Issue for the 2020s -- fertility rate

Quote: AZDuffman

The UN predicts 100 years will be the peak or the hump so to speak. Only 2 generations away so no matter what happens it is hard to affect it much.

Yes, that is consistent with the "median line"

Quote: AZDuffman

My timeline comes from thinking that when the EU and USA fall to vastly differing racial makeup they will also fall to radically different philosophies, namely socialism and less freedoms as people vote for what they left not for what they came to. When this happens that is the end of wealth creation and the fertility brakes get slammed on.

Speculative, but still very reasonable.

Quote: AZDuffman

But there are other things. We are now entering a timeframe when in the USA at least many of our buildings and infrastructure are getting to be 100 years old. Lots of stuff will start falling apart. As that happens worldwide there will be huge relocation issues.

Also speculative, but will the pace of building new structures increase?
In 2008, developers around the world built a grand total of four “supertall” skyscrapers, a term that refers to buildings that shoot 1,000 feet or more into the air. Fast forward 10 years later, and that number has more than quadrupled. In 2018, developers built more tall buildings than any other year in history–a grand total of 18.

I hated that movie Elysium where the rich all live in giant wheel in space, but you never know.



Is it really that different from Monaco?

Quote: rxwine

You sure don't have confidence in the ability of your ideas to sway people from going into full blown socialism. That's what's sad.

There's a real middle ground. When people realize it doesn't have to be all one or other system, we'll have made progress.

Because too many people think socialism works. Or that it will work if only "the right people are in charge." No matter how much you point out in places like Cuba, they keep wanting to try it.

Quote: Pacomartin

Also speculative, but will the pace of building new structures increase?
In 2008, developers around the world built a grand total of four “supertall” skyscrapers, a term that refers to buildings that shoot 1,000 feet or more into the air. Fast forward 10 years later, and that number has more than quadrupled. In 2018, developers built more tall buildings than any other year in history–a grand total of 18.

Supertall is not really great for residential. I am talking all kinds of things all over the nation. Think about the bridges in NYC. You cannot just shut those down without crippling the city. Think about sewer systems in most of the USA. Think of the post-WWII residential construction, IOW, cheap. Think of this every which way.

Gary, IN is the perfect example of what I am talking about. Just falling apart and fewer and fewer people to keep it up. Little by little more and more smaller towns will be ghost towns. The interconnectedness of things will be what makes it hard. You cannot just close half a sewer system at least no easily.

If we retrench into even denser urban areas is a real question.

Quote: AZDuffman

If we retrench into even denser urban areas is a real question.

Ultra dense urban can either be ultra-poor or ultra-rich.

Densest community in Europe
261,068 in 4.8 sq mi= 55,000 people/sq mi L'Hospitalet de Llobregat (suburb of Barcelona)


1,628,706 in 22.83 sq mi = 71,341 people/sq mi live in Manhattan
Manhattan doubles its population every working day with commuters


It's torn down now, but Kowloon Walled city was the most densely populated place on earth. By 1990, the walled city contained 50,000 residents within its (6.4-acre) borders. It was torn down in 1994. Although it was only 1% of a square mile, it's density would have worked out to 5 million people per square mile.

This is not pure fertility rate but an interesting look at Russia.

The people seem to have been depressed for 100 years or more now. Could be a reason why so many Russians that get here want to "de-Russianize" as much as possible?

Quote: AZDuffman

This is not pure fertility rate but an interesting look at Russia.

The people seem to have been depressed for 100 years or more now. Could be a reason why so many Russians that get here want to "de-Russianize" as much as possible?

The article doesn't paint Russia out to be the threat that our media does, looks like if we just leave them alone they will dye off by themselves.

Quote: petroglyph

Quote: AZDuffman

This is not pure fertility rate but an interesting look at Russia.

The people seem to have been depressed for 100 years or more now. Could be a reason why so many Russians that get here want to "de-Russianize" as much as possible?

The article doesn't paint Russia out to be the threat that our media does, looks like if we just leave them alone they will dye off by themselves.

This is why Piutin has made some of his moves. By mid-century Russia will likely have less population than Iran. I have heard stories about Chinese living across the border in Russia, though no other confirmation.

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: petroglyph

Quote: AZDuffman

This is not pure fertility rate but an interesting look at Russia.

The people seem to have been depressed for 100 years or more now. Could be a reason why so many Russians that get here want to "de-Russianize" as much as possible?

The article doesn't paint Russia out to be the threat that our media does, looks like if we just leave them alone they will dye off by themselves.

This is why Piutin has made some of his moves. By mid-century Russia will likely have less population than Iran. I have heard stories about Chinese living across the border in Russia, though no other confirmation.

I watched a Ted talk on the natural migratory sprawl of Chinese northwards, looking for opportunity. That talk suggested lots of migration.

This report mentions that there isn't as much migration as the stories in Russian press suggest. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/250172103_Migration_between_China_and_Russia

"Historically, migration from China has corresponded to what mainstream theory would lead us to expect. “Pioneers” estab-lish initial outposts. If successful, they are joined by others from the same region, establishing networks. Beyond a certain point, these networks may become self-sustaining, persisting beyond the peak economic benet even as they remain sensitive to changing economic conditions. Although outside the major global migration ows of the late nineteenth and late twentieth centuries (Hatton and Williamson, 2005), Chinese migration to
MIGRATION BETWEEN CHINA AND RUSSIA 5Russia has largely conformed to standard patterns: Chinese have sought economic opportunities, and tended to build on networks established by “pioneers” (Pieke et al., 2004).Russian scholars capable of rationally discussing historical examples and current conditions tend to abandon their own solid research when considering the future, focusing instead on the sheer number of Chinese who could potentially migrate to Russia"

People are going to move toward their best opportunity, like they've always done. I think Chinese will populate along the BRI, "following the money"?

Quote: petroglyph

People are going to move toward their best opportunity, like they've always done. I think Chinese will populate along the BRI, "following the money"?

One issue is there is not all that much along that border. Not very hospitable. Time will tell as China has her own demographic issues.

Interesting video on fertility rate. One important part says millennial fertility rate at the moment is about 1.0. That is South Korea level and a real "WOW!"

For Wiz old footage of SS cards being printed up.