UK General Election

Tomorrow is a General election in the UK, where all 650 government seats go up for election in a First Past the Post system. Projections are it'll be close between the two major parties (Labour (left) and Conservative (right)). The Liberal Democrats (centrist) will take a beating, and the Scottish Nationalists (SNP, left-wing independence movement) cleaning up in Scotland. The Green's will get one or two seats, UK Independence (right wing, anti-euro) getting a handful. Northern Ireland has it's own cluster of parties as well, some who go along with the Conservatives, some with their own strands and some never sit in parliament (Sinn Fein, left wing, pro-Ireland, political wing of the defunct IRA).

I'll be watching the results come in, as the swings and changes fascinate me. I expect another coalition... most likely Labour-SNP. Despite their arguements, they are a natural enough union on most things. And I don't this the Scots are going to get another independence vote again.

The 538 predicts (http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/)

Conservatives - 281
Labour - 266
Liberal Democrats - 26
SNP - 52 (of 59 seats in Scotland)
Democratic Unionists - 8
Sinn Fein - 5
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) - 3
Plaid Cmyru - 4
Greens - 1
UKIP - 1
Ulster Unionists - 1
Other - 2

The magic number for a majority is 326.
266 + 52 = 318 (Lab + SNP)
281 + 26 + 8 + 1 + 1= 317 (Con + LD + UKIP + Democratic Unionists + Ulster Unionists).

The Greens and Plaid Cmyru might join a Labour pact, for 323. Sinn Fein won't vote, so 324 would enough to carry a majority... so the SDLP might hold the balance.

It will be very precarious, it seems. The Liberal Democrats would probably have been able to join a Labour pact if they hadn't conceded several key items to the Conservatives when in coalition.

That's cute, Cess. Assuming Americans could even find Great Britain on a map, let alone know anything about their electoral process ;)

Quote: Face

That's cute, Cess. Assuming Americans could even find Great Britain on a map, let alone know anything about their electoral process ;)

Paco might be interested :p

Face, I bet for sure you could find it on a map, after all some gambling conventions have been held there.

And I bet you also know that its Prime Minister who 'calls' for an election within certain allowable times.

Coalitions are nominal only and very fragile. I'd type more but a cat is now resting on my left arm and I can't type that well.

Quote: Fleastiff

Face, I bet for sure you could find it on a map, after all some gambling conventions have been held there.

And I bet you also know that its Prime Minister who 'calls' for an election within certain allowable times.

Coalitions are nominal only and very fragile. I'd type more but a cat is now resting on my left arm and I can't type that well.

I bet Fleastiff is wrong on the election calls :) It's become a 5 year term, first Thursday in May, five years after the last election. Parliament can now call for an early vote, based on a 2/3rd call, or after a no-confidence motion.

This only became enacted recently (2011).

Coalitions are awesome if done well. Nothing much happens. I like parliaments where not much happens, and they can concentrate on debating important stuff that a broad range of parties agree on, and also spending time on fixing what is broken in their constituencies and the civil service.

Quote: TheCesspit

Paco might be interested :p

I'm still not convinced that Paco isn't the actual internet. He's admitted fault when it comes to spelling (here vs hear), which is a human trait. But, then again, that's just what a wily computer program would want me to think ;)

Quote: Fleastiff

Face, I bet for sure you could find it on a map, after all some gambling conventions have been held there.

I could. I think I'm better than the average American when it comes to geography, assuming it's not a location of unrest with ever changing borders.

But despite my ability to memorize a map, pretty much every single other thing I know about the UK is the direct result of my Top Gear obsession. No, not "pretty much" Every single thing. Yeah. I'm one of those people =/

Quote: TheCesspit

I bet Fleastiff is wrong on the election calls :)

6:5 on he is wrong about everything.

Quote: Fleastiff

6:5 on he is wrong about everything.

Most of life is 6:5 against....

I had a big smiley face, as only the most hardened UK election watcher would know the change in the rules this time around... The Canadian parliament has a similar sort of deal, where there's a date by when an election has to occur.,

Quote: Fleastiff

6:5 on he is wrong about everything.

I didn't know you were married : )

Exit Polls are in, and looking to be unexpected gains by the Conservatives.

Exit poll:
Conservatives: 316
Labour: 239
SNP: 58
Lib Dems: 10
Ukip: 2

A Con-Lib alliance would give them the scantest majority, as would an alliance with the Unionist Irish parties. Based on those numbers, at least... they gotta go count the result now.

58 seats by the SNP would represent every seat in Scotland bar one voting for the Scottish separatist party, which is interesting as only a small handful of seats voted for independence a few months ago.