Bombardier CS100
October 17th, 2017 at 9:34:35 AM permalink | |
Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
Right now the MAX-8 and the closely related MAX-200 are worthy competitors to the CS300 series. Even Canadian airlines have ordered over a 100 of these planes. But it is clear that Airbus wants to continue with planes to stretch the CS300 to a 165 passenger CS500. Then the lineup of CS300 to CS500 to A320neo to A321 neo to "A321 neo long range variant" has the potential to push Boeing to a minor player in the narrowbody market. And that is before COMAC and Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft join in the process. The situation is dire. They have 7 years of production to meet these orders. They need to start on their ground up design, even if it is for the Middle of the Market. |
October 17th, 2017 at 9:53:47 AM permalink | |
Nareed Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 346 Posts: 12545 |
I think they'll do the joint venture with COMAC. China would love nothing better, and Europe would hate nothing worse. Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER |
October 18th, 2017 at 1:13:29 AM permalink | |
Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
Airbus has a fairly large number of deliveries in the USA.
Their political claims seem to conflict with their database Orders, Deliveries - North America 2031 Total Orders 1423 Total Deliveries Airbus Wide bodies.(USA only) 414 Total Orders 293 Total Deliveries 235 Aircraft in Operation 121 unfilled orders Airbus narrow bodies. (USA only) 1512 Total Orders 1025 Total Deliveries 1175 Aircraft in Operation 487 unfilled orders Boeing 737 Max orders (USA only) 200 Southwest Airlines 135 United Airlines 100 American Airlines 32 Alaska Airlines 10 Eastern Air Lines Group, Inc. So even as worldwide narrow body orders are tipping towards Airbus, within the USA orders are close to equal. |
October 18th, 2017 at 7:59:04 AM permalink | |
Nareed Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 346 Posts: 12545 |
That's fine for a regional manufacturer who doesn't aspire to much else besides. Airbus, BTW, has got the jump on Boeing, and it didn't even cost them a song. Really, Airbus did the equivalent of acquiring Manhattan for a bunch of beads, as several cartoons have claimed. They didn't even take on debt. and now they have a state of the art narrow body to build on. Boeing won't die, and wont' be taken over by Airbus. But they may be diminished for decades. My last prediction, for now: when/if there is a CS 500, it will be assembled in Toulouse. Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER |
October 18th, 2017 at 9:40:13 AM permalink | |
Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
CS300 is presently being configured with 145 seats by it's two customers that have received deliveries. I think the exit limit is 160. We have several airlines with configurations for the MAX-8. Norwegian Air Shuttle 189 Seats (exit limit) Lion Air 180 Seats Southwest 175 Seats WestJet 174 Seats American 172 Seats: 126 Economy 16 First 30 Main Cabin Extra Silk Air 156 Seats: 144 Economy 12 First flydubai TBD seats The MAX-8 has a shorter range variant called MAX-200 that can carry 200 seats. It seems very unlikely that the CS500 will be able to carry as many seats, BUT I don't know for sure. It may be a full scale competitor.
I think that Bombardier does a lot of assembly in Ireland. |
October 18th, 2017 at 12:47:52 PM permalink | |
Nareed Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 346 Posts: 12545 |
It would be a mistake to think one can stretch the C Series indefinitely. A CS 500 would be the end of the line. Past that, Airbus should develop a new narrow body based on design innovations from the C Series, including the passenger-centric features. That way they can debut an A360 within a decade or so. At the same time, they should monitor the operational performance of the CS 100 and 300 to see what improvements the next generation of regional jets need to make.
Just the wings, AFAIK. of course, that's an important component. I wonder how Brexit will affect things. Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER |
October 22nd, 2017 at 3:38:23 PM permalink | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 | I was a little surprised to see how many narrowbody Airbus planes were ordered by North American companies compared to Europe. By N.A. I mean mostly USA. The only qualifier is that most of them are ordered by USA leasing companies, so they may actually be operated elsewhere in the globe.
The A321neo regular range (3,500 nmi) and "long range" (4,000 nmi ) version are not broken out. However, that A321 neo can sit up to extra rows over the B737-10MAX for the same nominal price, and seems to be selling much better even without the "long range"
The above table is not including Bombardier purchase. So Airbus doesn't really need more help. They are clearly the dominant company in narrowbodies. 2629 orders broken out by North American customer (some airlines bankrupt) AIR CANADA ROUGE 0 ~operator of Air Canada aircraft CANADIAN AIRLINES INTERNATIONAL 2 ~bankrupt AIR CANADA 38 .... ALLEGIANT AIR 12 HAWAIIAN AIRLINES 16 VIRGIN AMERICA 49 UNITED AIRLINES 98 FRONTIER AIRLINES 103 SPIRIT AIRLINES 128 NORTHWEST AIRLINES 78~merged with Delta DELTA AIR LINES 122 JETBLUE AIRWAYS 278 AMERICA WEST AIRLINES 23 ~merged with AA US AIRWAYS 149~merged with AA AMERICAN AIRLINES 171 ... GECAS 484 ILFC 304 AIR LEASE CORPORATION 211 CIT 164 AVIATION CAPITAL GROUP 124 BOULLIOUN 28 MACQUARIE AIRCRAFT LEASING LTD 43 |
