped up by "excess government spending".

No.

GDP is not ‘The Economy’.

Government spending as a percent of GDP hasn’t changed much over the past thirty years, but in recent years, a larger percent of that spending is deficit spending, which has grown to 4.6% of GDP.

Quote: JimRockford

Edit: btw, receipts in 2019 were 3.464 trillion. About 1% higher than 2018.

In 2012 dollars, yes. In 1912 dollars, down 96%. But in 2018 dollars, tax revenues increased by 3.94% in 2019. Adjusted for inflation, tax revenues were down in each of the previous three years.

Covid now the leading cause of death in the USA as it is surpassing heart disease and cancer

Quote: Tanko

No.

GDP is not ‘The Economy’.

I was just being a smart ass.

Quote: Tamko

In 2012 dollars, yes. In 1912 dollars, down 96%. But in 2018 dollars, tax revenues increased by 3.94% in 2019. Adjusted for inflation, tax revenues were down in each of the previous three years.

From thee link I provided in my last post.
https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/federal-receipt-and-outlay-summary

Receipts In 2019 dollars (Billion):
2018------3,329.9
2019------3,464.2

1.04%

Quote: terapined

Covid now the leading cause of death in the USA as it is surpassing heart disease and cancer

Not sure where you get that BS from TP but this is from the CDC site for 2018.

"Number of deaths for leading causes of death:
Heart disease: 655,381
Cancer: 599,274"

Quote: kenarman

Not sure where you get that BS from TP but this is from the CDC site for 2018.

"Number of deaths for leading causes of death:
Heart disease: 655,381
Cancer: 599,274"

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-covid-regains-title-of-leading-cause-of-death-according-to-study-20201217-ux5tpw3gozdmhk5mqtdne6meju-story.html

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201217/covid-19-ranks-as-a-leading-cause-of-death-inus


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-leading-cause-of-death-united-states-this-week/

Quote: JimRockford

Receipts In 2019 dollars (Billion):
2018------3,329.9
2019------3,464.2

1.04%

3,464-3,330= 134

134/3,330= 4.02%

But the 2019 dollar was worth 2% less than the 2018 dollar.

3.94% adjusted for 2% inflation.

Quote: terapined

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-covid-regains-title-of-leading-cause-of-death-according-to-study-20201217-ux5tpw3gozdmhk5mqtdne6meju-story.html

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201217/covid-19-ranks-as-a-leading-cause-of-death-inus


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-leading-cause-of-death-united-states-this-week/

I think it would be more honest if you had said that it is currently the leading cause of death. Even at yesterdays moving 7 day average of 2,614 for a year it would only add 30% of the annual deaths in the US. A significant portion of those deaths will eventually be offset by the decrease in the number of elderly and compromised deaths that will not occurr a year or two later. Covid is bad TP and could possibly get a lot worse yet. But yelling about the sky falling does not help heal people and only puts stress on those trying to cope with what is today's reality.

Treat this a war situation and don't run around battle field screaming we are all going to die. It doesn't help.

I expect you to answer 'but look at Taiwan'. Vietnam, Cambodia and China also all have exceptionally low numbers. I am not convinced that this is only because they have all had better lockdowns. There is likely a genetic component to this disease.