Malaysian Jet

At this point speculating on what happened is like looking in the dark for a black cat one knows is there. Speculating on whether it was terrorism is like looking in the dark for a black cat that may not be there.

MId-air accidents are rather rare (most happen on take-off or landing). Some have been very odd indeed, like the Turkish DC-10 which lost part of the fuselage due to a badly designed door locking mechanis. Or the Hawaiian airliner which lost half the fuselage to metal fatigue (but only one casualty). Somethign really odd may ahve happened here. maybe it was struck by a meteorite. Stranger thigns ahve happened.

But thus far all we know is we don't know what happened.

So obvious is that the Malaysian government is over its head in trying to piece together the data and facts from the crash. You have the Chinese looking in one place with the Americans looking in the other, trusting the information that the engines communicated for hours after the signal and going in the only direction possible and also using the tip from the Malaysian military. Why the Chinese is not acting on the same information is unclear.

If true, what happened in the hours that the plane was still in the air after the transponder failed or was turned off. If it was a failure electronically and the plane couldn't communicate yet was functional, why wouldn't the pilot just had landed the plane or at least put it over land where it could be picked up by radar? And it were a hijacking, it is probably true that the hijackers would not have known that simply turning off the transponder would have made it invisible to civilian air craft. And once again, to what end?

So, then there some kind of catastrophic communications and avionics failure at altitude. The aircraft lost its oxygen supply, or was depressurized, and just drifted on autopilot until it ran out of fuel. In any case, the pilots were incapacitated from near the point of time that the transponder went off. Think Helios 522. But that pilot was able to radio a mayday first.

I think the Americans will find the plane.

I would say that the hijackers (if there were any) probably did know to turn off the transponders. It's pretty common information, and a very simple cockpit instrument to operate. It says "off", "on", "mode C", and "ident" on a dial, and has 4 wheels where you dial in your assigned code. Doesn't look like anything else.

The rest of what you say I think is all plausible and possible. I also think the Americans will find the plane, possibly with the help of the NSA, which may have information they're not admitting to.

The main problem is with the lying of the Malaysan government and the lack of civilian authority over their military.

There is an alternate transponder a pilot can select... if he is alive. I can think of no reason a pilot would voluntarily turn off the transponder except a massive electronic problem wherein every conceivable circuit breaker was being pulled. A hijacker might turn it off.

If there is a major electronic problem, the rule is still Aviate, Navigate, Communicate. Grabbing the radio to scream dense smoke in cockpit, burning plastic dripping everywhere, my balls are on fire won't help them Aviate since they are losing vision and instruments and their attention is a bit distracted but it would alert ATC who might at least start broadcasting "your heading is now xxx".

Its just that we keep getting artfully worded nonsense from the civilians and unsubstantiated but contradictory claims from the military. Right now... if a Little Green Man from Mars walked up to the microphones, I would tend to believe him over everyone else based on their track record. Heck, if a congenital liar walked up to the microphone, I would tend to believe him over everyone else.

A hypoxic jerk on the controls might have altered their course or an intentional turn might have been initiated just prior to succumbing to the hypoxia, but cabin pressure and cockpit pressure are two different things and so are their oxygen systems.

We keep hearing about ACARS... it was working, it was only sending "pings" it was on "standby" it was off.
We keep hearing about radar tapes but we don't see any radar tapes being shown on the briefing screen.

We keep hearing about North, South, East and West ... but taking some woman to bed and boxing the compass with her seems just about the best way of finding that airplane. Wait until you collapse in utter exhaustion and then send the search craft in the direction she is then facing. This method has certain obvious advantages: it doesn't rely on anything the Malayian idiots are saying.

Quote: Fleastiff

The main problem is with the lying of the Malaysan government and the lack of civilian authority over their military.

There is an alternate transponder a pilot can select... if he is alive. I can think of no reason a pilot would voluntarily turn off the transponder except a massive electronic problem wherein every conceivable circuit breaker was being pulled. A hijacker might turn it off.

If there is a major electronic problem, the rule is still Aviate, Navigate, Communicate. Grabbing the radio to scream dense smoke in cockpit, burning plastic dripping everywhere, my balls are on fire won't help them Aviate since they are losing vision and instruments and their attention is a bit distracted but it would alert ATC who might at least start broadcasting "your heading is now xxx".

Its just that we keep getting artfully worded nonsense from the civilians and unsubstantiated but contradictory claims from the military. Right now... if a Little Green Man from Mars walked up to the microphones, I would tend to believe him over everyone else based on their track record. Heck, if a congenital liar walked up to the microphone, I would tend to believe him over everyone else.

A hypoxic jerk on the controls might have altered their course or an intentional turn might have been initiated just prior to succumbing to the hypoxia, but cabin pressure and cockpit pressure are two different things and so are their oxygen systems.

We keep hearing about ACARS... it was working, it was only sending "pings" it was on "standby" it was off.
We keep hearing about radar tapes but we don't see any radar tapes being shown on the briefing screen.

We keep hearing about North, South, East and West ... but taking some woman to bed and boxing the compass with her seems just about the best way of finding that airplane. Wait until you collapse in utter exhaustion and then send the search craft in the direction she is then facing. This method has certain obvious advantages: it doesn't rely on anything the Malayian idiots are saying.

You're on a tear this morning, Flea! Lol..

Wasn't the LOST island somewhere around where the Gulf of Thailand? No wonder nobody can find that plane.

Quote: beachbumbabs

You're on a tear this morning, Flea! Lol..

Yup!! Had a fourteen year old female in bed with me last night and this morning she let me sleep late before she demanded I get up and feed her a can of tuna fish.

My current theory [bearing in mind no one cares][g]

The pilots did this. They intended to fly into a building a la 911 [I think there are big ones around there]. They either screwed it up or chickened out [why waste all that fuel by just going somewhere, say Indonesia, and plotting something there?] . Having fouled it up, they decided to settle for committing suicide and killing all the passengers [they dove the plane into the ocean].

Quote: Wizard

Wasn't the LOST island somewhere around where the Gulf of Thailand? No wonder nobody can find that plane.

You went where I was thinking....

This continues to get more muddled.

So, the Americans claim that the plane was sending out a ping via Boeing, while Rolls Royce indicated that they did not receive any data after the aircraft lost contact and the NAV was disabled.

This leads me to believe that the engines sank or exploded before the fuselage which enabled the Boeing system to send out pings while the RR (engine data) did not. If all statements are true, then this is the only possibility.

The search area, if all statements are true should be within a circle comprised of the last communications point before the NAV was disabled and the time interval of the data point that RR should have received but didn't.

So, for example, if RR got a ping at 1:00am with the next one scheduled at 1:30 (but not received) and the last communication from the plane was 1:21am, then a search within about 9 minutes of the last position would be prudent (about 90nm).

The Rolls Royce engine pings are key to this. A lack of engine communications to Rolls Royce combined with the existence of pings detected by Boeing are key.