PA congressional districts

Quote: Dalex64

Nothing in there about what, if anything, the Pennsylvania republicans will do, or can do, next.

Republicans got greedy. They could have drawn more reasonable districts, and been happy with one less congressman, but they had to take the boundaries to the extreme.

A Democrat, won a seat in recent elections and a district that Donald J. Trump won by nearly 20 percentage points in 2016.
Conor Lamb Democrat 113,813
Rick Saccone Republican 113,186
Drew Miller Libertarian 1,379
228,378 votes

Tim Murphy, Republican won the seat unopposed in
2016 with all 293,684 total votes
2014 with all 166,076 total votes
Tim Murphy, won the seat with a large majority in the previous six elections
2012 64%
2010 67%
2008 64%
2006 58%
2004 63%
2002 60%

The NY TImes called it an ominous sign for Republicans ahead of this year’s midterm elections.

Quote: Pacomartin

Republicans got greedy. They could have drawn more reasonable districts, and been happy with one less congressman, but they had to take the boundaries to the extreme.

Dems would probably have sued no matter what given the way today's politics works.

A key takeaway from that story is that the US Supreme Court effectively said that the state court did not overstep its authority by drawing the districts themselves.

Quote: Dalex64

A key takeaway from that story is that the US Supreme Court effectively said that the state court did not overstep its authority by drawing the districts themselves.

That was the expected ruling.

The line between legal and illegal gerrymandering needs to be codified, or every state will go through this process.


You could gerrymander SE Pennsylvania in favor of Democrats. Since every possible districting shows a potential favoritism, there needs to be some mathematical rules.

Quote: Dalex64

Nothing in there about what, if anything, the Pennsylvania republicans will do, or can do, next.

I hear they have threatened to hold their breath, and you'll all be very, very sorry when they they all die as a result.

Charlie Dent is a Republican congressman (7 time winner) who is going to retire next month. Dent was critical of President Trump and Trump in turn said that Dent was destroying the GOP. By resigning early it gives a Democratic contender a chance to win a special election for the interim period of a few months.

Pennsylvania is considered critical to the Democratic Party's move to take over the House in 2016. The Democrats control 5 of the 18 seats in the past three regular elections, but have won a special election on March 13, 2018. If the Democratic governer orders a special election then a 7th Democratic congressmen might win.

A third Republican seat is also in danger. The Philadelphia Inquirer noted that "Of the many Republicans who took a political blow from Pennsylvania's new congressional map, Chester County's Ryan Costello got hit the hardest." Costello announced that he will no longer seek re-election due to the growing Democratic voter demographic in his district.

Going back to 1994, if there is no incumbent on the ballot and and the president's party's candidate (Trump Republican) won in the previous House election but the opposition party's presidential candidate won in the previous presidential election (Hillary Clinton in this case) then the opposition party has always won.

Costello's seat and Dent's seat are now the 8th and 9th seat to meet this criteria.

If the Democratic party flips the 23 seats they need to win back a national majority, it may have the largest count in Pennsylvania.

The Governor of Pennsylvania has announced what he is going to do about the two vacant Republican congressional seats. There is going to be two elections in November. One for the old congressional boundaries to fill the seats for exactly two months, and a second election for the new congressional boundaries to fill the seats for the next two years. As there will be different people voting, they may not elect the same person.

Normally, if a congressional seat is vacant, you have an election in November, but the congressman if elected simply fills the seat from the time the election is determined instead of waiting until January.

If come January there is a Democrat majority representing Pennsylvania after three straight terms of 5 Democrats and 13 Republicans then you can expect lawsuits challenging congressional boundaries all over the country.

These carefully crafted minority-majority districts that they have spent three decades creating might be collateral damage.

Quote: Pacomartin

These carefully crafted minority-majority districts that they have spent three decades creating might be collateral damage.

That would mean no more Maxine Waters and no more questions about Guam tipping over.

Good. I am all in favor of fair districting.

While doing a little digging on California gerrymandering, I found this:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redistricting_in_California

Late in the article it said something rather shocking: in 2010, republicans and democrats agreed to gerrymandering which concentrated votes of each party into their own districts, resulting in very few "competitive" districts.

In other words, the representatives in California are a better political and idealogical match for the vast majority of the people whom they represent in their districts.

Quote: Dalex64

In other words, the representatives in California are a better political and idealogical match for the vast majority of the people whom they represent in their districts.

This is what Democrats refer to as gerrymandering.