Issue for the 2020s -- fertility rate

Quote: AZDuffman

... So it seems that as wealth goes up the desire for children falls....

I recall considering this subject in the 70's, oddly enough. The way it appeared to me at the time was this as a young fella trying to "get lucky". I found that poor people spent more of their time having sex, because at that time, it was all they could afford to do. Less moneyed people more often didn't buy houses, they rented, so there was no reason during free time to be fixing up the place. More moneyed folks than that could do things, buy a piano, a pool, go places, whatever. But poor folks hung around home and had sex. And the parents impressed that on their kids as well, I found poorer girls often were more likely to fool around. jmho

Quote: AZDuffman

2. Is it inevitable that every society will fall below 2.0 as it gets wealthy?

Kids are expensive, time consuming and
a general pain in the ass for most people.
If you don't need to have them, don't.
Just watch a few hundred YouTube
vid's of Live Pd, you could be the proud
parent of one of those kids.

MOVED TO A MORE APPROPRIATE THREAD

Quote: Pacomartin

The US Census Bureau predicts that Africa with population 1,339,492,000 in the year 2020 will reach a population of 2,533,582 in the year 2050.
The Africa population in 2050 is comparable to the world population a century earlier in 1950 of 2,525,000,000

Isn't it more likely that the population centers in Africa and South Asia will take over the infrastructure-heavy portions of the world with their aging receding population?

Africa will probably try to push out as other peoples have before. But it will not be as bad as all that. As Africa gets more wealth their fertility rate will fall the same as everyone else's. Asia is already seeing fertility rates fall below replacement level. Japan and S Korea will have a population collapse in two generations at this rate. China not far behind. China could fracture into several "Chinas."

Quote: AZDuffman

Asia is already seeing fertility rates fall below replacement level. Japan and S Korea will have a population collapse in two generations at this rate. China not far behind. China could fracture into several "Chinas."

East Asia is seeing collapsing fertility rates.

2020 1,631,637,465 population: 18,219,671 births: 13,609,765 deaths
2050 1,515,284,052 population: 12,669,943 births: 21,058,567 deaths


Also, some countries in southeast Asia (like Thailand) is seeing similar collapse. Urban China has reported some of the lowest fertility rates ever recorded in history.

South Asia (India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka) is still growing like crazy.

Quote: Pacomartin

East Asia is seeing collapsing fertility rates. Also, some countries in southeast Asia (like Thailand) is seeing similar collapse. Urban China has reported some of the lowest fertility rates ever recorded in history.

South Asia (India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka) is still growing like crazy.

When those nations get wealth the rate will collapse.

This video is a great lesson.

Quote: AZDuffman

When those nations get wealth the rate will collapse. This video is a great lesson.

Thank you, it was a good video. I have seen the results of that study.

In 30 years most of the world will have deaths outnumbering births. But the growth rate is so strong in Africa and South-Central Asia that together they will constitute more than 50% of the world population and particularly in Africa births will still greatly outnumber deaths.

Population - Births / Deaths - Region (in millions) in 2050
2,533.6 - 58.9 / 13.8: Africa
2,522.6 - 34.9 / 21.2: South-Central Asia
4,609.1 - 47.0 / 53.1: Rest of World

I am not disputing your general conclusion, I am disputing your timeline. I don't think that in 100 years you will have a radically decreasing global population.

Quote: Pacomartin

Thank you, it was a good video. I have seen the results of that study.

It is interesting in that the mice chose not to reproduce. They are mice, you would think they would. People are different. I really think it is the minority who really desire children and get joy from them. Even when I was a kid the richer people were the fewer kids they had. I see this being a big thing as the world develops.

Quote:

In 30 years most of the world will have deaths outnumbering births. But the growth rate is so strong in Africa and South-Central Asia that together they will constitute more than 50% of the world population and particularly in Africa births will still greatly outnumber deaths.

Population - Births / Deaths - Region (in millions) in 2050
2,533.6 - 58.9 / 13.8: Africa
2,522.6 - 34.9 / 21.2: South-Central Asia
4,609.1 - 47.0 / 53.1: Rest of World

I am not disputing your general conclusion, I am disputing your timeline. I don't think that in 100 years you will have a radically decreasing global population.

The UN predicts 100 years will be the peak or the hump so to speak. Only 2 generations away so no matter what happens it is hard to affect it much. My timeline comes from thinking that when the EU and USA fall to vastly differing racial makeup they will also fall to radically different philosophies, namely socialism and less freedoms as people vote for what they left not for what they came to.

When this happens that is the end of wealth creation and the fertility brakes get slammed on. But there are other things. We are now entering a timeframe when in the USA at least many of our buildings and infrastructure are getting to be 100 years old. Lots of stuff will start falling apart. As that happens worldwide there will be huge relocation issues.

Quote: AZDuffman

My timeline comes from thinking that when the EU and USA fall to vastly differing racial makeup they will also fall to radically different philosophies, namely socialism and less freedoms as people vote for what they left not for what they came to.

I have little doubt a combination of socilaism/capitalism will win out over all other forms of government. It is in fact, in many ways the predominant form of government in most places already.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mixed-economic-system.asp

Quote: rxwine

I have little doubt a combination of socilaism/capitalism will win out over all other forms of government. It is in fact, in many ways the predominant form of government in most places already.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mixed-economic-system.asp

That is because you get into socialism with ink. You can only get rid of it by shooting your way out. Eventually it will starve the world to death. Sad but true.

Quote: AZDuffman

That is because you get into socialism with ink. You can only get rid of it by shooting your way out. Eventually it will starve the world to death. Sad but true.

You sure don't have confidence in the ability of your ideas to sway people from going into full blown socialism. That's what's sad.

There's a real middle ground. When people realize it doesn't have to be all one or other system, we'll have made progress.