Airbus 380

Quote: AZDuffman

The public always buys the nonsense the aircraft manufacturers show of an open cabin with a piano bar they can hang out in during the flight. Reality is that the airlines will just use every extra inch to shoehorn in more and more cattle, er, passengers and even if there was that cool piano bar the drinks would cost $25+ to justify using all that real estate for said bar. However, look for another manufacturer to show a fancy piano bar in another huge aircraft one day and the public then to bite just as it always does.

If they are debating about developing new engines for the A380 it makes these visions difficult to imagine,

Quote: AZDuffman

In the next 10-20 years I look for China to muscle in to the aircraft manufacture biz. I don't buy that their GDP is bigger than ours with this "parity" nonsense. But I do think they are of the size where they will soon ask why they are buying Yankee and Euro aircraft. At first they may sell only to third world countries, but give it time.

China has built a few regional jets


and they are planning to build full size single aisle jets by 2016


The narrow body jet market is going to get increasingly crowded with
Canada-Bombardier,
Brazil-Embraer,
Russia-Sukhoi and
China-Comac
joining in competition with Airbus and Boeing.

Even Japan has launched a regional jet and may move up to competing in the full size narrow body jet soon.


But the widebody market is very healthy outside of the A380 and 747-8i. Dreamliners are selling very well with over 800 on order, and Boeing may increase production over 10 per month. For Airbus, the A330 is still going strong with 255 on order and there are 778 orders for the A350.

I don't see any new players in wide-bodies for several decades.

The super slow production of the A380 seems to be slowing to glacial. There has been only one delivery since 22 Dec

164 Airbus A380-800 A6-EOB Emirates 03. Nov 2014
165 Airbus A380-800 A6-EOC Emirates 26. Nov 2014
168 Airbus A380-800 A6-EOD Emirates 10. Dec 2014
166 Airbus A380-800 A6-APA Etihad Airways 15. Dec 2014
169 Airbus A380-800 A6-EOE Emirates 22. Dec 2014
171 Airbus A380-800 A6-EOF Emirates 30. Jan 2015

There are four jets with line numbers that are "On Order" that are not scheduled to go to Middle East
173 Airbus A380-800 G-XLEI British Airways
175 Airbus A380-800 D-AIMM Lufthansa
177 Airbus A380-800 D-AIMN Lufthansa
179 Airbus A380-800 HL7634 Asiana Airlines

I think their whole program has collapsed outside of the Middle East, and they just don't want to let on to the public yet. the books still show 67 jets outside of the middle East on firm order, but I don't see them delivering many beyond these four.

Quote: Pacomartin

I think their whole program has collapsed outside of the Middle East, and they just don't want to let on to the public yet. the books still show 67 jets outside of the middle East on firm order, but I don't see them delivering many beyond these four.

It was always about having the biggest plane. They never asked why in 30 years did BA not make one bigger than the 747.

Quote: AZDuffman

It was always about having the biggest plane. They never asked why in 30 years did BA not make one bigger than the 747.

It's the same analysis that says you should fill a casino from top to bottom with slot machines. Slot machines always show the best return per square foot.

The fiscal analysis done at Airbus always said the greatest returns would occur if you packed the A380 somewhat near the maximum configuration of 853 seats.

The airlines have configured the A380 with 407-526 seats.


None of the Japanese airlines have bought the A380. Instead they configure some of their Boeing 777s with as many as 500 seats (single class). That is their cattle class planes, but they are only used for domestic flights (which are obviously short in Japan).

The US Airlines have 375 seats in their remaining B747's, but the biggest configuration is 344 seats once those are retired.

Quote: Pacomartin

It's the same analysis that says you should fill a casino from top to bottom with slot machines. Slot machines always show the best return per square foot.

The fiscal analysis done at Airbus always said the greatest returns would occur if you packed the A380 somewhat near the maximum configuration of 853 seats.

They thought they were letting everyone in on a secret with that? Next thing you know they will do an "analysis" that professional wrestling is fake.

It is the same left-brain thinking that has made many a business failure. "Yeah, we fill it see how much we will make!" The right-brain, or at least more balanced guy says, "but how often will you be able to fill it?" Of course the second guy never gets to ask the question because he was drummed out at a lower level because after a few years of it he was no longer able to sell upper management's BS to his people and started to refuse to do so. Eventually he found it better to hustle small gigs on his own than sell his soul to the corporate world for a decent but not great salary and personal use of a domestic sedan.