October 23rd, 2017 at 7:31:53 AM permalink | |
Nareed Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 346 Posts: 12545 |
For now. I suppose airbus may be betting that Boeing won't design a new narrow body between now and, say, the year 4,000,000 CE. But I don't think that's a good bet. I wonder, too, how much range one could get off a clean slate narrow body using composites and all we've learned about aerodynamics since the late 80s. Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER |
October 24th, 2017 at 3:31:57 AM permalink | |
Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
The Middle of Market is , by definition for Boeing, between Boeing 737 MAX-9 of 194,700 lb of maximum takeoff weight (MTOW) for 178 passengers in two class over a 3,515 nmi range, Boeing 787-8 of 502,500 lb of MTOW for 335 passengers in a 2 class configuration over a 7,355 nmi range. The Middle of Market is , by definition for Airbus, between A321neoLR of 214,000 lb of MTOW for 206 passengers in two class over a 4,000 nmi range, and the A330neo-800 of 534,000 lb for 257 passengers in three class over a 7,500 nmi range. Not everyone believes that long range narrowbodies are the wave of the future for the Middle of Market. At the March 2015 International Society of Transport Aircraft Traders conference, Air Lease Corporation's Steven Udvar-Hazy predicted the 757 replacement as a more capable, clean-sheet 767-like twin-aisle airplane capable of taking off 7,000 feet runways like New York LaGuardia. Frankly, I don't believe that scenario is possible. Boeing would have made a short range Dreamliner 787-7 if it was economical 767-300ER Exit limit 351 seats Fuel capacity 16,700 US gal (5,980nmi range) 787-8 Exit limit 381 Fuel capacity 33,340 US gal (7,355 nmi range) In February 2015, Boeing marketing Vice President Randy Tinseth stated re-engining the 757 had been studied but there was no business case to support it., and Tinseth is focused on 20% more range and more capacity than the 757-200. ALthough Airbus's claim that there is a market for 1000 narrowbodies with the 4000 nmi range, so far there are not that many clear orders for the Long Range Version vs the 3500 nmi version. In other words orders for the A321neo have been strong, but other than Norwegian Air Shuttle widely reported upgrade for the order for 30 regular version to long range versions in 2016, other airlines have been silent. Notably American Airlines ordered 100 A321neos, but it is not clear how many, if any, will be the long range version 49 Airbus A320 :22.1 years 53 McDonnell Douglas MD-80/90: 24.7 years 51 Boeing 757: 19.9 years Order date Customer A321neo 27. Apr. 2011 AerCap 53 22. Jun. 2011 IndiGo 25 22. Jun. 2011 LATAM Airlines Group 19 23. Jun. 2011 AirAsia 100 8. Aug. 2011 Cebu Pacific 32 10. Aug. 2011 Lufthansa 40 10. Aug. 2011 CIT Group 1 6. Oct. 2011 Qantas 45 27. Oct. 2011 JetBlue 60 14. Nov. 2011 ALAFCO 10 15. Nov. 2011 Qatar Airways 16 15. Nov. 2011 Aviation Capital Group 14 26. Jan. 2012 Avianca 17 6. Jun. 2012 Air Lease Corporation 141 8. Jun. 2012 Norwegian Air Shuttle 30 ============= upgraded to Long Range Version in 2016 9. Jul. 2012 Arkia 4 28. Aug. 2012 Philippine Airlines 21 30. Aug. 2012 ICBC Leasing 11 3. Sep. 2012 Gulf Air 17 7. Dec. 2012 Middle East Airlines 9 18. Dec. 2012 Pegasus Airlines 18 19. Dec. 2012 BOC Aviation 17 23. Jan. 2013 American Airlines 100 15. Mar. 2013 Turkish Airlines 92 18. Mar. 2013 Lion Air 65 25. Mar. 2013 Hawaiian Airlines 16 11. Jul. 2013 EasyJet 30 17. Nov. 2013 Etihad Airways 26 11. Feb. 2014 VietJet Air 31 27. Mar. 2014 ANA Holdings 22 1. Jun. 2014 Air New Zealand 4 17. Jun. 2014 Hong Kong Aviation Capital 30 17. Sep. 2014 Swiss International Air Lines 5 1. Dec. 2014 Azul Brazilian Airlines 10 12. Jan. 2015 China Aircraft Leasing Group Holdings 1 13. Jan. 2015 =======================Airbus launches A321neo "long range" with true transatlantic capability 16. Jun. 2015 GE Capital Aviation Services 34 31. Jul. 2015 Asiana Airlines 25 6. Aug. 2015 British Airways 10 14. Sep. 2015 Wizz Air (Hungary) 110 3. Nov. 2015 Korean Air 30 5. Nov. 2015 Iberia 3 13. Nov. 2015 TAP Portugal 22 28. Apr. 2017 Nile Air 2 19. Sep. 2017 Cathay Pacific 32 N/A Undisclosed customers 78 The only significant order made after the announcement is by Wizz Air, and the extra 500 nmi doesn't is just barely possible to make flights to Providence RI in the USA where NAS is flying long range B737s into the USA. But more than likely Wizz Air is simply looking for larger narrowbodies to fly within Europe. |
October 24th, 2017 at 1:26:35 PM permalink | |
Nareed Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 346 Posts: 12545 |
I was wondering how long a regular narrow body can fly. there have to be routes where even the smallest wide body provides too much capacity. But the divide for a MoM plane between the two behemoths is wiiiiide!
Funny you should mention this. According to the blog One Mile at a Time, an unnamed "major airline" is looking to get up to 50 or so new B-767s. The 767 is still in production in cargo version, and there's a tanker version for the Air Force. So the production lines are there. the question is why would any airline (speculation has United in the lead) would want an outdated plane with a high operating cost per passenger-mile. One answer is that a 767 costs way less than a 787 and carries fewer passengers; so it would be a good fit for shorter routes that are too thin even for the 787-8. What I wonder is why Boeing didn't go for a re-engined 767. Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER |