Former slave states

It's not exactly news that many of the former slave-owning states lean Republican today. It's one of the great historical ironies that the Democratic party founder was a slave owner, and even up until the 1920's the Democrats would not permit black people to attend their conventions. The Republican party was founded by Abraham Lincoln.

These four former confederate states voted for the Democratic candidate only one time in the last 12 elections, and that was for Jimmy Carter in 1976. Other than that exception it has been straight Republican from Nixon in 1972 to Trump in 2016.

Alabama
Mississippi
South Carolina
Texas

What distinguishes the next 5 former slave-owning states is they are not die-hard Republican states, but what could be termed bellwether states. They voted for the winning candidate in the previous 9 elections before Obama ran in 2008. That means they voted Democrat for Jimmy Carter once in 1976 and voted Democrat for Bill Clinton twice in 1992 and 1996. They voted for Nixon in 1972, Reagan in 1980 and 1984, George HW Bush in 1988, and George W Bush in 2000 and 2004. In other words, they followed the nationwide trend if it was Republican or Democratic.All five of these states were big slave-owning states (although Kentucky and Missouri were not part of the confederacy.

Arkansas
Louisiana
Kentucky
Missouri
Tennessee

But when it came to Barack Obama they broke with the national consensus and voted for the Republican candidate both times (2008 and 2012). All five of these states returned to Trump in 2016.

How should we interpret these results?

Quote: Pacomartin

How should we interpret these results?

I do not think slavery has anything to do with anything now. True for a generation or more the Democrats there were mad that a Republican freed their slaves, but a couple generational shifts since then have elapsed. Today it is more just about places that do not like being told what to do from someone in DC.

I agree with AZD in that I don’t think these stats mean very much.

The political spectrum has shifted so much throughout the years that it’s pretty much pointless to compare Democrat/Republicans today with Democrats/Republicans of 50+ years ago.

You might get some shocked responses from a hardcore Liberal if you told them their party started out as the Democratic-Republican Party and vehemently opposed a strong federal government.

You might get some shocked responses from a hardcore Conservative if you told them their views actually align with Classical Liberalism more than anything.

My point is, Liberal/Conservative, Left/Right, Democrat/Republican are all super relative to the political climate at the time. Comparing the schools of thought throughout different time periods is fun, but it’s apples to oranges, the words simply don’t mean the same things.

This list is missing quite a few slave holding states.

I no longer understand what the definition of racism is Paco. What definition of racism do you want to use for your poll?

Quote: gamerfreak

You might get some shocked responses from a hardcore Conservative if you told them their views actually align with Classical Liberalism more than anything.

(Quote clipped, relevance)

Libertarian views line up the most with Classical Liberalism, not Conservative ones.

Quote: Gandler

This list is missing quite a few slave holding states.

Yes it is certainly missing
North Carolina
Georgia
Virginia
Florida

I tried to isolate the lists to one of two categories, slaveholding states that always or early always vote Republican, and states that always vote for the winner (9 elections in a row).
The states that always vote Republican don't care who is running on the Democratic ticket. Bellwether states are open to some Democrats (Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, but not Barack Obama).

Quote: kenarman

I no longer understand what the definition of racism is Paco. What definition of racism do you want to use for your poll?

Perhaps "racism" is a bad word to use because it often means an overt prejudice. How about "racial sensitivity". For instance, I enjoyed listening to Jesse Jackson speak in his campaigns in 1984 and 1988, but at the time I could not imagine him mounting a successful campaign for POTUS. I didn't hate the man, but in the 1980s I still couldn't imagine a black man as President. To be fair, in the 80's I couldn't imagine a man like Bill Clinton, with no military experience being POTUS either.

Quote: Pacomartin

Yes it is certainly missing
North Carolina
Georgia
Virginia
Florida

I tried to isolate the lists to one of two categories, slaveholding states that always or early always vote Republican, and states that always vote for the winner (9 elections in a row).
The states that always vote Republican don't care who is running on the Democratic ticket. Bellwether states are open to some Democrats (Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, but not Barack Obama).

Perhaps "racism" is a bad word to use because it often means an overt prejudice. How about "racial sensitivity". For instance, I enjoyed listening to Jesse Jackson speak in his campaigns in 1984 and 1988, but at the time I could not imagine him mounting a successful campaign for POTUS. I didn't hate the man, but in the 1980s I still couldn't imagine a black man as President. To be fair, in the 80's I couldn't imagine a man like Bill Clinton, with no military experience being POTUS either.

I think it's also relevant that Obama lost Missouri by little more than a rounding error (2008). My take on Missouri is that many people, independent of the color of candidates, would automatically be predisposed to McCain by virtue of him being a war veteran. Limited sample size, but I've lived in four different states for a year or more, and I'd consider Missouri the most overtly patriotic of those. This was true even though I lived in/around the second-most populated city in the state.

Quote: Mission146

(Quote clipped, relevance)

Libertarian views line up the most with Classical Liberalism, not Conservative ones.

For sure, but I think modern conservatism is closer to classical liberalism than modern liberalism is to classical liberalism.

Sometimes it seems amazing what people spend. The 2012 Presidential Election cost $2.4 billion between Democrats and Republicans. Mitt Romney expected to win. In the end, Obama only lost North Carolina and Indiana as the only two states that he had won in 2008.

But the funny thing is that polls in both those states said Obama was going to lose in 2012 even before the Republican candidate was chosen. These states tend to lean strongly Republican, but voted for Obama in a burst of exuberance. North Carolina had only voted for one Democratic candidate, Jimmy Carter in the last half century. Indiana's vote for Barack Obama in 2008 was their lone vote for a Democratic candidate in the same half century.

The 2016 Presidential Election cost $1.2 billion between Democrats and Republicans. You might say it was money better spent because it actually produced an unexpected result.