Worst possible news for Boeing

Quote: Wizard

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I've heard by mile, flying is safer, but by journey, flying is. I would argue that "by mile" is the appropriate measurement.

I would argue that the appropriate metric for which is safer should be 'per hour at risk". Don't know if that stat is available or not.

Quote: odiousgambit

trivia question: which has more fatalities per journey, traveling by airline or by car?

Which has more serious injuries per journey, traveling by airline or by car?

Air travel has a lot more all or nothing kind of accidents than a car.

Quote: Pacomartin

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/u-s-pilots-flying-737-max-werent-told-about-new-automatic-systems-change-linked-to-lion-air-crash/
The MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) was installed in the new B737 Max is designed to activate only “during steep turns with elevated load factors and during flaps up flight at airspeeds approaching stall” and that it is “commanded by the Flight Control computer using input data from sensors and other airplane systems.”
A B737-Max-8 has a CFM International LEAP-1B, with 69 in Fan diameter and Thrust (× 2)26,786–29,317 lbf
A B737-800 has a CFM56-7B, with 61 in Fan diameter and thrust options of 24,000–26,000–27,000 lbf
The MCAS was deemed necessary because the more powerful engines made a stall more likely. It does not appear to be part of pilot training, and there are indications that it failed in the Lion Air crash repeatedly forcing the nose down since the sensor believed (incorrectly) that the plane was in a stall.

Slashdot reports that Southwest Airlines Honcho announces SWA will purchase hundreds of the planes.

Quote: Fleastiff

Slashdot reports that Southwest Airlines Honcho announces SWA will purchase hundreds of the planes.

Do you mean over and above the 280 they ordered before the accidents? Do you have a link?
150 13. Dec. 2011
30 13. May. 2013
20 4. Nov. 2013
40 20. Dec. 2017
40 29. Mar. 2018
---
280

www.billmurphyjr.com
Chairman and CEO at Dallas Chamber of Commerce. Not specific as to numbers or timing or new/old orders.

That link means nothing, but as SWA is already made the largest MAX order in the world, they are unlikely to stop now.

The fourth USA airline that ordered the MAX (behind SWA, UA, AA) is Alaska Airlines. Alaska Airlines only ordered 32 and has had no deliveries. A somewhat surprising article speculates that Alaska should take advantage of an expected willingness on Boeing to sell at a discount, once the plane is flying again. They should make a big order.

Alaska Airlines May Order a Ton of Boeing 737 MAX Jets in 2019

I was speculating that maybe they should hold off until a few months go by without an accident.

As for the other 7 mainline airlines in the USA:
Allegiant Air, Frontier Airlines ,JetBlue, and Spirit Airlines do not fly Boeing jets, and
Delta Air Lines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Sun Country Airlines have not ordered the MAX.

Quote: Pacomartin

That link means nothing. . . .

Ofcourse not. Its a chamber of commerce event. No one there knows anything about prior orders or wants to. Even the reporter is clearly unaware of the situation.

Airbus and Boeing have both accumulated about 15000+ orders for comparable jets over the life of their programs. The B737 program is 20 years older than the A320 program, but Boeing didn't see that many jets in those 20 years.

Airbus single aisle jet orders over life of company
536 A220 Bombardier - Very small 2 engine
1,601 A318&A319 - Small 2 engine
8,921 A320 - Medium 2 engine
4,117 A321 - Large 2 engine <==================== Airbus has big advantage of Boeing in this category
15,175


Boeing single aisle B737 jet orders over life of company
5,119 737 MAX <==================== Some fraction Boeing competition against A321
505 737-900ER <==================== Boeing competition against A321
52 737-900 <==================== Boeing competition against A321
4,991 737-800
1,128 737-700
1,113 737-300
991 737-200
486 737-400
389 737-500
157 737-800A
104 737-200C
69 737-600
19 737-T43A
30 737-100
22 737-700C
14 737-700W
121 BBJ
23 BBJ2
7 BBJ3
15,340 Total Result

Besides being bad form to do it in public you would think that Airbus would be celebrating in private over the collapse of the MAX program. But in reality there is concern about negative ramifications to Airbus.

For starters, even if Airbus receives a bunch of new orders, they can't increase production without huge capital investments which may make them vulnerable in the long run.

Airbus's biggest fear is that a desperate Boeing will use the B797 program that they keep delyaing to develop a true competitor to the A321neo which is the cash cow for Airbus

Entire problem with mcas max8 planes may be traceable to Boeing push to outsource coding to cheaper offshore contractors, according to slashot.