Higher Ed 2020s predictions

In keeping on the 2020s predictions, another thing to look at is what post-secondary education comes out of the 2020s looking like. Seeds are already there.

The 2010s appear to be the decade when either a college education lost positive ROI for most or just the decade we noticed it as such. Some posters on here get mad when I point out that about half the kids entering college simply do not belong there and instead of "free college" we would do better with fewer kids entering "13th grade." It might be taking care of itself.

My college had 8,000 people there in 1990 when I entered, down to 4,000 today. Anecdotal to be sure, but hardly unique. The whole state system save 1-2 schools is way down in my state. Smaller private schools are closing at 1-2 a year. Back to "down to 4,000." Think on that. Cafeteria, dorms, classrooms; all built for twice as many. Empty buildings not paying for themselves. Faculty not needed, whole departments cannot pay for themselves. And one more thing, 1990 meant we were born 1969-71, very, very low birth years. Today there are way more college-age kids out there.

Then there is the student loan "crisis" that really isn't one. Most kids who are sensible come out with about a new car's worth of debt, easily payable in 5-10 years. But some are still going the "college experience" route and making themselves Serfs to Sallie. Out of state schools. Silly majors. Unrealistic expectations after school.

Gender balance is getting crazy. Women are getting near 60% of students. That "husbandry" degree just got harder to get. It is as if the feminists said "we are going to take over from you men" but at the same time the men said, "you are welcome to it!" Men seem to be taking Mike Rowe to heart or/and just getting "certifications" for specific job needs. Women, OTOH, seem to value the lambskin, and value the post-graduate world. But they take lower paying majors. By 2030 expect to see student loans made a "women's issue" that the men are expected to help pay for in higher taxes.

Where does it go? I expect by 2030 you will not see higher ed as you did in 2010. State schools will merge to one "college" with several campuses, all with narrower focus. Small, liberal arts schools will continue to close. Both of the aforesaid will really, really market to international students. Asians especially seem to like the "classic" USA system. The biggest schools in the state will get bigger from less competition, but will have more and more distance learning. Certifications will replace a BS as how you get in the door.

Many small college towns will be devastated.

Sadly, I generally agree.

I am so happy I had the traditional 4 year experience. I can't quantify in monetary terms the value I received. It helped make me who I am today. And I'm equally happy I was able to give that experience to my sons.

Funny, AS I TYPE THIS, my wife and her youngest daughter are in the living room filling out college applications. She will (hopefully) go to a NY State school. The costs are (relatively) low. I'm sure the Brockport/Freedonia/Geneseo/Buffao State degree is worth more in EV than the cost. I doubt I could say the same for the Hamilton/Colgate/Canisius degrees.

I think that the bigger problem facing traditional colleges is the ease of getting an on-line degree.

AZ, you look at college as if it is a job prep course. I look at it as so much more.

Quote: SOOPOO

AZ, you look at college as if it is a job prep course. I look at it as so much more.

I won't disagree there. But think about it. That is how it was sold to us. For me especially, as a kid I saw the near total collapse of industry in my region. We were flat out told: "There is nothing for you unless you get a degree, look around you!"

That is still being told to the kids, though now other voices are out there.

Totally agree with AZ. Plus college these days are little indoctrination camps run by the libbies. Look at how they've already programmed millions of young kids into believing that abnormal behavior is now normal. It's very sad man. Very sad.

State colleges are merging in many states, that is common, and not inherently a bad thing. It saves on admin overhead and logistical issues.

In my view, with technology, traditional campuses are becoming less and less critical. Many classes can be accomplished online.

For example, history classes, where you just show up, get assigned reading and assigned research papers, there is no reason to live full time at a campus to take such classes.

I think most non hard sciences can be studied online for far less money, and in most cases, just as effectively.... I think physical campuses will continue to close, and online offerings will grow....

Quote: Gandler

I think physical campuses will continue to close, and online offerings will grow....

All that matters in the end is
the testing. What have you learned
is more important than where you
learned it. When I went to college
it was all about the college experience,
growing up. Way too expensive now
for something you don't really need.

Quote: Gandler

State colleges are merging in many states, that is common, and not inherently a bad thing. It saves on admin overhead and logistical issues.

In my view, with technology, traditional campuses are becoming less and less critical. Many classes can be accomplished online.

For example, history classes, where you just show up, get assigned reading and assigned research papers, there is no reason to live full time at a campus to take such classes.

I think most non hard sciences can be studied online for far less money, and in most cases, just as effectively.... I think physical campuses will continue to close, and online offerings will grow....

True, true, true, and true. But am I the only one who got a lot of 'the experience' of being at school, not just the material I learned in the classes? Life is not JUST preparing to get a job......

Quote: SOOPOO

AZ, you look at college as if it is a job prep course. I look at it as so much more.

There are plenty of places Duffman can live with people whose lives avoid the waste of the useless more expansive liberal education. Generally known as tribal or peasant communities.

Quote: SOOPOO

True, true, true, and true. But am I the only one who got a lot of 'the experience' of being at school, not just the material I learned in the classes? Life is not JUST preparing to get a job......

Yes and no. I feel I am getting far better experiences taking classes online while working fulltime, than living fulltime at a campus to spend maybe 12-16 hours a week at class..... (I have experienced both).

I mean if you think about it most people take even less classes than that, so you are spending all of your time and limiting work oppurtunity to live fulltime on a campus to spend maybe 9 hours a week (probably a fair average) in class, and maybe 4-6 hours on homework or assignments or studying (that is being generously high)....


The way I look at it, having your whole life revolve around living on campus for 9 hours of actual learning, seems wasteful.... I am aware for certain specialized fields it is necessary (Law School, Medical School, Hard Sciences), but for most social sciences and liberal arts, 99% of what you see in class can be done online, even for graduate level courses....

Also, campus housing is one of the biggest ripoffs I have ever seen. You can rent a single family home for a year for the price of one semester's worth of housing in some cases.... And, it's not like you are living in great conditions for the price....

Quote: Gandler

Yes and no. I feel I am getting far better experiences taking classes online while working fulltime, than living fulltime at a campus to spend maybe 12-16 hours a week at class..... (I have experienced both).

I mean if you think about it most people take even less classes than that, so you are spending all of your time and limiting work oppurtunity to live fulltime on a campus to spend maybe 9 hours a week (probably a fair average) in class, and maybe 4-6 hours on homework or assignments or studying (that is being generously high)....


The way I look at it, having your whole life revolve around living on campus for 9 hours of actual learning, seems wasteful.... I am aware for certain specialized fields it is necessary (Law School, Medical School, Hard Sciences), but for most social sciences and liberal arts, 99% of what you see in class can be done online, even for graduate level courses....

Also, campus housing is one of the biggest ripoffs I have ever seen. You can rent a single family home for a year for the price of one semester's worth of housing in some cases.... And, it's not like you are living in great conditions for the price....

Some people can justify being on campus as an opportunity for networking and possible future career opportunities. This may not apply depending on what you’re pursuing. To me, in-person contacts, are usually more powerful and lasting than online, generally.

Even someone in a totally unrelated field might provide an opportunity in the future.