Gigafactory

Quote: Dalex64

Ok, how much does it cost?

For gas, all we worry about is what we pay at the pump. I've never heard of anyone figuring out what portion of their taxes go to oil company subsidies, and work that into the price of their gas.

What subsidies would these be? If anything, oil companies pay more taxes in the form of extraction taxes on minerals.

Quote:

On the other hand, cost isn't the only thing considered by many people buying electric or a hybrid.

I think it rarely is, if it were, few if any would be sold. Even the most optimistic payback on hybrids is usually north of 100,000 miles, and that is just payback not figuring the time value of money. Of course many cars are not rational purchases. People often buy larger cars or trucks for the few times a year they pull a boat or haul. Convertibles for the times you can put the top down. All kinds of impractical styling.

"Mild hybrids" on large trucks save more gas than a Prius vs a gas-only subcompact. But the mild hybrid doesn't give the happy feelings the Prius does. The truck buyer wants a truck and probably actually does care about that payback period. All marketing.

Quote: Dalex64

What is the cost to the consumer for disposing of the battery at the end of its life?

It's an implicit cost in resale value.

For a good example I used the lowest price MSRP from the Nissan Web site for an energy efficient gasoline car . It looks to be the same basic car as the LEAF. They are both 5 seat 4 door models.

VERSA® SEDAN From $11,990 • 109-hp 1.6-liter 4-cylinder • 31/40 city/hwy mpg (Xtronic CVT®) 5 Seats / 4 Doors
2015 NISSAN LEAF®As low as $21,510 Net value after federal tax savings* 107 Horsepower 126/101 city/hwy MPGe* 5 Seats / 4 Doors

I used 36 mpg to represent the Versa, and 41 miles per day. The Nissan calculator says I can expect to save $432 per year driving the Leaf over the Sentra. So that is $2160 per 5 years operational savings.

But the LEAF costs me $9520 more. So over 5 years I save $2160 in operational costs. But I paid $9520 initial capital outlay. If I give the cars to charity, I am down about $7000 (a considerably high percentage of the price of a VERSA).

If I sell the cars in five years, I suspect that I will get the same price for VERSA or the LEAF if I still have a five year old battery. I can spend $5500 on a new battery, but I doubt that will increase my resale value by more than $6000.

Under the most widely optimistic forecasting does the Leaf cost me the same total outlay as the Versa over 5 years.

But even if they balance out, the environmental impact savings per dollar is much higher if I buy the VERSA and spend $9520 on new refrigerators, better washer, energy efficient windows, air conditioner with higher EER or LED lightbulbs. I think if I do all of that my savings on electric bill could easily be over $432 per year.

Edmunds says the payback of a leaf vs a versa is 9 years, if gas is 3 dollars a gallon.

That also depends on how much you drive a year, and again is only one thing to consider when buying electric or hybrid.

The payback on a camry vs hybrid camry was 4 years the last time I figured it out, but I don't remember how much gas was or how many miles a year were to be driven.


And really, since oil companies have a net tax bill, you can't consider what they recieve from everyone else in subsidies?

They are the ones with the tax bill. I assume we also pay for their share of the taxes at the pump, just like any other product from any other company that pays taxes.

I have two 17 year old cars. Maybe I'm not typical, but a 4 to 11 year payback period is something that I would consider. I'd also need to know how long the batteries in a hybrid or an electric would be expected to last, and how much it will cost to replace them, since it looks like I would easily keep the car for longer than the useful life of the battery.

Utility is important to me too - how many people and how much stuff you can fit in the car, and how far you can drive with it - so comparisons to the tiniest, most efficient gas or diesel cars on the market, or even to a motorcycle, isn't sufficient to just compare mpg and break-even cost.

My commute is short enough that an electric car would be practicalfor me. On the other hand, I'm currenty driving a "gas gizzling" minivan - not putting a whole lot of miles in it, which keeps the gas costs down, and I can put 4x8's in the back.

