Democratic Nominee in 2020

Quote: Evenbob

No, what's shocking is a well
educated person like you
(and I'm getting to the point
of demanding proof of your
education) would think he
may 'very well' win. What
do you base this on. His
burning up the campaign
trail? The huge excitement
he generates in his base?
All the well answered questions
he gives to the press every
day? How the betting odds of
him winning are going thru
the roof?

You must base your wise opinion
on something, please enlighten
us.

You are kidding, right? You are unaware of polls showing Biden likely to win? You are unaware of betting odds showing it a pretty even race? You are unaware of the DEEP HATRED a large swath of America has for Trump? You are unaware that the Democrats START with easy wins in Cali, NY, Mass, Illinois, NJ, Washington.... I must have missed a few that are 99+% going for Biden, or potted plant, or whoever is the Dem nominee. This ain't Idaho and North Dakota. The fact that you can't see a path for Biden, senile and all, to win the Presidency says more about you than it says about the multiple paths available.

As far as huge excitement.... I'd say anti-Trump excitement far surpasses pro-Trump excitement. Just look at the riots and looting. You think those are Trump supporters?

Look Bob... one of my sons is as anti-Trump as they come... yes, TDS..... But he will admit how embarrassing it is that the Dems nominated a nearly senile old man, but he will still vote for him, as he is NOT Trump. 40 something percent of the US considers Trump 'an existential threat' or something like that. I consider the Democrat/liberal agenda a far greater threat.

Bob, in summary, tell us that you think that the poll numbers favor Biden. Tell us that Trump voters lie to pollsters. tell us people don't want to vote for Biden in obvious decline. But, please, don't tell us you can't see a way for Biden to win, flaws and all.

Quote: SOOPOO

Bob, in summary, tell us that you think that the poll numbers favor Biden.

So what. It's an absolute proven
fact that 15% of likely Trump
voters lie to pollsters. As was
proven in 2016. So take 15 points
off Biden and give it to Trump.

This explains everything. How
Hillary could hide all summer of
16, be seen being chucked into
a van like a side of beef, have
a totally not fired up base while
Trump was having record breaking
rallies, and all the while polls had
Hillary in a landslide. It made no
sense. Now that we know the polls
are totally unreliable, it's obvious
Trump was in the lead all of 2016,
just like he is now. You'll see.

Quote: Evenbob

in a landslide. It made no
sense. Now that we know the polls
are totally unreliable, it's obvious
Trump was in the lead all of 2016,
just like he is now. You'll see.

Maybe. Maybe not. I'm wondering why a smart guy like you, who has all the answers... didn't monetize this knowledge. Golly, you could have gotten around 2-1 odds betting on Trump a few months back.

Quote: SOOPOO

Maybe. Maybe not.

No maybe about it. You'll see.
All the clues are in 2016 and
it's all happening again this
time. How on earth did Trump
win such a stunning victory
when all those polls had Hillary
winning right till the end. Why,
it was Russia Russia Russia of
course. LOLOLOL

Another indicator for an expected Biden win, is the surging stock market. Despite bankruptcies and big impending October layoffs, institutional investors are already pricing in a Biden win, which will create the massive debt expansion they want to see.

Quote: Evenbob

So what. It's an absolute proven
fact that 15% of likely Trump
voters lie to pollsters. As was
proven in 2016.

This explains everything. How
Hillary could hide all summer of
16, be seen being chucked into
a van like a side of beef, have
a totally not fired up base while
Trump was having record breaking
rallies, and all the while polls had
Hillary in a landslide. It made no
sense. Now that we know the polls
are totally unreliable, it's obvious
Trump was in the lead all of 2016,
just like he is now. You'll see.

This is hilarious. It really is 2012 all over again. THE POLLS ARE SKEWED!!!

“ So take 15 points
off Biden and give it to Trump.”

Insane. lol

Quote: Tanko

institutional investors are already pricing in a Biden win,

Yeah, no, not so much..

"JPMorgan Chase & Co. informed investors on Monday that they should prepare for rising odds that President Donald Trump could win reelection in 2020.
Company strategist Marko Kolanovic indicated that although most investors were preparing for a Joe Biden win, they should be aware of the growing trends in Trump’s favor. Biden still leads Trump by a slim margin in many polls, but Kolanovic warned that poll bias could miss a five to ten point unseen gap for Trump."

"poll bias could miss a five to ten point unseen gap"..
Everybody is now aware that the polls are totally
unreliable and Trump voters are lying in them. They
won't be taken by surprise like the were 4 years ago.

I don't think it's sufficient to call (all) polls, "Skewed," or, "Not skewed."

There are three general criteria and a few specific ones that I would want to know in making a determination of how strong I consider a poll:

1.) Sample Size---Obvious.

2.) Who is Polled?

-Location
-Demographics
-All Respondents v. Registered Voters v. Likely Voters (in that order of preference)

3.) How the Poll is Conducted:

-Contact Method (Internet, Cell Phones, Cell + Landline, Landline Only)

-Order of Choices, or are the Choices semi-randomized to be an equal number of names, "On top."

-If a full question is asked, how is the question phrased?

-Do the polls list other options specifically, a third-party option generally, or does the pollster make it a binary choice?

-Are all respondents unique, or might we be choosing, "Same respondents," to get a result that we believe is favorable?

***So, some polls will inherently favor one candidate over another based on a combination of these factors. For instance, a landline phone poll would favor Trump as such a poll would skew older (more landline owners) and, therefore, skew Republican. Cellphone only probably favors Biden. Etc. Etc. you get the idea.

The polls are also a snapshot and two months is a long time. Remember, the, "Polling shock," in 2016 was not that Trump won the PV...because he didn't...but that it was even close. I don't even think any of the competitive states were outside of the margin of error--which exists for a reason. Granted, the space within the margin of error generally skewed towards Trump, particularly in swing states...or, at least, most noticeably...but there's a huge difference between that and saying that the polls are fifteen points off.

I don't think it's sufficient to call (all) polls, "Skewed," or, "Not skewed." Mission

It's the truth, all are skewed
and unreliable if people
being polled are lying. And
it's a proven fact they lie.
Which makes all polls
unreliable and useless.

My best guess is if Biden
is ahead by 5 points, Trump
is the one who's really
ahead by 15 to 20 points.
Especially in minority polls.
They admittedly lie to pollsters
because if there's even a hint
you support Trump you get
bricks thrown at your house.
You aren't about to tell some
stranger on the phone the truth.

Quote: Evenbob

I don't think it's sufficient to call (all) polls, "Skewed," or, "Not skewed." Mission

It's the truth, all are skewed
and unreliable if people
being polled are lying. And
it's a proven fact they lie.
Which makes all polls
unreliable and useless.

My best guess is if Biden
is ahead by 5 points, Trump
is the one who's really
ahead by 15 to 20 points.
Especially in minority polls.
They admittedly lie to pollsters
because if there's even a hint
you support Trump you get
bricks thrown at your house.
You aren't about to tell some
stranger on the phone the truth.

I think Biden will win by 97.8 points. Is pulling numbers out of thin air what passes for an academically honest conversation around here?

Based on 2016, I expect the result for Trump to be better than the polls indicate for all of the reasons you mentioned. In fact, I'll be surprised---but not floored---if he outright wins the popular vote (though I do doubt it).

But, 15 points? I'd offer a bet, except, I already know that you categorically don't take them.