is Trump trying to lose?

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August 16th, 2016 at 12:25:49 PM permalink
reno
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 58
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Is Trump trying to lose the election on purpose? As conspiracy theories go, this is no longer a taboo topic to be avoided in polite company. "I don’t have any hard proof, it may be nothing, but is this the conduct of someone who is trying to win?" said Republican Florida Representative Carlos Curbelo.

Maybe he's just incompentent. Or maybe he's just plain crazy. But let's examine the evidence that Trump is deliberately throwing the election:

Exhibit A: His advertising buys. NBC News is reporting that during the general election campaign Trump has spent zero dollars on television commercials. Zero. It's not like he has no money in the bank: he raised $82 million in July, and still has $74 million on hand. Green Party candidate Jill Stein has spent more money on TV ads than Trump.

Exhibit B: He's wasting precious time campaigning in deep blue states. Why is Trump wasting time chasing Maine's 4 electoral votes? (Maine hasn't voted Republican since 1988.)

Exhibit C: Even when Hillary is having a no good very bad day, Trump goes out of his way to change the subject. On July 5, when the FBI director offered some very serious criticism of Hillary, (though no indictment) Trump wanted to praise Saddam Hussein. On the Monday after Hillary's terrible performance on Fox News Sunday, Trump wanted to criticize the mother of a fallen soldier. Then on Tuesday, he threatened not to endorse Paul Ryan.

Exhibit D: Despite his history of promising to pivot, to act "presidential", he never does. He keeps saying crazy things. “As I get closer and closer to the goal, it’s going to get different,” he told Greta Van Susteren in February. “I will be changing very rapidly. I’m very capable of changing to anything I want to change to.”

Exhibit E: He has no ground game. No campaign offices in key swing state cities (see: Ohio, Cincinnati). Time is critical: it takes months of voter targeting and outreach, building up volunteer efforts on the ground and figuring out who you want to talk to; it's not the sort of thing that you cobble together in a week.

August 16th, 2016 at 12:44:09 PM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 29
Posts: 12421
I've said from day 1 of his campaign: Trump has no desire to be President.

He is an attention whore. He just wants every news program talking about him 24/7. And he has obviously succeeded there...

Is he trying to lose? I don't think so. Not consciously, at least.

While Trump has no desire to actually govern as President and do all the work that that job will entail, I suspect the desire not to be labeled a loser for the rest of his life is stronger.

I think it's just pure incompetence that he is doing so badly. He doesn't understand that Republican primary voters and the general electorate are not the same thing. What worked in the primary, is deadly for a general election campaign.
“A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman
August 16th, 2016 at 12:54:09 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
Quote: reno
Is Trump trying to lose the election on purpose? As conspiracy theories go, this is no longer a taboo topic to be avoided in polite company. "I don’t have any hard proof, it may be nothing, but is this the conduct of someone who is trying to win?" said Republican Florida Representative Carlos Curbelo.


Good point. Good questions. And good evidence.

But I don't think so.

The thing about conspiracy theories is that no large-scale conspiracy can be kept secret for long. But that's abstract. More concretely, all that you list as evidence also applies to an egotistical know-it-all who thinks he knows better than the experts. All the more so, as I've pointed out, since following his own counsel got him the GOP nomination (and that campaign will be autopsied for some time to come).
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
August 16th, 2016 at 1:29:00 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: reno
Maybe he's just incompentent. Or maybe he's just plain crazy. But let's examine the evidence that Trump is deliberately throwing the election:


I know that Romney is vilified for his 47% comment, but I think it is very difficult for most people to grasp that you can build a large base with a certain set of skills. Romney did go on to win 47.2% of the popular vote.

George H.W. Bush earned 37.4% in 1992 while Clinton won with 43.0%
George McGovern earned 37.5% in 1972
Walter Mondale earned 40.8% in 1984
Jimmy Carter earned 41.0% in 1980
Michael Dukakis earned 45.6% in 1988
Michael Dukakis lost 426 to 111 in what most people remember as a landslide election.

Actually winning an election is excruciating, and you need armies of people to give you that 1% you need. Just encouraging people to vote at all is a big job.

He may not be able to grasp the concept that 47% could still get you clobbered.
August 16th, 2016 at 3:33:26 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
Quote: Pacomartin
George H.W. Bush earned 37.4% in 1992 while Clinton won with 43.0%
George McGovern earned 37.5% in 1972
Walter Mondale earned 40.8% in 1984
Jimmy Carter earned 41.0% in 1980
Michael Dukakis earned 45.6% in 1988


It seems there's a trend where GOP losers lose worse than Democratic losers.

I wonder how Ford did...

But mostly I wonder how badly Trump will do. Could he get below 35%? How about under 30%? That would mean a crushing defeat for the GOP, as likely they'd lose the Senate as well (here's hoping).

They deserve a crushing defeat. The more humiliating the better. Something that will teach them they can't continue running on prejudice, either blatant or disguised.
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
August 16th, 2016 at 3:55:44 PM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 188
Posts: 18631
Quote: Nareed
They deserve a crushing defeat. The more humiliating the better. Something that will teach them they can't continue running on prejudice, either blatant or disguised.


I'm still cautious; it's still too early.

For instance, the best thing that could happen to Trump is he goes into the debates with super low expectations. It's actually the best thing for any candidate.
Even if he says nothing sensible, one memorable smackdown can make some perceive a win for that debate.

