Gigafactory

January 22nd, 2020 at 7:23:02 PM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 62
Posts: 7831
nevertheless, naked shorts may be in trouble.
January 23rd, 2020 at 3:41:46 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Quote: reno
I'm a fan of Tesla, but I want to go on record stating that their stock is currently extremely overpriced and it's absolutely not worth its insane trading price of $569/share. (It's up 140% just in the last 4 months!) It's a bubble, and this bubble will eventually pop.

Irrational exuberance.


It is a weird cult stock. At this point they would have to be what, 30% or more market share to be remotely close to what their market cap is? Reminds me of when Priceline had a higher cap than Delta.

I would have to think no money pro would touch this thing at this point. Of course how often do pros follow the crazy crowd?

The next 3 years lots of EVs are hitting the market. GM and Subaru are two companies betting the farm the market goes electric. Subaru plans to be 100% EV in 10 years or so. GM almost that. IMHO this is another case of too many MBAs reading too much research and not living in reality. We shall see. I heard just yesterday not sure if it was Consumer Reports or someone like them said currently an EV will cost you about $600 more over the life of the vehicle all-in. So costs are now even. EVs will have to sell on their merits.

Will they is the question? I see GM making the same kind of crazy bet they did on FWD in 1980. We saw how that turned out. But the point is by 2024 we are going to see if this market as it stands is for EVs or Teslas.

As to the stock, this is going to hurt and hurt bad. A few sane analysts are saying to stay away. But the rest seem to ignore making an actual value and are just pulling numbers from a hat. TSLA is a auto company with a bad earnings history. The P/E should reflect that. But it is a cult. Cults do great right up till the end.
The President is a fink.
January 23rd, 2020 at 5:54:24 AM permalink
AcesAndEights
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 6
Posts: 351
Quote: AZDuffman
I heard just yesterday not sure if it was Consumer Reports or someone like them said currently an EV will cost you about $600 more over the life of the vehicle all-in.

Just a note on this number, I'm not disputing it as an average/median, but this number will vary widely based on your local cost of electricity. Somewhere with low power rates due to lots of cheap hydro (e.g. PNW area) you will pay a lot less to keep your EV charged up. Versus somewhere like New England with very expensive power. So it's a spectrum. Not surprised at that number as an average though.
"You think I'm joking." -EvenBob
January 23rd, 2020 at 7:59:45 AM permalink
DRich
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 51
Posts: 4944
Quote: AZDuffman


Will they is the question? I see GM making the same kind of crazy bet they did on FWD in 1980. We saw how that turned out. But the point is by 2024 we are going to see if this market as it stands is for EVs or Teslas.

As to the stock, this is going to hurt and hurt bad. A few sane analysts are saying to stay away. But the rest seem to ignore making an actual value and are just pulling numbers from a hat. TSLA is a auto company with a bad earnings history. The P/E should reflect that. But it is a cult. Cults do great right up till the end.


But tpday the majority of passengercars are front wheel drive, so they weren't wrong just too early. I expect the same thing with electric. Don't judge it by 2024, judge it in 2034.
At my age a Life In Prison sentence is not much of a detrrent.
January 23rd, 2020 at 8:47:17 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Quote: DRich
But tpday the majority of passengercars are front wheel drive, so they weren't wrong just too early. I expect the same thing with electric. Don't judge it by 2024, judge it in 2034.


Too early and too fast. Lots of issues happened and they lost much business forever because of it.

EV is an even bigger bet. I just see the same MBA thinking yet again.
The President is a fink.
January 23rd, 2020 at 10:00:48 AM permalink
DRich
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 51
Posts: 4944
Quote: AZDuffman
Too early and too fast. Lots of issues happened and they lost much business forever because of it.

EV is an even bigger bet. I just see the same MBA thinking yet again.


I am still waiting for the common use of nuclear power for automobiles. I do believe it will happen but I don't expect to be around to see it.
At my age a Life In Prison sentence is not much of a detrrent.
January 23rd, 2020 at 10:20:25 AM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 188
Posts: 18633
Quote: DRich
I am still waiting for the common use of nuclear power for automobiles. I do believe it will happen but I don't expect to be around to see it.


The Ford Nucleon is a concept car developed by Ford in 1957 designed as a future nuclear-powered car, one of a handful of such designs during the 1950s and '60s. The concept was only demonstrated as a scale model. The design did not include an internal-combustion engine; rather, the vehicle was to be powered by a small nuclear reactor in the rear of the vehicle, based on the assumption that this would one day be possible by reducing sizes. The car was to use a steam engine powered by uranium fission similar to those found in nuclear submarines.[1]

The mock-up of the car can be viewed at the Henry Ford Museum in Dearborn, Michigan.[2]

Contents
Design concept Edit


Nucleon at the Deutsches Technikmuseum Berlin
At the time of the concept's unveiling, nuclear technology was relatively new and it was believed that soon nuclear-fission technology could be made compact and affordable such that nuclear fuel would become the primary energy source in the U.S. and gasoline would become obsolete.[3] Ford envisioned a future where gas stations would be replaced with full service recharging stations, and that the vehicle would get 5000 miles before the reactor would have to be swapped out for a new one. These would be scaled down versions of the nuclear reactors that military submarines used at the time, utilizing uranium as the fissile material. Because the entire reactor would be replaced, Ford hypothesized that the owner would have multiple choices for reactors, such as a fuel efficient model or a high performance model, at each reactor change. Ultimately, the reactor would use heat to convert water into steam and the power train would be steam driven.[4]
You believe in an invisible god, and dismiss people who say they are trans? Really?
January 27th, 2020 at 10:39:34 AM permalink
reno
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 58
Posts: 1384
Quote: DRich
I am still waiting for the common use of nuclear power for automobiles. I do believe it will happen but I don't expect to be around to see it.


Would a nuclear powered car be more dangerous in a car accident?

Could a terrorist somehow take advantage of having millions of nuclear cars on the road?
January 30th, 2020 at 4:09:02 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Tesla Racks Up Another Record Year (and Another Loss)

More than all of TSLA quarterly profit made from selling EV credits? As well as half of free cash flow?

This company keeps looking more and more like Enron or Texas Air. Where is that Bethany McKee or McGee who called out Enron when everyone else kept yelling BUY BUY BUY!?
The President is a fink.
January 30th, 2020 at 7:41:17 AM permalink
DRich
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 51
Posts: 4944
Quote: AZDuffman
Tesla Racks Up Another Record Year (and Another Loss)

More than all of TSLA quarterly profit made from selling EV credits? As well as half of free cash flow?

This company keeps looking more and more like Enron or Texas Air. Where is that Bethany McKee or McGee who called out Enron when everyone else kept yelling BUY BUY BUY!?


My guess is at some point Tesla will file for bankruptcy and then come out of it a strong company that mainly sells batteries to other manufacturers.
At my age a Life In Prison sentence is not much of a detrrent.