Quote: Dalex64

And really, since oil companies have a net tax bill, you can't consider what they recieve from everyone else in subsidies?

No. A subsidy is a direct payment or an artificially created or protected market. I have discussed this here before. Oil companies get accelerated tax write-offs because energy exploration is not the same as acquiring other assets. The upfront cost is enormous and is in all cash. You cannot take a mortgage when you drill a well same as when you build a building.

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I have two 17 year old cars. Maybe I'm not typical, but a 4 to 11 year payback period is something that I would consider. I'd also need to know how long the batteries in a hybrid or an electric would be expected to last, and how much it will cost to replace them, since it looks like I would easily keep the car for longer than the useful life of the battery.

Utility is important to me too - how many people and how much stuff you can fit in the car, and how far you can drive with it - so comparisons to the tiniest, most efficient gas or diesel cars on the market, or even to a motorcycle, isn't sufficient to just compare mpg and break-even cost.

My commute is short enough that an electric car would be practicalfor me. On the other hand, I'm currenty driving a "gas gizzling" minivan - not putting a whole lot of miles in it, which keeps the gas costs down, and I can put 4x8's in the back.

I keep my cars forever as well. And I get killer utility from them. I treated my hatchback like a pickup truck and my current SUV will this week become another work car, delivering lost baggage as I wait out the oil slump. That being said, I will not consider something with more than a 3 or so year payback. Just too much that can happen over even 3 years for me to lock-in. I plan to keep my cars that long, heck I just bought a 2002 I plan to keep 3-4 years. But last month I was working at a courthouse, this week I will be delivering loads and 1,000 mile weeks. If the bees really work out then I may need to switch to a P/U in 4 years. Currently the only thing I wish this one could do is the 4x8 in back.

Quote: Dalex64

Edmunds says the payback of a leaf vs a versa is 9 years, if gas is 3 dollars a gallon.

New York Times Calculates ROI on LEAF and Volt April 05, 2012
Buyers of a $28,421 Nissan LEAF will take 8.7 years to “break even” compared to $18,640 Nissan Versa based on $3.85 a gallon gas
Buyers of a $28,421 Nissan LEAF will take 5.0 years to “break even” compared to $18,640 Nissan Versa based on $5.00 a gallon gas
Buyers of a $31,767 Chevrolet Volt’s compared to a $19,925 Chevy Cruze Eco would take 26.6 years to recoup the extra cost.
Prius compared to a Camry is shown to have a 1.8-year payback period.
TDI version of the VW Jetta, versus the gas Jetta, is even quicker at 1.1 years.

While the NYT article mentions resale value in passing, it doesn’t include what these plug-ins might fetch as a used vehicle after several years of ownership—a major omission if you’re trying to figure out the cost of driving at the conclusion of an ownership period.

Quote: Pacomartin

New York Times Calculates ROI on LEAF and Volt April 05, 2012
Buyers of a $28,421 Nissan LEAF will take 8.7 years to “break even” compared to $18,640 Nissan Versa based on $3.85 a gallon gas
Buyers of a $28,421 Nissan LEAF will take 5.0 years to “break even” compared to $18,640 Nissan Versa based on $5.00 a gallon gas
Buyers of a $31,767 Chevrolet Volt’s compared to a $19,925 Chevy Cruze Eco would take 26.6 years to recoup the extra cost.
Prius compared to a Camry is shown to have a 1.8-year payback period.
TDI version of the VW Jetta, versus the gas Jetta, is even quicker at 1.1 years.

While the NYT article mentions resale value in passing, it doesn’t include what these plug-ins might fetch as a used vehicle after several years of ownership—a major omission if you’re trying to figure out the cost of driving at the conclusion of an ownership period.

WOW, honest from the NYT! Mark your calendar.

A few observations on their numbers. One is why compare a Prius and a Camry? They are different classes of car, they should have compared the Camry hybrid. If you compare a Camry and a Tundra you save money. But it is apples and bowling balls. I wonder were they get the numbers for the Volt because seems that could swing wildly. A person like me who commutes over 100 miles a day on occasion vs a person with a 20 mile each way commute will have differing ROI.

