Trump vs Hillary 2016

Quote: TheCesspit

Just like the pollsters will have to.

Although I haven't checked it, someone told me Nate Silver still had the election within the margin of error even with a Trump win. And that was two weeks ago.

So, I think he is still not fired.

Quote: Pacomartin

The blue wall generally include those the Democrats have carried the last six election (since the 1992 election). The blue wall is 18 states + DC and 242 EC votes.

(In order of decreasing population):
California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Washington, Massachusetts, Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Vermont, as well as the District of Columbia.

The blue wall has collapsed in Wisconsin.

Quote: Pacomartin

The blue wall has collapsed in Wisconsin.

And possibly Pennsylvania.

Quote: Wizard

I don't think Clinton will win Arizona. In fact, I'll give you 2 to 1 on it. Email me if you're interested. Offer not guaranteed after 12 hours.

At least I was right about one thing.

Is anyone ever going to trust a poll in the future?

Quote: Daniel Boorstin :1961

America is living in an "age of contrivance," in which illusions and fabrications had become a dominant force in society. Public life, he said, was filled with "pseudo-events" -- staged and scripted events that were a kind of counterfeit version of actual happenings. Just as there were now counterfeit events, so, he said, there were also counterfeit people - celebrities - whose identities were being staged and scripted, to create illusions that often had no relationship to any underlying reality.

It's not often you see a country commit suicide. This year we saw two :(

Quote: Nareed

This year we saw two :(

The peso is bound to react.
1 USD = 20.0907 MXN

On Steven Colbert's show, he signed off with the statistics about the number of people who are literally "afraid" of the people in the other party.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXhFGO8R7aU

By now I don't care how it happened, but what we should do next.

Fantasies aside, Trump is going to be sworn in come January next year.

The first thing to keep in mind is he has no mandate and he didn't win the popular vote. He got the most votes, yes, but so did Bill Clinton in 92 and Bush the younger in 2000. Bush got a mandate on September 11th 2001, but also a very specific one he had to stick to (and screwed it up badly, but never mind). Clinton had to tread carefully and pick his battles, to the point he was chastised for not keeping many of his major promises. Trump will have to face this, so it's important to speak in opposition when warranted.

The second thing is that Trump doesn't understand politics, and he's a petty man with a thirst for revenge. I've no doubt his first order of business will be to intimidate the House and Senate into line, as he did with the GOP during the election. The House is a lost cause, but Senators have terms longer than political memories. Trump's intimidation shouldn't work on them. This goes for any nominations he makes for the Supreme Court, and who knows what kind of people he'll pick. No hope of Obama's last nominee being confirmed, of course... We'll see whether the GOP regrets that decision.

It's time to work on the mid-term elections, too. If Trump does as badly as expected, "his" party can lose Congress soon, rendering him a lame duck. Just remember what voters think of gridlock and shutting down the government.

The pollsters once again prove that they can't be impartial. They get their data but then tweak the model with fudge factors that are based upon their own biases. Much of the time I am not sure they are fully conscious that their bias is effecting their results.

I also wonder if this works against their own bias at the polls. Everyone knew yesterday morning that Clinton had it in the bag so not much reason to go out of your way to vote for her.

Quote: kenarman

The pollsters once again prove that they can't be impartial. They get their data but then tweak the model with fudge factors that are based upon their own biases. Much of the time I am not sure they are fully conscious that their bias is effecting their results.

I also wonder if this works against their own bias at the polls. Everyone knew yesterday morning that Clinton had it in the bag so not much reason to go out of your way to vote for her.

Was voter turn out up or down? Be interesting to see...
EDIT: Up by 4.7% across the US... very interesting.

I certainly expect there to be some effect on the 'oh, it's all over, I don't need to vote'.

Certainly interesting to see the outlier polls were better predictors. I am sure the538 will have to reassess themselves a lot... though they were within their margin or error, it's never a going to be good to get it wrong when your business is making predictions.