Is it over?

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October 24th, 2012 at 7:54:04 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Romney now at =>50% in Gallup and Rasmussen. In 2008 Obama never fell below that once he was above. Is it over?
The President is a fink.
October 24th, 2012 at 11:43:27 AM permalink
RedNeckerson
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 5
Posts: 32
Quote: AZDuffman
Romney now at =>50% in Gallup and Rasmussen. In 2008 Obama never fell below that once he was above. Is it over?


it is for me, I already voted.
October 24th, 2012 at 11:43:57 AM permalink
Juyemura
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1
Posts: 4
Does the Gallup poll take into consideration voters who have already sent in their ballots by mail?
October 24th, 2012 at 1:23:03 PM permalink
sodawater
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1
Posts: 3
Yes, it's basically over... but not the way you mean. Obama has the election pretty well sewn up. It's just a function of the electoral college, if nothing else. Romney's path to 269 EV is just too hard -- too many things have to go right. The race has tightened since a few months ago, but that was expected. Obama +1.5-2 in the popular vote looks likely and from there Romney can't really get the coalition of states together to win.

Here's today's simulation run from 538. The blue lines represent simulations where Obama has 270+ EV, and the red lines are where he came out with 269 or fewer EV (romney wins ties because of the House). As you can see it's not looking too good for Romney.

October 24th, 2012 at 2:19:35 PM permalink
rdw4potus
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 10
Posts: 147
Quote: Juyemura
Does the Gallup poll take into consideration voters who have already sent in their ballots by mail?


That's a really good question. NO, the poll doesn't take early voting into account. In fact, they can't knowingly poll someone who's already voted. In just about every jurisdiction, it's illegal to exit-poll before election day. So the current polls capture all of Romney's post-debate momentum, but none of Obama's early-voting advantage. That creates an interesting effect in states like IA and NC where early voting is so common, but the debates have had a larger-than-average impact on polling results.
I'm not wearing any pants, film at 11
October 24th, 2012 at 4:22:09 PM permalink
AcesAndEights
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 6
Posts: 351
Quote: sodawater
Yes, it's basically over... <snip>

Just thought I'd warn you, in case you didn't read the rules carefully, that you're not supposed to post here while you're suspended at WoV (as per #15). However, they obviously forgot to suspend you over here,
"You think I'm joking." -EvenBob
October 24th, 2012 at 4:24:00 PM permalink
FarFromVegas
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 3
Posts: 121
Quote: AcesAndEights
Just thought I'd warn you, in case you didn't read the rules carefully, that you're not supposed to post here while you're suspended at WoV (as per #15). However, they obviously forgot to suspend you over here,


I thought he was supposed to get out of jail over there today, but the wardens have been too busy over here to let him out over there.
This space for rent
October 24th, 2012 at 6:48:34 PM permalink
deadrats18
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 2
Posts: 24
Quote: AcesAndEights
Just thought I'd warn you, in case you didn't read the rules carefully, that you're not supposed to post here while you're suspended at WoV (as per #15). However, they obviously forgot to suspend you over here,


Nobody like a snitch.
October 26th, 2012 at 1:31:37 AM permalink
MonkeyMonkey
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 0
Posts: 111
I can't wait for it to be officially over.
World's most discriminating Kool-Aid connoisseur
October 26th, 2012 at 3:18:43 AM permalink
johnnyq
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1
Posts: 29
Lots of variables in how polls are conducted.

IE

Random, likely voters, percent of republicans
vs democrats vs independents contacted,
cell vs home phones vs robo-calls.

The only poll that matters is the big one
held on that Tuesday in November.
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