PA congressional districts

Quote: Pacomartin

There is only a single Republican congressman in Maryland,Oregon,Nevada, and New Mexico. I doubt that is representative of the percentage of voters who voted Republican in recent elections.

Come on, it is only "rigging" when something favors Republicans!

I could see some basic groundrules for the four largest counties.
The City of Philadelphia should include two districts wholly inside city boundaries
Allegheny County should be divided into no more than two districts
Montgomery county should be entirely in one district
Delaware county should be entirely in one district

With those four requirements it takes away most of your latitude.

I see the Governor rejected the GOP proposed map.

Quote: Pacomartin

But presumably both parties take advantage of being allowed to draw district boundaries. As I said earlier 1/3 of voters chose Trump in Massachusetts, but all 9 districts have Democratic congressmen.

There was a series of podcasts and articles on Five Thirty Eight about gerrymandering. In Arizona they set a bipartisan comission to draw competitive districts, and it seems to have worked. In California things were set up to protect incumbents, and that too was changed.

But these are exceptions. in the main, the party that can manage it, draws the map to favor itself.

And that's what's driving your country apart. Pretty much the vast majority of Congressional races are over by the primaries, and usually it's "the base," that is to say the most extreme partisans, that cast the most votes in them. That's why you have political enemies inhabiting the House rather than political rivals.

Quote: Pacomartin

I see the Governor rejected the GOP proposed map.

He is a far left hack, what a surprise!

I sincerely hope he gets the boot at election time. Would be great for my industry, which he is trying to kill.

In 1810 there were five cities in the USA with population over 20,0000
1 New York city, NY *..................... 96,373
2 Philadelphia city, PA *................. 53,722
3 Baltimore city, MD...................... 46,555
4 Boston town, MA *....................... 33,787
5 Charleston city, SC..................... 24,711

In Boston the term Gerrymandering was invented for the 1812 election.

Quote: Nareed

And that's what's driving your country apart. Pretty much the vast majority of Congressional races are over by the primaries, and usually it's "the base," that is to say the most extreme partisans, that cast the most votes in them. That's why you have political enemies inhabiting the House rather than political rivals.

Basically drawing boundaries to affect politics is as old as urban USA itself. It is not the defining quality of post Reagan politics.

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Quote: NY Times

In 1982 Congress amended the Voting Rights Act to require that blacks and other minorities be given an enhanced opportunity to elect one of their own to Congress and to state legislatures. To do that, Congressional and state legislative maps were redrawn after the 1990 Census, a process in which blacks and Republicans came together in an odd alliance to assure that minorities would constitute a majority in some districts.
Reapportionment produced a bumper crop of black elected officials in 1992, with Congress adding 16 black lawmakers. But at the same time, some scholars say, it sowed some of the seeds of the Democrats' political misfortune this year.
Consolidating black voters, staunch Democrats for decades, into a few districts removed them from other districts, many of which had been held, with their help, by white Democrats. As a result, the white-majority districts that remained had a more Republican cast.

After the 1980 census, Democratic congressmen won 11-13 out of 23 districts
1982 13/23
1984 13/23
1986 12/23
1988 12/23
1990 11/23

Pennsylvania Democrats held onto 11 districts after the 1990 census. Republicans reduced from 12 to 10 as total districts were reduced by two.
1992 11/21
1994 11/21
1996 11/21
1998 11/21
2000 10/21

Pennsylvania Republican controlled the map after the 2000 census. Republicans got a little greedy and for two of five elections they lost control of the delegation. Democratically controlled districts:
2002 7/19
2004 7/19
2006 11/19
2008 12/19
2010 7/19

Pennsylvania Republican controlled the map after the 2010 census. Given the campaign war chest in the 17th district Democratic districts were probably going to be reduced four after 2018 elections. Democratically controlled districts:
2012 5/18
2014 5/18
2016 5/18

Some ambitious Republican politicians thought they could reduce Democratic controlled districts to three after the 2020 census which will probably reduce the total to 17 districts. Democrats will always control at least three districts (two in Philadelphia region and one in Pittsburgh), but it takes creative boundaries to limit the total to three.

Basically the Democrats panicked and took advantage of a Democratic governor who will reject any Republican map.

The difference is that Republicans who are unfortunate enough to live in Massachusetts are not whining like babies about the way their districts are drawn. The Pennsylvania Democrats choose to live in the big cities with other like minded people, aka Democrats. If they would spread out proportionally to the other districts they could be like Massachusetts, too.

I would say my state, NY, likely has the most gerrymandered districts for our State Senate. For our Assembly it is roughly 7-3 Democrat. But there is a slight edge for Repubs in our Senate. Considering that Dems outweigh Repubs 2-1 state-wide that is quite remarkable.

If the republicans in Massachusetts live completely homogeneously among the democrats, then they have no hope - there is no way for a district to be drawn to create a republican majority.

However, it is my understanding that district lines COULD be drawn to give republicans a majority in 2 or 3 districts, out of 9, a number that approaches the ratio of republicans to democrats in the state. That would mean that, as a republican, no matter where you lived in the state, you would have representation proportional to the population.

Gerrymandering is wrong, no matter who is doing it and which party is benefiting from it, who is whining about it, and who is passively accepting that their voice isn't being represented.

Quote: Dalex64

If the republicans in Massachusetts live completely homogeneously among the democrats, then they have no hope - there is no way for a district to be drawn to create a republican majority.

Well that would be true of any state or any political group. If everything were uniform, then boundaries wouldn't matter at all.

But I think that people don't miss what they have never had.
Massachusetts elected five Republican congressmen in 1932, and only 19 since then.

In Pennsylvania Democrats had a majority since only the 2008 election. With Matt Cartwright's district voting for Trump by such a large margin, there was an excellent chance that Democrat's would be down to 4 out of 18 PA congressmen starting next year.

I also think that the Republican's blew it. Everybody expects gerrymandering, but if you smash it in people's faces then they can't help but react.


You see what they did with the Harrisburg, the state capital. They crammed it into District #4 with enough Republicans to overwhelm the heavily Democratic vote of tiny Harrisburg with it's over 50% African American population. That may be effective from a voting standpoint, but it is the State Capital. That guarantees a lot of news stories about under representation.

Tim Murphy Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Pennsylvania's 18th district In office January 3, 2003 – October 21, 2017

In October 2017, reports emerged that Murphy had encouraged his lover to abort her pregnancy despite holding a strict public anti-abortion stance. House Speaker Paul Ryan announced that Murphy had tendered his resignation effective October 21, 2017.



What is interesting about this special election is that it is still using the old congressional boundaries. The district votes heavily Republican in the last two elections:
2016 38.5% Hillary 58.1% Donald Trump
2012 41.0% Obama 57.9% Romney

Yet they voted in a Democratic congressmen.

Although sex or corruption scandals often result in a party switch, Trump still had a 20% lead in the district. Democrats take the special election as a positive sign that they will win back the House this fall.

"Supreme Court rejects Republican request to halt new Pennsylvania congressional map"

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/supreme-court-rejects-republican-request-to-halt-new-pennsylvania-congressional-map

Nothing in there about what, if anything, the Pennsylvania republicans will do, or can do, next.