And yes, a simple diesel is the way to save money even if you save less fuel.

Uh-oh, it's growing. Tesla just bought another 1,200 acres next to the construction site, and they're considering 350 more. The gigafactory was supposed to consist of four modular "blocks," but Tesla is now planning to build seven.

Total new size: 24 million sq ft. If that turns out to be true, the Gigafactory could become the world's largest building in terms of footprint.

Quote: reno

Uh-oh, it's growing. Tesla just bought another 1,200 acres next to the construction site, and they're considering 350 more. The gigafactory was supposed to consist of four modular "blocks," but Tesla is now planning to build seven.

Total new size: 24 million sq ft. If that turns out to be true, the Gigafactory could become the world's largest building in terms of footprint.

This is getting a little weird. FoMoCo owned 2,000 acres at the famous Rouge plant. Said plant was an amazing place where coal went in one end and cars came out the other. It needed loads of space because it was dealing with huge, heavy industry and 100,000 workers at the peak.

For Tesla to need near as much land to make one product is strange. One product not near as vertically integrated or complex. Not needing near the labor. This is starting to smell like Musk needs something to keep the promotion game going. He already built a fancy recharge station that nobody uses to enhance his NEV credits. Now this.

Tesla investors need to start asking questions.

Quote: AZDuffman

For Tesla to need near as much land to make one product is strange. One product not near as vertically integrated or complex.

Couple points:

1) In the first week after they announced the Powerwall/Powerpack, they had over $800 million in pre-orders. (In fact, $625 million of that was from businesses & electric utilities.) That's extraordinary. Musk claimed the production of storage batteries alone could "easily" take up the entire capacity of the gigafactory.

2) We don't know what the appearance or specs of their $35,000 Model 3 will be. The Model 3 will probably not have the battery range of the Model S, it will probably not be as big as the Model S, and unlike the Model S, it will probably not be capable of 0 to 60 in 3.2 seconds. (Hey wouldn't it be cool to spend $35,000 on a car as fast as a $200,000 Lamborghini?)

But here's the thing: what really separates the Tesla Model S from a Prius is that the Tesla is incredibly sexy. (Ain't nothing sexy about a Prius.) So if the $35,000 Model 3 is almost as sexy as the $80,000 Model S, their sales will be astronomical, they won't be able to keep up the the demand. Hence the need for the largest factory in the world.

Quote: reno

Couple points:

1) In the first week after they announced the Powerwall/Powerpack, they had over $800 million in pre-orders. (In fact, $625 million of that was from businesses & electric utilities.) That's extraordinary. Musk claimed the production of storage batteries alone could "easily" take up the entire capacity of the gigafactory.

2) We don't know what the appearance or specs of their $35,000 Model 3 will be. The Model 3 will probably not have the battery range of the Model S, it will probably not be as big as the Model S, and unlike the Model S, it will probably not be capable of 0 to 60 in 3.2 seconds. (Hey wouldn't it be cool to spend $35,000 on a car as fast as a $200,000 Lamborghini?)

But here's the thing: what really separates the Tesla Model S from a Prius is that the Tesla is incredibly sexy. (Ain't nothing sexy about a Prius.) So if the $35,000 Model 3 is almost as sexy as the $80,000 Model S, their sales will be astronomical, they won't be able to keep up the the demand. Hence the need for the largest factory in the world.

It is still a huge factory for that. The additional 1,200 acres brings it to about 2,100 acres. This is over 1 mile by 3 miles! (640 acres is one "section" and 1 mile by 1 mile.)

Put in more perspective, the Eastman Kodak facility in Rochester, NY was 1,300 acres. It was one of the largest industrial facilities in the world and even then there was a large swath that EK never got around to using. Tesla may have big plans, but they do not add up to this much land. I still say something is up.

BTW: I don't see sales being "astronomical." EV sales are still a niche and will remain so until the range issue is solved.