Billions to develop. All those zeros down the drain. What do you think they will waste their money developing next?

Quote: AZDuffman

Billions to develop. All those zeros down the drain. What do you think they will waste their money developing next?

They have 4 more to deliver to East Asia (a Korean offprice airlines) and 97 on the books for the Middle East. There are 63 more on the books for Europe and Singapore & Qantas. It's these last 63 that are probably mostly fake (Airbus won't take them off the books as "firm" orders).

At a production rate of nominally 24 a year (which seems to be slowing recently), they will never recover the development cost with the current orders. But I figure they will work for 4 more years and fill the Middle East orders. In 5 years, the Middle East airlines will begin to terminate their leases, and the older A380's will be available for purchase or lease.

Nobody will order any additional new jets without a redesign of the engines (which will cost billions more). They have to start that development within 2 years or admit that the program is closing and possibly anger the Middle East airlines forever. They may switch their entire fleets to the B777max as the leases on the A380's are finished.

In the meantime Boeing will probably deliver it's 1000th Dreamliner within 6 years to 58 customers i(ncluding 125 to Middle East). Airbus has 780 orders to 40 customers for the A350.

There's money in replacement parts, special tools, and upgrades to existing models. Is that part of the profit equation?

Quote: Ayecarumba

There's money in replacement parts, special tools, and upgrades to existing models. Is that part of the profit equation?

Probably, but if the installed base is not high enough then I would think the parts and upgrades would be a losing proposition.

Quote: Ayecarumba

There's money in replacement parts, special tools, and upgrades to existing models. Is that part of the profit equation?

But if you spend $25 billion in developing the jet, and you sell only 250 jets that is $100 million in developing cost per airframe. While maintenance is part of the profit equation, you can't earn back $100 million per jet.

Emirates loves the planes. They put ultra expensive showers in the upper decks to make them more exclusive. People seem willing to spend insane amounts of money to fly business and first class on Emirates.

Outside of the Middle East, the only remaining orders for the A380 are as follows. Qantas is nearly bankrupt and has refused any new A380 for over 3 years. Singapore Airlines is cutting way back and their last A380 was 2.5 years ago. Amadeo is a leasing company, and they have no orders for the A380. Virgin Atlantic was one of the original customers, and they have delayed every order for 8 years. Transaero is a Russian airline. Air Austral is based in Réunion, a small French island in the Indian ocean. There plan was to pack out the jets with vacationers, but they have all but abandoned. The UNDISCLOSED airline is actually in Hong Kong, but they are in the middle of a major fight between Airbus and the Chinese governments.

8 QANTAS AIRWAYS
5 SINGAPORE AIRLINES
20 AMEDEO
6 VIRGIN ATLANTIC
4 TRANSAERO AIRLINES
2 AIR AUSTRAL
10 UNDISCLOSED

It is possible that these four airlines will honor their firm orders, partly because of political pressure.

4 ASIANA AIRLINES
2 LUFTHANSA
2 AIR FRANCE
4 BRITISH AIRWAYS (One delivered in February)

The Middle East airlines seem happy with their business plans will probably purchase the 97 jets on firm order. Combined with the 153 delivered by the end of January that is not nearly enough airframes to make back the development costs.

So the big issue is do they throw more money in developing a next generation set of engines to reduce fuel costs in the blind hope that US airlines will change their mind after decades of saying no, and purchase a 100 of these jets.

The Dreamliner cost $32 billion to develop, and while it is a less expensive plane, there are over a thousand on order.

http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-12-18/airbus-a380-big-plane-small-sales

Bloomberg Business news has a story on the A380 that says

Emirates’ president, Tim Clark, is urging Airbus to upgrade the A380’s engines. Because that would take about four years, “Airbus will be obliged to make a decision one way or the other in 2015,” says Yan Derocles, an analyst at Oddo Securities in Paris. He estimates an engine upgrade may cost Airbus €2 billion ($2.5 billion) because of new work required on the wing.

“It’s a pity,” says Emirates’ Clark of the A380. “It’s a very big cash generator for us. I just open the doors, and the people come.”