Trump vs Hillary 2016

LOL - Donald has a new ad out highlighting Hillary's "deplorables" comment - but it feels more like an anti-Trump ad to me:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gj7CLJbyjrk

The ad doesn't deny that Trump supporters are racist, sexist, homophobic, Islamophobic, xenophobic.... it just argues Hillary was wrong for pointing that out.

Hmmmmm.....

Did the Democrats miscalculate again?

If we look back to the early 90s, prominent Democrats were not eager to challenge Bush the elder in the 92 election. After all, he'd just won a very popular, short, well-defined war, which most Democrats in Congress had voted against, and was riding sky-high in public opinion. But this was in 1991, when serious contenders for the presidency begin to run in earnest. By the fall of that year, Bush was going down in opinion polls and he looked eminently beatable, but it was far too late to start a campaign. So long story short, a miscalculation by those better able to run put Bill Clinton in the White House (and surely made Gary Hart the angriest man in the world).

There was more to it, like the independent candidacy of an eccentric and populist Texas billionaire throwing a wrench in the works, the more so when his campaign grew erratic. And the hurricane that hit Florida, which always makes the sitting president look bad no matter what they do. A mild but persistent recession that didn't get any better. And more.

Remember in the end Clinton did not take a majority of the popular vote. He did get the most votes, more than Bush the elder, but under 50%. And that had interesting consequences as well.

Back to the near past, it's common after a two-term stretch by one party for the other party to take over. I think for this year most expected a GOP win regardless of who ran, and thus no prominent Democrats rose to challenge Clinton in her run, the way many more did in 2008. Clinton is eminently qualified for the job (extensive political experience in state and federal government, a Senate term, former Secretary of State; it doesn't get much better than that), but she's well-disliked by many, and she's associated, fairly or not, with the Clinton penchant for political scandal that plagued her husband's presidency in the 90s. IN other words, she has big negatives.

Normally she'd be rather easy to beat, depending on overall conditions in the country at the time of the campaign and election, by most candidates the Republicans could come up with.

Except the GOP came up with a candidate that appeals broadly only to a small minority of the population, is completely unqualified, is extremely incompetent as relates to campaigning, and fatally thinks he's much smarter than he is (or as the joke has it: if he were half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is). IN other words, his negatives are much worse than Clinton's.

So had just about any other Democrat run for the job, they'd be beating Trump silly( sillier) by now. Therefore the Democrats miscalculated again.

Though to be fair, anyone who'd predicted a Trump win in the GOP Primaries before they'd started, would have been laughed out of town.

Quote: Nareed

Back to the near past, it's common after a two-term stretch by one party for the other party to take over. I think for this year most expected a GOP win regardless of who ran, and thus no prominent Democrats rose to challenge Clinton in her run, the way many more did in 2008.

Well, with the obvious exception of Joe Biden, I am not sure which prominent Democratic candidates you are thinking about. There are a short list of Democratic governors, but most of them did not have national recognition. Certainly Martin Malley never got any traction.

1. California Jerry Brown
2. Colorado John W. Hickenlooper
3. Connecticut Dannel Malloy
4. Delaware Jack Markell
5. Hawaii David Ige
6. Louisiana John Bel Edwards
7. Missouri Jay Nixon
8. Montana Steve Bullock
9. New York Andrew Cuomo
10. Pennsylvania Tom Wolf
11. Vermont Peter Shumlin
12. Virginia Terry McAuliffe
13. Washington Jay Inslee
14. West Virginia Earl Ray Tomblin
15. New Hampshire Maggie Hassan
16. Oregon Kate Brown
17. Rhode Island Gina Raimondo

None of the Democratic candidates in 2008 made it past January.
Joe Biden U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009) Withdrew, January 3, 2008. Endorsed Obama
Chris Dodd U.S. Senator from Connecticut (1981–2011) Withdrew, January 3, 2008. Endorsed Obama
Bill Richardson 30th Governor of New Mexico (2003–2011) Withdrew, January 10, 2008. Endorsed Obama
Dennis Kucinich U.S. Representative for Ohio's 10th (1997–2013) Withdrew, January 23, 2008. Endorsed Obama
John Edwards U.S. Senator from North Carolina (1999–2005) Withdrew, January 30, 2008. Endorsed Obama
Mike Gravel U.S. Senator from Alaska (1969–1981) Endorsed Jesse Johnson, Joined Libertarian Party, March 25, 2008.

