China vs Taiwan

Is China vs Taiwan just a feign right now by China? My gut says that China will make a move on Russia before Taiwan. That Eastern seacoast of Russia is looking very tempting right now. China is helping Russia to extend the war with Ukraine because they know it will continue to weaken Russia. China wants Manchuria and all the oil in that area. I predict Russia will move on Russia before it tries to take Taiwan.

Quote: DRich

Is China vs Taiwan just a feign right now by China? My gut says that China will make a move on Russia before Taiwan. That Eastern seacoast of Russia is looking very tempting right now. China is helping Russia to extend the war with Ukraine because they know it will continue to weaken Russia. China wants Manchuria and all the oil in that area. I predict Russia will move on Russia before it tries to take Taiwan.

It would make no sense for China to act hostile to Russia. It's cheaper just to buy Russian oil and natural resources at a discount than to invade and occupy Russian Manchuria or the Russian Far East. Russia has also made it crystal clear that they won't even try to repel a Chinese invasion into Russia, but that Russia will just nuke China in response.

Quote: GenoDRPh

It would make no sense for China to act hostile to Russia. It's cheaper just to buy Russian oil and natural resources at a discount than to invade and occupy Russian Manchuria or the Russian Far East. Russiaieve they would use nukes to defend it. has also made it crystal clear that they won't even try to repel a Chinese invasion into Russia, but that Russia will just nuke China in response.

Remember China used to control Manchuria and they would love to have it back. More Chinese people live in many of those areas more than Russians. I think the Chinese could take a good part of that area without Russia even fighting for it. The Russian army is so beaten down they couldn't even fight China. I don't believe they would even use nukes to defend it.

Years ago I read that lots of Chinese live in Russia borderlands but never saw any other proof, though the place I read it is highly reliable. It is possible that China could buy Russian land like the USA did with Mexican and French lands. But China has peaked and is entering demographic decline, said decline will soon be severe.

Quote: DRich

Remember China used to control Manchuria and they would love to have it back. More Chinese people live in many of those areas more than Russians. I think the Chinese could take a good part of that area without Russia even fighting for it. The Russian army is so beaten down they couldn't even fight China. I don't believe they would even use nukes to defend it.

Russia wouldn't fight it, because they know they can't. Their forces are battle weary and depleted from Ukraine. Putin and Xi both know this. Putin and Xi both also know that a Chinese cross-border invasion means a couple of nukes lobbed on top of Xi's head and one or two more at Beijing.

Historically, Russia valued land as a means of ensuring national security. 'Tis why they curried favor with Belarus, invaded Ukraine, causing trouble in Moldova and bitterly oppose NATO's eastward expansion. That's also why they will defend the Russian Far East with nukes as the primary means of counter offensive.

Quote: AZDuffman

Years ago I read that lots of Chinese live in Russia borderlands but never saw any other proof, though the place I read it is highly reliable. It is possible that China could buy Russian land like the USA did with Mexican and French lands. But China has peaked and is entering demographic decline, said decline will soon be severe.

If you mean Chinese citizens, I doubt it. If you mean ethnic "Chinese", like Han or other people's of Far East Asian genetic descent, there are lots and lots of them.

Quote: DRich

I predict Russia will move on Russia before it tries to take Taiwan.

wow , quite a prediction

I've seen scenarios that explain how Taiwan would be no pushover in a conventional war, a second Ukraine War might be the result of Chineses attempts to take it. Plus Taiwan is a "threshold nuclear power" ... China would have to factor in the possibility that it would turn into a nuclear war in "in a scenario involving an imminent and existential threat to the Taiwanese state's survival" the same as is often said of Israel

Quote: odiousgambit

wow , quite a prediction

I've seen scenarios that explain how Taiwan would be no pushover in a conventional war, a second Ukraine War might be the result of Chineses attempts to take it. Plus Taiwan is a "threshold nuclear power" ... China would have to factor in the possibility that it would turn into a nuclear war in "in a scenario involving an imminent and existential threat to the Taiwanese state's survival" the same as is often said of Israel

China could definitely take Taiwan but it would be bloody and expensive even if the U.S> did not get in. The problem for China is not knowing of the U.S. will jump in. They will need to attack Philippines and Japan if they want to stop the closest U.S. troops but that would then guarantee U.S. involvement.

Query: if China invades Taiwan will the Taiwanese blow up all their chip mfg. facilities to prevent them from falling into their enemy's clutches?

I remember when Vietnam delivered a humiliating defeat for China when the latter tried an incursion into the former, this right after the Vietnam war ended. China surely remembers too, ha ha, and it's one more thing that makes me thing they will be all bluster and no action when it comes to Taiwan until there are much better prospects

As for attacking Russia, I can't wrap my mind around that