What's the over/under on civilization?

Page 5 of 7« First<234567>
Poll
1 vote (8.33%)
3 votes (25%)
1 vote (8.33%)
2 votes (16.66%)
2 votes (16.66%)
1 vote (8.33%)
1 vote (8.33%)
1 vote (8.33%)

12 members have voted

March 14th, 2016 at 6:19:42 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Quote: Evenbob
Prognostications like this are extremely easy
and unproductive to come up with. Much
harder to figure is where we go from here,
into the future. That's where we'll all be
living.


I have made some predictions. Major social unrest 2020-2030. USA collapses as a united country by 2076. I will add to it. When that happens, world trade collapses and regional powers re-emerge. By then, Western nations have finished committing cultural suicide. Then the entire world represents nations like India, Brazil, and the Middle East. No middle class, no freedom, advances grind to a halt.
The President is a fink.
March 15th, 2016 at 1:21:13 AM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 146
Posts: 25010
Quote: AZDuffman
I have made some predictions. Major social unrest 2020-2030. USA collapses as a united country by 2076. I will add to it. When that happens, world trade collapses and regional powers re-emerge. By then, Western nations have finished committing cultural suicide. Then the entire world represents nations like India, Brazil, and the Middle East. No middle class, no freedom, advances grind to a halt.


LOL! Seriously, almost none of that will
happen 60 years from now. Look at the
tech advances of the last 60 years, none
it was predicted. The world is now driven
by tech advances, and since we have no
idea of the scope of these advances,
predicting is useless.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
March 15th, 2016 at 2:51:52 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Quote: Evenbob
LOL! Seriously, almost none of that will
happen 60 years from now. Look at the
tech advances of the last 60 years, none
it was predicted. The world is now driven
by tech advances, and since we have no
idea of the scope of these advances,
predicting is useless.


"Tech" has nothing to do with it. I am talking about social trends. The USSR was on the march and considered unstoppable in 1980. 12 years later it ceased to exist as a country. Western nations are all at zero internal population growth or in outright decline. All the "tech" in the world is not changing this fact.

Currently world trade happens with little issue because the US Navy patrols the seas and the USD is a store of value. Take away the USN and trade routes become less viable. The Horn of Africa turns into a paradise for pirates. China gets the ability to turn off trade to much of Asia. That is just two. Take away the USD and international trade quickly falls back to COD/barter at the port.

Socially the USA is starting to collapse and this will eventually tear the nation apart. It is easy to say "that will never happen to America!" but the USA is subject to the same forces any other nation is subject to. Year after the collapse will be as predictable as WWII was in 1919.
The President is a fink.
March 15th, 2016 at 1:13:28 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 146
Posts: 25010
Quote: AZDuffman
"Tech" has nothing to do with it. I am talking about social trends. .


Tech drives social trends now, and will do
so even more into the future. The US isn't
collapsing socially, it's morphing into a
new paradigm. Humans are extremely
adaptable to change, more than any other
creature.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
March 15th, 2016 at 2:38:00 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Quote: Evenbob
Tech drives social trends now, and will do
so even more into the future. The US isn't
collapsing socially, it's morphing into a
new paradigm. Humans are extremely
adaptable to change, more than any other
creature.


Tech does not drive social trends, certainly not in and of itself anyways. Tech for example did not drive the trend to single mothers. However, that trend means more people growing up in poverty. The USA is absolutely collapsing socially. Social decline has been happening since 1964, same time as the decline of the monetary system started. You are just so used to living in it you are not seeing it. Look around.
The President is a fink.
March 15th, 2016 at 3:03:44 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 146
Posts: 25010
Quote: AZDuffman
Social decline has been happening since 1964,


Don't even know what that means. In
1964 blacks were still second class
citizens. Now they're everywhere, in
every business and every public office.
Mexicans were fruit pickers. Now they're
business owners and holders of elected
office. The KKK in no more, effectively.

Why you think this is social decline is
a mystery.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
March 15th, 2016 at 3:14:02 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Quote: Evenbob
Don't even know what that means. In
1964 blacks were still second class
citizens. Now they're everywhere, in
every business and every public office.
Mexicans were fruit pickers. Now they're
business owners and holders of elected
office. The KKK in no more, effectively.

Why you think this is social decline is
a mystery.


Lets see, black society has already basically collapsed. Add up those on assistance of one kind or another and the incarceration rate and you get nearly 50% that cannot manage to support themselves. Illegal Mexicans are flooding local services, and any politician who does not say they love illegal immigration gets toasted for being "racist." People with ranches near the border have to put up with coyotes sneaking people across their land with no help from government. Oil pipeline workers have been endangered and the ROW for the lines becomes a drug highway.

More and more of society is drugged up and doped out, there is a massive heroin problem going on. Look at the decline in schools. In 1964 to think cops would have to patrol schools would be laughable, today it is common.

As to the KKK it has just been replaced by groups like BLM and others, it is just that minorities now are more likely to join such groups than they were then.

I maintain my position, you have spent 50 years watching decline move so slow that you think it is normal. Collapse is now starting. Get ready!
The President is a fink.
March 15th, 2016 at 3:37:58 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 146
Posts: 25010
Quote: AZDuffman
you have spent 50 years watching decline move so slow that you think it is normal.


It is normal. In 1900 there were far more
drug addicts per capita than now. Drunk
wife beating immigrants were the norm.
Blacks had no rights at all in many places,
& they were lynched regularly. Poverty in
this country was real, not the faux poverty
we have now, where they have air, a car,
a color TV, a computer, a fridge, and food
stamps. In 1900 they lived in true squalor
and filth, they had nothing.

I could go on and on. Was society in 'decline'
then? Nope. Just like now, it was morphing
into something else, just like it always is.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
March 15th, 2016 at 3:49:29 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Quote: Evenbob


I could go on and on. Was society in 'decline'
then? Nope. Just like now, it was morphing
into something else, just like it always is.


The difference is in 1900 society was improving. It peaked about 1964. Since then we have been in decline. There are so many signs of this. Back then you walked right on to an airplane with no search. Today you empty all pockets, take off your shoes, and then a metal detector and bomb-sniff test. That is only one more thing.

You seem to be implying just because some things are better that we cannot be in decline.
The President is a fink.
March 15th, 2016 at 5:23:23 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 146
Posts: 25010
Quote: AZDuffman

You seem to be implying just because some things are better that we cannot be in decline.


There is no decline, just adaptable change.
Society never rests, it's always becoming
something else as technology advances.
It was even changing in the days before
tech, before the printing press. It was just
harder to track. Because it's easier to track
now, you find it alarming. Also, every generation
thinks the world is going straight to hell
in the next generation, that's verifiable. And
funny.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
Page 5 of 7« First<234567>