Quote: Pacomartin

Well, with the obvious exception of Joe Biden, I am not sure which prominent Democratic candidates you are thinking about.

None. That is, I've no idea. Surely there are a bunch of Democrats serving in the House, the Senate and in state governments?

In 2007 the narrative was for a bout between Hillary and Rudy come November 2008. We know how that turned out.

There are no hard rules, but usually no one runs against the incumbent of their own party (exceptions, I know, like Ted Kennedy running against Carter in 1979-80, and that usually signals a weak president, or a president perceived to be weak), and many hold back if the sitting VP runs for the top job (again with exceptions). But when the president reaches their two-term limit and the VP won't run, usually it's as much a free-for-all as when the other party is in the White House or finishes their two-term limit.

Then, too, most candidates get to be known during the primaries. Bill Clinton, prior to 1991, was best known, if at all, for delivering a very long speech at the 1988 Dem Convention. Outside of Texas, few knew much about Bush the younger, other than he was the son of Bush the elder. And, frankly, how well-known was Obama nationally prior to 2007?

Therefore my suspicion that such Democrats as are capable of running, decided it was a race for second place against the GOP, therefore too few bothered to run.

Talk about a gift, I still can't believe it.
The independents and those that have
yet to decide will react to this new Trump
ad. The campaign jumped on this with
both feet, it was Xmas morning all weekend.

Quote: ams288

LOL - Donald has a new ad out highlighting Hillary's "deplorables" comment - but it feels more like an anti-Trump ad to me:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gj7CLJbyjrk

The ad doesn't deny that Trump supporters are racist, sexist, homophobic, Islamophobic, xenophobic.... it just argues Hillary was wrong for pointing that out.

Hmmmmm.....

There is no need to deny anything. Have you stopped killing puppies yet?

Quote: Nareed

None. That is, I've no idea. Surely there are a bunch of Democrats serving in the House, the Senate and in state governments?

No one in the 20th century from the House has made a credible run for the Presidency, and certainly not from state Government.

In 1880 James Garfield was a member of the House, but he has just been elected to the Senate, At the 1880 Republican National Convention, Senator-elect Garfield attended as campaign manager for Secretary of the Treasury John Sherman, and gave the presidential nomination speech for him. When neither Sherman nor his rivals – Ulysses S. Grant and James G. Blaine – could get enough votes to secure the nomination, delegates chose Garfield as a compromise on the 36th ballot.

In the 1880 presidential election, Garfield conducted a low-key front porch campaign, and narrowly defeated Democrat Winfield Scott Hancock.

He is the only sitting House member to be elected president. James A. Garfield was assassinated 120 days after taking office, and died 79 days later. His time in office was the second shortest in history.

Quote: Pacomartin

No one in the 20th century from the House has made a credible run for the Presidency,

But many have run. Traditionally Senators don't do well in the primaries, either, but in 2008 two Senators slugged it out in the general election.

Rush is selling these T shirts, they're great.
I just ordered one, lol.

Quote: Evenbob

Rush is selling these T shirts, they're great.
I just ordered one, lol.

Why would you want to buy one?

Anyone who wears this in public is basically saying "I'm a racist and I'm proud of it." This is not going to help Trump. He's still going to lose.

There was a poll that showed 60% of Americans feel Trump enables racists. The "deplorables" comment was right on. The only thing she took back was "half."