China vs Taiwan

Quote: odiousgambit

I remember when Vietnam delivered a humiliating defeat for China when the latter tried an incursion into the former, this right after the Vietnam war ended. China surely remembers too, ha ha, and it's one more thing that makes me thing they will be all bluster and no action when it comes to Taiwan until there are much better prospects

As for attacking Russia, I can't wrap my mind around that

If you look at the history if Chinese warfare their doctrine has aways been to make it appear they are attacking something to occupy opposition but then go in a completely different direction. This goes all the way back to Sun Tzu.

Quote: DRich

China could definitely take Taiwan but it would be bloody and expensive even if the U.S> did not get in. The problem for China is not knowing of the U.S. will jump in. They will need to attack Philippines and Japan if they want to stop the closest U.S. troops but that would then guarantee U.S. involvement.

Germany couldn't invade England, and the English Channel is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest. The Strait of Taiwan is much wider, and much better defended. And Taiwan will have US and Allied help. And Taiwan would sabotage TSMC. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would decimate the world economy, and both Taiwanese and Chinese products would be unavailable. Which is why, as a hedge, the buyers of Taiwanese and Chinese good should find additional suppliers in other countries...just in case.

It's better for the Chinese to just yap a lot about Taiwan, but do nothing about it and continue to supply the rest of the world with Chinese manufactured goods. Much cheaper and much better for the Chinese economy. It's also better for China to cut a deal for Russian oil, natural gas and other minerals instead of mounting a cross border invasion of Russian Manchuria. Far cheaper and lessens the prospect of a nuke dropping on Xi's head.

Quote: missedhervee

Query: if China invades Taiwan will the Taiwanese blow up all their chip mfg. facilities to prevent them from falling into their enemy's clutches?

Since you posted this….. it’s why I have sold some of my TSM as it continuously rises! Not so much that they’d be blown up, but possibly be ‘nationalized’ by the mainland Chinese government.

Quote: odiousgambit

I remember when Vietnam delivered a humiliating defeat for China when the latter tried an incursion into the former, this right after the Vietnam war ended. China surely remembers too, ha ha, and it's one more thing that makes me thing they will be all bluster and no action when it comes to Taiwan until there are much better prospects

As for attacking Russia, I can't wrap my mind around that

In the past China has not done well invading. Consider in Korea their tactic was mostly just send human waves. It is doubtful they have mastered navel tactics for an invasion.

Although China's military is no longer Chinese Junks with WW2 machine guns they haven't really been tested in recent times.

Why would they need to invade?

Rain down missiles from afar.

Quote: missedhervee

Why would they need to invade?

Rain down missiles from afar.

I think it would definitely start with remote attacks but best case for China is to have boots on the ground before other countries will get materially involved. I m not convinced U.S. will automatically get involved in the war. The first steps the U.S. would take is a naval blockade on China. That could lead to war but might not.

Quote: missedhervee

Why would they need to invade?

Rain down missiles from afar.

you always need boots on the ground

Quote: odiousgambit

you always need boots on the ground

Most of the time, even when things are mostly flattened, (short of an atom bomb), there are still pockets of resistance that have to be taken care of by ground troops.