I would still prefer Hillary's numbers to peak around 2 weeks before the election. I don't want people to sense fatigue.

Yeah, maybe I'm too cautious, but it still seems too far away to me.
You believe in an invisible god, and dismiss people who say they are trans? Really?
August 16th, 2016 at 4:20:20 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
Quote: rxwine
Even if he says nothing sensible, one memorable smackdown can make some perceive a win for that debate.


True, but whom do you think is more likely to say something stupid or insensitive that can be smacked down on the spot?

Hell, Trump already has.

Remember when Gore told Quayle at the start of the '92 VP debates he wouldn't compare him to Jack Kennedy? That was a quip four years in the making. Clinton can tell Trump something like "Don't worry Donald. I'm recording the game on TiVo and you're welcome to come and watch it after the debate."

Also, she ought to goad him to pick a fight with the moderators. That ought to be easy.
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
August 16th, 2016 at 4:21:40 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 239
Posts: 6095
Quote: ams288
I've said from day 1 of his campaign: Trump has no desire to be President.

He is an attention whore. He just wants every news program talking about him 24/7. And he has obviously succeeded there...

Is he trying to lose? I don't think so. Not consciously, at least.

While Trump has no desire to actually govern as President and do all the work that that job will entail, I suspect the desire not to be labeled a loser for the rest of his life is stronger.

I think it's just pure incompetence that he is doing so badly. He doesn't understand that Republican primary voters and the general electorate are not the same thing. What worked in the primary, is deadly for a general election campaign.


I agree with all that. In my opinion, his run in the first place was just a publicity stunt to get attention. I don't think he is trying to lose but still trying to maximize the attention he gets. He also has already sown the seeds of a rigged election and biased media, so he'll have plenty of excuses at the ready when he does lose. I made a bet with somebody that he won't concede within x days after CNN calls the winner -- I don't recall the details.

At least this is the most entertaining election, by far, in my lifetime. I can't wait for the debates.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
August 16th, 2016 at 5:31:39 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: Nareed
It seems there's a trend where GOP losers lose worse than Democratic losers.

That is certainly true of the last 6 elections where GOP only won 2 of the 6 by very small margins. There has been a definite bias towards Democrats in the Presidential Race,even though the House slides back and forth.

Since WWII, the Democrats have been more soundly beaten.

Losing Candidate percentage of popular vote (average 43% 1948-1988; Democrats 7 losses 42%; Republicans 4 losses 45%)
1948 Thomas Dewey Republican 45.1%
1952 Adlai Stevenson Democratic 44.3%
1956 Adlai Stevenson Democratic 42.0%
1960 Richard Nixon Republican 49.55%
1964 Barry Goldwater Republican 38.5%
1968 Hubert Humphrey Democratic 42.7%
1972 George McGovern Democratic 37.5%
1976 Gerald Ford Republican 48.0%
1980 Jimmy Carter Democratic 41.0%
1984 Walter Mondale Democratic 40.6%
1988 Michael Dukakis Democratic 45.6%

Quote: FOX BUTTERFIELD. Published: November 18, 1987 in NY Times

Trump Urged To Head Gala Of Democrats
By Donald J. Trump, the New York real estate magnate and a registered Republican, has been asked by Jim Wright, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, to be the host at the 25th annual Democratic Congressional dinner in Washington in March, Congressional officials said yesterday. Representative Beryl Anthony Jr., Democrat of Arkansas, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said he and Mr. Wright visited Mr. Trump at his headquarters in Trump Tower Monday evening to extend the invitation and also suggested that Mr. Trump should consider switching parties.

Mr. Anthony, a former businessman, said he and Mr. Wright had asked Mr. Trump to serve as chairman because he projected the new image they would like the Democratic Party to have. ''He's young, dynamic, successful,'' said Mr. Anthony. In addition, Mr. Anthony insisted, ''The message Trump has been preaching is a Democratic message.'' Mr. Anthony pointed to newspaper advertisements Mr. Trump, who is 41 years old, has bought and speeches he has made in recent months in which he has called for reducing the budget deficit, working for peace in Central America and speeding up nuclear disarmament negotiations with the Soviet Union.
...

Mr. Anthony said that he did not know Mr. Trump was a Republican until the meeting Monday evening, but that Mr. Trump's party affiliation did not bother him. In recent months, he said, he had talked with a number of business leaders who had voted as Republicans but who found that ''they feel the Republican Party hasn't treated them right.'' 'They Should Be Democrats'



I wish I could find an old Doonesbury cartoon from a many years ago, where Trump is bragging about he has 38% and he hasn't even organized a campaign. The reporter says "We are a divided country, my mailman could get 38%".
August 17th, 2016 at 7:39:27 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
Quote: Pacomartin
That is certainly true of the last 6 elections where GOP only won 2 of the 6 by very small margins. There has been a definite bias towards Democrats in the Presidential Race,even though the House slides back and forth.


The GOP has a very big, very recent demographics problem. They don't appeal much to minorities. W. Bush went after the Latino vote, quite successfully. But then, for all their faults, Texas Republicans are no as hostile to Latinos as, say, California Republicans. If they were, Texas would also go blue in short order.

McCain and Romney failed singularly at this.
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
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