Issue for the 2020s -- fertility rate

I keep getting video suggestions on the falling USA fertility rate on YT. Of course they come because I keep watching them. But I watch them because I have been sort of following the issue for years.

The USA has been right on the 2.1 births per woman lifetime since around 1970, when it crashed to there from the mid-3's a decade earlier. It crashed to below replacement level for 15 years or so, then hung right below nice graph here. While the rate falls in recessions, this time it has not recovered after the 2008 recession.

The USA now seems to be on the path of Western Europe and Japan. I think this will be a "hidden" issue of the 2020s. Government cannot just make a law demanding people have more kids. Europe shows that all the PTO and childcare subsidies government throws at the problem does little to nothing to slow the decline.

USA seems to be at about 1.77 per woman currently and falling. My semi-scientific prediction is that would fall to about 1.6 by the time we hit the 2030s. That adds up. While this might be beneficial in the short run--kids cost resources and produce nine--we will feel effects by the mid 2030s big time.

Discuss. Wiz, you are the expert here. Your input is desired.

Males have been disincentivized from procreating

Fine by me. There’s way too many people. I’m tired of all the traffic, and the 1hr wait at every local diner to have breakfast on a Saturday morning.

Quote: aceofspades

Males have been disincentivized from procreating

Very much so, I agree. Ironically, any "solution" will be geared towards the women and not the men. Has been for two generations now. But now the men are waking up. IMHO when the "male pill" comes out, and it very well may in the 2020s, we may well see it never get back to the needed 2.1.

Wages have not kept up with the cost of living. Most households require 2 incomes to survive, and the cost of daycare is absurd. That is enough to keep most sane couples from having kids.

Employee benefits like PTO/paid maternity or paternity leave are also at all time lows.

On top of that, the entitled generation of boomers want no part in helping raise grandkids like their parents did for them.

Quote: gamerfreak

Wages have not kept up with the cost of living. Most households require 2 incomes to survive, and the cost of daycare is absurd. That is enough to keep most sane couples from having kids.

Employee benefits like PTO/paid maternity or paternity leave are also at all time lows.

On top of that, the entitled generation of boomers want no part in helping raise grandkids like their parents did for them.

The "cost of living" has gone up faster because people "need" what was once a luxury. Bigger houses, nicer cars, up and down the line.

As to PTO, women need to make a choice. You either are a mother or have a big career. You do not get to do both, except maybe on television. Kids are not an accessory to put in daycare while you "do more important things." Dads likewise can either be the dad that coaches the team or the one who toils away in middle-management, giving the kids everything except their time.

Note that the current generation at childbearing age is the first generation to be stored in daycare in large numbers. There is a connection there.

Quote: AZDuffman

The "cost of living" has gone up faster because people "need" what was once a luxury. Bigger houses, nicer cars, up and down the line.

As to PTO, women need to make a choice. You either are a mother or have a big career. You do not get to do both, except maybe on television. Kids are not an accessory to put in daycare while you "do more important things." Dads likewise can either be the dad that coaches the team or the one who toils away in middle-management, giving the kids everything except their time.

Note that the current generation at childbearing age is the first generation to be stored in daycare in large numbers. There is a connection there.

Even if we assume that the cost of basic living like food/housing has stayed the same, wages have still declined significantly. The minimum wage in 1970 was $10.60/hr adjusted for inflation. And even then, most unskilled jobs paid above minimum wage. My dad worked his way through college in the 70’s pushing a broom in a steel mill for what would be the equivalent of $22/hr in 2019. I know you aren’t talking about/are not concerned about minimum wage workers, but median income will track minimum wage to some extent.

To put that into perspective, at the firm I work at, engineers fresh out of college with a 4yr degree and $80k in debt make around $25/hr.

Another thing that doesn’t help the situation is a something that is very common in European countries but pretty much unheard of in the US, and that is the concept of part time skilled labor. In Europe, women can maintain careers while still having children by working part time. In the US, any management or well paying finance/STEM job seems to wants people for 60hrs a week or not at all.

Quote: gamerfreak

On top of that, the entitled generation of boomers want no part in helping raise grandkids like their parents did for them.

That is the biggest crock of s... I have ever heard on here. As a leading age baby boomer we have had almost all our grandchildren living with us full time over the years. We still have an adult grandchild living with us. At least 1/3 of our friends (also all boomers) have had grandkids living with them at sometime in their lives.

I have provided much more support to my kids and grandchildren over the years then I ever received myself from my parents. This is not because they were unable or unwilling to help, I didn't ask them, I always just lived within my means.

Quote: kenarman

That is the biggest crock of s... I have ever heard on here. As a leading age baby boomer we have had almost all our grandchildren living with us full time over the years. We still have an adult grandchild living with us. At least 1/3 of our friends (also all boomers) have had grandkids living with them at sometime in their lives.

I have provided much more support to my kids and grandchildren over the years then I ever received myself from my parents. This is not because they were unable or unwilling to help, I didn't ask them, I always just lived within my means.

I was more or less raised by my grandparents since both my parents had careers. But both my parents and my fiancé’s parents have let us know they want no part in taking care of grandkids.

I don’t actually know what the trend is, I just wanted to take the opportunity to get a dig in on boomers.

Quote: gamerfreak

Even if we assume that the cost of basic living like food/housing has stayed the same, wages have still declined significantly. The minimum wage in 1970 was $10.60/hr adjusted for inflation. And even then, most unskilled jobs paid above minimum wage. My dad worked his way through college in the 70’s pushing a broom in a steel mill for what would be the equivalent of $22/hr in 2019. I know you aren’t talking about/are not concerned about minimum wage workers, but median income will track minimum wage to some extent.

I grew up hearing all those mill stories. Later in life some mill guys added "if you could get hired." You usually needed pull. But those mill guys lived very simple compared to today. Smaller house, used cars, modest vacations, the works. My grandfather retired as a superintendent of maintenance for a steel fabrication firm. His plant built the St. Louis Arch. At retirement, he was one of the very top guys and made $28000 or so in 1982, about $70,000 today. Today a median family income is about $55000. Now, he was a very top guy, making just half again what today's median is.

He did drive Cadillacs, always used, but back then a Caddy did not get the premium it gets today. His house was modest. His vacations were modest. Today his house would be considered lower middle class. Yet the only "work" his wife did was working flea markets later in life, which she enjoyed as much as for the money.

The "high mill wages" were not really a thing until the very late 1960s and lasted to about 1981. Before and after mill workers were just doing average, and most hated their jobs.

My point being, it is not the income as much as the expectations and desires. Raising kids is just not in people's plans as before. I will admit I never once for a minute wanted any part of it. You could offer me a pill that when I wake up I have a fancy job, fancy house, but wife and kids are required. I would turn it down flat.

Quote:

Another thing that doesn’t help the situation is a something that is very common in European countries but pretty much unheard of in the US, and that is the concept of part time skilled labor. In Europe, women can maintain careers while still having children by working part time. In the US, any management or well paying finance/STEM job seems to wants people for 60hrs a week or not at all.

This is interesting. I'd put part of the difference in that the USA has more a 24/7 culture while Europe still has operating hour laws in many places. For it to work the business would have to be able to use this surge labor from about 10-2, during school. Problem I see is women taking off for the kids. One woman I worked with complained that 12 PTO days a year was "not enough." Asked why she said kid problems. I retorted that was a day a month, 5% of your time, and "how would you feel if one day a month you reported to work but were sent home without pay because they did not need you?"

I blame TV for giving the "you can have it all" belief. However, I think over time all cultures want to have fewer kids.

What % of people really want kids vs. "that's what you do" or "s/he wants them?"